Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Agelastus]

Well, either my local Tesco Home Delivery Service has a lot of drivers self-isolating* or people are stockpiling or people are just not willing to go out to eat at the moment.

Or all of the above.

There are no delivery slots available until next Wednesday evening.


*Not completely unbelievable - the alarm company that does our office asked to delay an appointment as they had several engineers self-isolating.

[Tamas]

Well, either my local Tesco Home Delivery Service has a lot of drivers self-isolating* or people are stockpiling or people are just not willing to go out to eat at the moment.

Or all of the above.

There are no delivery slots available until next Wednesday evening.


*Not completely unbelievable - the alarm company that does our office asked to delay an appointment as they had several engineers self-isolating.

Last evening we could not find an Asda pickup location or delivery slot open for the weekend.

Sainsburys still seems to have some, hopefully still will tonight when we place the order. But then of course, its Sainsburys.

[Tamas]

https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1238425621375651840

Unlike all other countries, the UK strategy aims to build herd immunity by allowing the steady spread of #COVID19.  The government argue it will block a second peak in several months time. Here are EIGHT questions about this HERD IMMUNITY strategy: (THREAD)

1. Will it impair efforts to restrict the immediate epidemic, and cause more infections and deaths in the near term? Evidence suggests people shed virus early, and those without symptoms may cause substantial spread... ..this argues for policies against mass gatherings, for school closures, and for strict national and local measures for social distancing.

2. Will it weaken containment systems (testing, screening, radiography, isolation)? China quickly built a robust nation-wide system of mobilised communities/workers for identifying cases promptly, isolating contacts + treating vulnerable people promptly to contain the outbreak.

3. Does coronavirus cause strong herd immunity or is it like flu where new strains emerge each year needing repeat vaccines? We have much to learn about Co-V immune responses. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/jmv.25685

4. Doesn't this herd immunity strategy conflict with WHO Policy? After the announcement of this being a pandemic, Dr Tedros, Director General WHO,  said "The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous."

5. Shouldn't we wait to see the China situation? They've contained  the epidemic after 7 weeks of intense national effort. Will their strengthened systems not contain outbreaks quickly? What is their herd immunity? We don't have serology available yet? It might be substantial.

6. Without an all-out national mobilisation plan for social distancing, are the UK government behavioural and nudge strategies really evidence-based to flatten the peak? Or simply based on models?

7. On the precautionary principle shouldn't we go all-out to snuff this UK epidemic out, with national mobilisation at all levels, using all possible preventive measures (whether evidence is strong, uncertain or weak) and worry about herd immunity when we have more evidence?

8. Vaccines are a safer way to develop herd immunity, without the risks associated with the disease itself.  Is it ethical to adopt a policy that threatens immediate casualties on the basis of an uncertain future benefit?

[Syt]

Well, either my local Tesco Home Delivery Service has a lot of drivers self-isolating* or people are stockpiling or people are just not willing to go out to eat at the moment.

Or all of the above.

There are no delivery slots available until next Wednesday evening.


*Not completely unbelievable - the alarm company that does our office asked to delay an appointment as they had several engineers self-isolating.

17th? Lucky you! I just checked, and shop A has the next slot free on the 24th, and shop B on the 26th. 

[Tamas]

I think I'll try to stick to click and collect. At least the store personnel there won't be visiting self-isolating people on a regular basis.

[Grey Fox]

Quebec schools are going to be close for 2 weeks.

We have 17 cases, 2 hospitalization, no death. Our curve is going to flat the fuck out.

The problem is kids will get cabin fever staying home. They'll beg and plead to be allowed to visit one friend, just one friend. Still mulling how to deal with that.

Social distancing is not social isolation.

[Legbiter]

https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1238425621375651840

Everybody else at this point in time is trying to close down as much as they can. The UK is volunteering to be the control group in this experiment. 

[Tamas]

https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1238425621375651840

Everybody else at this point in time is trying to close down as much as they can. The UK is volunteering to be the control group in this experiment. 

[Sheilbh]

I think I'll try to stick to click and collect. At least the store personnel there won't be visiting self-isolating people on a regular basis.

Deliveroo have introduced a "leave on the doorstep" option

I thought that guy's questions were good. Also from my non-expert basis Brian Cox's question makes a lot of sense:
"I understand approach of gvmt - CMO and GVSA have been impressive. But I still don't understand lack of testing. If you've had mild virus, you need to know you've had it. Then you can look after / visit relatives, get back to work etc. Usual caveat - I'm not an expert. Thoughts?"

Now having said that it looks like after a worrying decline in the number of daily tests earlier this week, that they are increasing again (2,500 yesterday, 3,000 today). But the focus seems to be moving to testing people who are hospitalised which makes sense to make sure you're properly monitoring the most serious cases. But I query given the wider approach.

[Tamas]

I think I'll try to stick to click and collect. At least the store personnel there won't be visiting self-isolating people on a regular basis.

Deliveroo have introduced a "leave on the doorstep" option

I thought that guy's questions were good. Also from my non-expert basis Brian Cox's question makes a lot of sense:
"I understand approach of gvmt - CMO and GVSA have been impressive. But I still don't understand lack of testing. If you've had mild virus, you need to know you've had it. Then you can look after / visit relatives, get back to work etc. Usual caveat - I'm not an expert. Thoughts?"

Now having said that it looks like after a worrying decline in the number of daily tests earlier this week, that they are increasing again (2,500 yesterday, 3,000 today). But the focus seems to be moving to testing people who are hospitalised which makes sense to make sure you're properly monitoring the most serious cases. But I query given the wider approach.

Yes one thing I have entirely no idea of, is how they are going to time the throttling of this epidemic, if their accuracy is in the range of "5000 to 10000 cases with 590 confirmed".

[Agelastus]

Well, either my local Tesco Home Delivery Service has a lot of drivers self-isolating* or people are stockpiling or people are just not willing to go out to eat at the moment.

Or all of the above.

There are no delivery slots available until next Wednesday evening.


*Not completely unbelievable - the alarm company that does our office asked to delay an appointment as they had several engineers self-isolating.

17th? Lucky you! I just checked, and shop A has the next slot free on the 24th, and shop B on the 26th. 

18th.

And to be honest I'm booking for the 19th anyway.

Although tomorrow I'll be doing two things I wasn't convinced until the last couple of days that I'd need to do -

(1) Telling my mother that it may be that she'll "see me when she sees me" instead of making the regular visits I have been making to The Princess Royal Spinal Injuries and Neurorehabilitation Centre on Saturdays and Sundays, and Tuesdays and Wednesdays.

(2) Asking the medical staff just how likely it is my mother will make it on to the list of people who will get an ICU bed if needed given her condition should she become infected and the beds have to be rationed...although I already know the answer to that if I'm honest.

[Sheilbh]

https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1238425621375651840

Everybody else at this point in time is trying to close down as much as they can. The UK is volunteering to be the control group in this experiment. 

I think the core point is in that interview I posted earlier (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blkDulsgh3Q&feature=youtu.be) and this Twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238152492178976769

From what I see the UK  Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, which draws from various UK universities, think that Covid-19 will become another coronavirus that just keeps circulating - it's already out there and it will probably become a seasonal illness like the common cold or seasonal flu. I'm not sure if that's right, but I'm a lawyer who studied English Literature so.....

I think we'll close down more because the social distancing measures will come. I also think political pressure and the public appetite for additional measures have changed. And I think a lot about the line by one of the experts I've read which was basically we should have the strongest measures the British public will support, because if you're doing more than that then they're either not going to be followed or they'll be a drain on emergency service resources enforcing them. I think the British public are now ahead of the government.

[crazy canuck]

I'm currently concerned about the US. What are the current projections for how things might go?

EVERYTHING IS GREAT
WE ARE WAY BETTER THAN EVERY OTHER COUNTRY!  WAY MORE PREPARED!  OUR TESTS ARE BEST AND EVERYONE CAN GET ONE!



(we're screwed)

One of the concerns now is the large numbers of Americans who come to Vancouver over the next couple of weeks.  No testing in the US so who knows what is coming North.  Build a wall and make the Americans pay for it?

[Sheilbh]

Yes one thing I have entirely no idea of, is how they are going to time the throttling of this epidemic, if their accuracy is in the range of "5000 to 10000 cases with 590 confirmed".

Yeah - I mean assuming with our level of testing (see here: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing) - there's probably about 10-20 times as many undiagnosed cases - it's expanding.

But obviously guidance is now - if you have symptoms stay at home for 7 days.

[Tamas]

Ohh, Eastern Europe...

There's a mobile phone video circulating of a lorry driver being checked on the Austria-Hungary border.

Border guard: Have you been to Italy?
Driver: yes, last week
Guard: you want to say no
Driver: I am coming from Austria now. Surface deliveries are not restricted yet are they?
Guard: No it isn't. It's more like entrance that's restricted.
Driver: Right
Guard: Now see, if you've been to Italy the past two weeks, then you need to declare it, then you'll be put into quarantine at your
           home. So, if you don't have any symptoms, and its been a week ago, let's just say that you weren't, and drive on
Driver: Well yeah I mean, if you pay attention, use mask, hand sanitiser...
Guard: Some people got shafted they told us they spent a couple of days there and now they are locked up at home for two weeks.
          That's no help to you either
Driver: No of course not, thanks a lot
Guard: The point is, don't tell you have been to Italy
Driver: Yes I understand, thank you!