The Impeachment of President Donald J Trump

[The Brain]

Trump will just pardon Stone. Banana republic ftw.

Ambassador Yovanovitch's testimony today was something else. She got a standing ovation at the end, from members of the public, never seen that before. I wonder how senate republicans can look themselves in the mirror.

The whole thing is nauseating.  While Trump has some genuine supporters in the House, most Republicans are simply terrified of him.  It's like a trial were the defendant is pointing a gun at the jury box the entire time.

What are they afraid he'll do to them?

Make them lose their jobs.

Oh noes!!111

[Razgovory]

Trump will just pardon Stone. Banana republic ftw.

Ambassador Yovanovitch's testimony today was something else. She got a standing ovation at the end, from members of the public, never seen that before. I wonder how senate republicans can look themselves in the mirror.

The whole thing is nauseating.  While Trump has some genuine supporters in the House, most Republicans are simply terrified of him.  It's like a trial were the defendant is pointing a gun at the jury box the entire time.

What are they afraid he'll do to them?

He's threaten to primary anyone who doesn't defend him.

[Sheilbh]

I don't think that's the right reason on this. He's bluster - he's got involved in primaries but I don't think Trump's actually gone out and primaried any incumbents. This party takeover isn't, I don't think, like the Tea Party.

Though I could be totally wrong.

[Razgovory]

I don't think that's the right reason on this. He's bluster - he's got involved in primaries but I don't think Trump's actually gone out and primaried any incumbents. This party takeover isn't, I don't think, like the Tea Party.

Though I could be totally wrong.

What do you think it is?

[Sheilbh]

I don't know.

I think part of it is that I think the Republican parties a fairly miserable place right now if you're not with Trump which is why over the last two cycles, I think, there's been record levels of retirement. So some of it is attrition - there's something similar happening here - and that leads to Trumpier candidates.

I also think they're party men fundamentally so they don't want to cause each other difficulty and get ahead of an issue, like Flake and Corker did. Also they will believe in their party. But it's changed and they are trying to work out how they get to exercise power/influence in it. At the moment the way to have power or influence is sycophancy, because unlike the Tea Party they can't become stars. The old influence networks and gatekeepers - which the Tea Party had too - have broken down, it's now just Trump and his audience.

But I've just not seen any senate level decapitations like you saw with the Tea Party. In part, possibly because Trump is so transactional and it's quite easy to get him on side if you just praise loudly on TV.

[Admiral Yi]

I think it's simple math.  As long as Donald's approval stays above 25 law makers can expect to be punished by voters for crossing Trump, at least in the primary.

[Sheilbh]

I think that's a big factor too. As long as he isn't either losing his base or hurting the Republican base a lot will stay on side - again party men.

But I don't think it's fear. He's remaking the party (largely through attrition/example) but as with everything isn't competent or engaged enough to be doing it actively.

[Razgovory]

But I've just not seen any senate level decapitations like you saw with the Tea Party. In part, possibly because Trump is so transactional and it's quite easy to get him on side if you just praise loudly on TV.

I don't know what "senate level decapitations" means.  Getting on Trump's good side is harder than it looks.  Trump is both paranoid and jealous and eventually turns on his own people.

The big thing, though, is that sycophancy is not actually getting Republican senators and house members much influence or power.  For all his toadying, Lindsey Graham isn't actually getting anything in return.  That was plainly obvious last month with the Turkish-Kurdish crisis.  Years of work vanished on the whim of Donald Trump.  Nobody has been able to mitigate Trump's disastrous ideas.  Everyone who has tried has failed or lost their jobs.

I agree that morale is very low, but a lot of it has to do with shame and frustration.  I'm not sure what drives his most vocal defenders.  Devin Nunes appears to lack shame, Louis Gohmert is too stupid to understand what he doing, and it turns out that Jim Jordan has had a long career of failing to notice crimes happening under his nose.  There is a few more with darker intentions, they hope that they could become the leaders of a new nationalist party.  The rest of them have been relegated to being mere ornaments constantly ordered to defend actions they oppose.

[Admiral Yi]

I've disagreed before and I'll disagree again.  Within the space of a day Trump went from green lighting Turkey and calling Kurds fags who didn't help enough at Verdun to threatening the mother of all sanctions if Turkey didn't wise up.  The intervening event was Graham and some other dude introducing anti-Turkish, pro-Kurdish legislation in the Senate.

[Sheilbh]

By Senate decapitations I mean what the Tea Party did: Mike Lee beating Bob Bennett, Miller beating Murkowski. They took down establishment Republicans and were to be feared. I can't think of an example of that - it's been attrition and retirement.

Also I get your point, but you're only measuring power or influence as the extent to which you can mitigate Trump. If you are able to act as a guard-rail or bend him to your will then you're succeeding. But that's not how any President behaves, it's just a lot of Trump's views (especially on foreign policy) and his behaviour are so far out of the norm.

It depends who those defenders are. Some probably like him or are true believers, some will be craven in front of whatever is the dominant mood in the Republican party (I always think of Hannity who has gone from ultra neo-con, to supporting immigration reform, to Trumpist). I think a lot just feel there's safety in numbers and they don't want to be "prominent Trump critic" or Nunes.

[Sheilbh]

I've disagreed before and I'll disagree again.  Within the space of a day Trump went from green lighting Turkey and calling Kurds fags who didn't help enough at Verdun to threatening the mother of all sanctions if Turkey didn't wise up.  The intervening event was Graham and some other dude introducing anti-Turkish, pro-Kurdish legislation in the Senate.

How much of that is the intervention of Graham versus the threat of an intervention by the Senate? Is it that Graham's approach has worked, or is it that he's ultimately a legislator and can get things to happen?

I also think this happened before I think the first time he tried to pull out of Syria and the Senate overwhelmingly passed a resolution so he backed down for eighteen months? Have a vague memory of something along those lines.

[Admiral Yi]

How much of that is the intervention of Graham versus the threat of an intervention by the Senate? Is it that Graham's approach has worked, or is it that he's ultimately a legislator and can get things to happen?

I also think this happened before I think the first time he tried to pull out of Syria and the Senate overwhelmingly passed a resolution so he backed down for eighteen months? Have a vague memory of something along those lines.

I don't understand the distinction you're trying to draw.

[Sheilbh]

Wondering if you think it was a function of Graham's personal relationship and personal diplomacy or his institutional power as a Senator with a bit of influence?

[frunk]

I've disagreed before and I'll disagree again.  Within the space of a day Trump went from green lighting Turkey and calling Kurds fags who didn't help enough at Verdun to threatening the mother of all sanctions if Turkey didn't wise up.  The intervening event was Graham and some other dude introducing anti-Turkish, pro-Kurdish legislation in the Senate.

By that point the horse was already out of the barn.  Turkey invaded and the US left.  Our leverage is gone and the only reason Turkey slowed up was due to the Kurds making a deal with Russia/Syria.  So sure Trump protested loudly but Turkey got what they wanted from Trump.  So sure they got Trump to say different things, but he didn't reverse course or effectively amend the problem.

[Admiral Yi]

Wondering if you think it was a function of Graham's personal relationship and personal diplomacy or his institutional power as a Senator with a bit of influence?

Closer to the second.  Trump needs to keep 34 Senators on side to avoid the boot.  Trump, in my estimation, feared that a bill saying WeHeartKurds would threaten that blocking vote in the Senate.

I don't think anything else can explain his 24 hour, 180 degree turn.