The Impeachment of President Donald J Trump

[Richard Hakluyt]

2/3 required in the senate I believe.

So about 40% of the Republican senators would need to have some modicum of republican virtue to find Trump guilty.

Doesn't sound likely to me given past form; but what do our Americans think?

[Admiral Yi]

I'm offering 1/4 on conviction.

After all I did send an email to Chuck Grassley begging him to impeach.

[dps]

25% chance?  Too high, I think.  Heck, I'm not even sure the House will pass any articles of impeachment. Sure, a lot of the House Democrats want to do so, but I think some of the leadership still kind of wants to see what happens next November before they do anything.  (For the record, I think that would be a terrible strategy;  if you think there's enough there to impeach, do it after the election would send all sorts of wrong signals if Trump wins re-election, and be pointless if he loses.)

[garbon]

I didn't expect him to so openly engage in behaviour akin to what he is facing an impeachment investigation for.

Because you are still making the mistake of assuming he has the mental apparatus of a normal adult human being.

Well I hope more people adopt my stance than yours as otherwise, we're in for another 4 years if this is just seen as Trump as usual.

[DGuller]

2/3 required in the senate I believe.

So about 40% of the Republican senators would need to have some modicum of republican virtue to find Trump guilty.

Doesn't sound likely to me given past form; but what do our Americans think?

It's probably non-zero chance.  We shouldn't underestimate the ability of Trump to brainwash people into being true believers, but I still think the majority of Republican Senators are just scared shitless, and just need favorable political winds to pounce on Trump.  They can probably still do their anti-democratic shit without Trump.

[grumbler]

I agree with DG.  I think that the leading Republicans hate actually having to eat all the shit they eat while pretending it is ice cream, and would turn on Trump in a second if they thought it would promote their control of the judicial branch.

[The Brain]

You can't be a Republican in 2019 if you don't like being anally penetrated by Trump. Republicans are garbage and will always be garbage.

[Tamas]

You can't be a Republican in 2019 if you don't like being anally penetrated by Trump. Republicans are garbage and will always be garbage.

[Tonitrus]

Perhaps the biggest factor the GOP might have in punting Trump is how it would affect their own re-election chances.  It might play well with anti-Trump swing voters...but if is thought enough of the hard-core Trump fans would become enraged enough to protest vote or boycott, it would make those with close election margins very worried indeed.

[Barrister]

If Trump's numbers turn against him strongly enough, the GOP Senate will have no problem removing him from office.  None of them actually like or respect the man - they're just all afraid of getting primaried by Trump supporters.

Note that "If" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in the above sentence though.

[Valmy]

I am just being bombarded with fearmongering and Trump celebrating propaganda right now on youtube. I guess the machine needs to be warmed up a year early.

[Sheilbh]

If Trump's numbers turn against him strongly enough, the GOP Senate will have no problem removing him from office.  None of them actually like or respect the man - they're just all afraid of getting primaried by Trump supporters.

Note that "If" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in the above sentence though.

Totally agree. And I think if they move they'll move quickly and ruthlessly.

[frunk]

If Trump's numbers turn against him strongly enough, the GOP Senate will have no problem removing him from office.  None of them actually like or respect the man - they're just all afraid of getting primaried by Trump supporters.

Note that "If" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in the above sentence though.

People keep comparing it to the Nixon Impeachment, where once public opinion turned support changed rapidly.  To me Fox, the Republican controlled propaganda organ, is going to make it much harder to get to the point where public opinion makes that shift.

[Sheilbh]

I think you've got that the wrong way round. I think the Republican party is the political wing of Fox. If the polls turn in a big way I think Fox would dump him.

[Tonitrus]

I think you've got that the wrong way round. I think the Republican party is the political wing of Fox. If the polls turn in a big way I think Fox would dump him.

But Fox is all about embracing disgraced conservatives...they would only dump him and support impeachment only in order to give him his own Fox News show.