Trains, Banks and Public/Private Ownership - Prev.Predict UK Gen.Election Result

Started by mongers, June 04, 2017, 05:18:02 PM

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What will be the size of Theresa May's majority in the Commons

150+ MPs
0 (0%)
101-149
0 (0%)
81-100
2 (5.9%)
51-80
4 (11.8%)
31-50
6 (17.6%)
16-30
5 (14.7%)
1-15
2 (5.9%)
Zero - (Even number of MPs)
1 (2.9%)
Minority conservative government
9 (26.5%)
Labour and other parties coalition
2 (5.9%)
Labour majority government
3 (8.8%)

Total Members Voted: 33

Zanza

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on June 09, 2017, 12:42:09 PM
The problem with Sanders/Corbyn style bribe policies isn't that they can't win elections, but that many countries have already tried them and had to reform them 20-30 years later. It's weird some people want to ignore that history.
On the other hand the Tories stand for mean-spirited austerity, which has also not really been successful anywhere ever as it is hard to even define what a success of such a policy could look like.

OttoVonBismarck

I don't know that it's any more mean spirited than the sort of austerity Merkel has been pushing onto Europe for half a decade now; but I do think the Brits have gone down a path of questionable austerity. I mean there's decent evidence that America has had the economic success since 2008 that it has had in large part because we didn't go down the austerity path; and I'm not even really a Keynesian but I do think it's pretty obvious that you don't spur growth by taking money out of the pockets of working class families.

OttoVonBismarck

Quote from: garbon on June 09, 2017, 12:45:08 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on June 09, 2017, 12:42:09 PM
The problem with Sanders/Corbyn style bribe policies isn't that they can't win elections, but that many countries have already tried them and had to reform them 20-30 years later. It's weird some people want to ignore that history.

Many people weren't born then?

I mean I used the term history for a reason, since history is something we can learn about without directly having lived it.

Solmyr

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on June 09, 2017, 01:00:37 PM
I do think it's pretty obvious that you don't spur growth by taking money out of the pockets of working class families.

What kind of a conservative are you? :blink:

Barrister

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on June 09, 2017, 01:00:37 PM
I don't know that it's any more mean spirited than the sort of austerity Merkel has been pushing onto Europe for half a decade now; but I do think the Brits have gone down a path of questionable austerity. I mean there's decent evidence that America has had the economic success since 2008 that it has had in large part because we didn't go down the austerity path; and I'm not even really a Keynesian but I do think it's pretty obvious that you don't spur growth by taking money out of the pockets of working class families.

I don't think anyone ever doubted that you can use deficit financing in the short term to achieve economic success.

The USA has a nineteen trillion dollar debt, with a national deficit of just over 500 billion dollars.  Lets see how well the US does a generation from now with that kind of debt level.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Zanza

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on June 09, 2017, 01:00:37 PM
I don't know that it's any more mean spirited than the sort of austerity Merkel has been pushing onto Europe for half a decade now; but I do think the Brits have gone down a path of questionable austerity.
Yes, fairly comparable. Merkel and Schäuble could only do that, because the pain wasn't felt at home. The Tories somehow do it at home.

fromtia

I'm sure this has been hashed out on Languish endlessly, but I don't think its at all accurate to try to frame brexit as a random act that the British decided upon. Its the direct result of a decades long split on Europe within the UKs Conservative party made manifest by a profoundly incompetent PM and foisted upon the country by a bizarre referendum on wether or not people like immigration. The whole shambles is entirely the conjuring of the Conservative right wing.
"Just be nice" - James Dalton, Roadhouse.

Zanza

Quote from: Barrister on June 09, 2017, 01:10:32 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on June 09, 2017, 01:00:37 PM
I don't know that it's any more mean spirited than the sort of austerity Merkel has been pushing onto Europe for half a decade now; but I do think the Brits have gone down a path of questionable austerity. I mean there's decent evidence that America has had the economic success since 2008 that it has had in large part because we didn't go down the austerity path; and I'm not even really a Keynesian but I do think it's pretty obvious that you don't spur growth by taking money out of the pockets of working class families.

I don't think anyone ever doubted that you can use deficit financing in the short term to achieve economic success.

The USA has a nineteen trillion dollar debt, with a national deficit of just over 500 billion dollars.  Lets see how well the US does a generation from now with that kind of debt level.
Britain doesn't seem to do much better on debt or deficit, so based on those criteria, the American Keynesian policy seems more sensible than British austerity as at least the Americans "get" something for that debt. And the issue in the US is not the level of spending but the too low revenues.

Zanza

Quote from: fromtia on June 09, 2017, 01:29:01 PM
I'm sure this has been hashed out on Languish endlessly, but I don't think its at all accurate to try to frame brexit as a random act that the British decided upon. Its the direct result of a decades long split on Europe within the UKs Conservative party made manifest by a profoundly incompetent PM and foisted upon the country by a bizarre referendum on wether or not people like immigration. The whole shambles is entirely the conjuring of the Conservative right wing.
I think it is the generally accepted view that Cameron put party before country and lost his gamble.

The Brain

Women want me. Men want to be with me.

Josquius

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on June 09, 2017, 12:42:09 PM
The problem with Sanders/Corbyn style bribe policies isn't that they can't win elections, but that many countries have already tried them and had to reform them 20-30 years later. It's weird some people want to ignore that history.

It's not a bribe.
It's rational thinking on what is best for the country. Many many labour voters are to be found in situations where they don't stand to get much in the way of  the promised "free stuff".
That's the difference between labour and the Conservatives.
The tories think for today. How can they win the next election. How can they setup more opportunities for business to leech from the public purse.
Labour think of the bigger picture. They look to the long term. What effect is this inequality having? How does the future look if we continue on this course?
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HVC

Both spectrums "bribe". Conservatives "bribe" corporations so that they get donations, and liberals "bribe" the public so they get votes. It depends one who you'd rather the government err towards, corporations or people.
Being lazy is bad; unless you still get what you want, then it's called "patience".
Hubris must be punished. Severely.

Valmy

#312
Quote from: Solmyr on June 09, 2017, 01:02:46 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on June 09, 2017, 01:00:37 PM
I do think it's pretty obvious that you don't spur growth by taking money out of the pockets of working class families.

What kind of a conservative are you? :blink:


An American one. They don't believe in balanced budgets. Even getting close to a balanced budget just means you need to slash taxes. Got to keep that debt nice and high so you can starve the beast and screw future generations ever more decisively.

I may not be fair to Otto personally there :P
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Valmy

Quote from: fromtia on June 09, 2017, 01:29:01 PM
I'm sure this has been hashed out on Languish endlessly, but I don't think its at all accurate to try to frame brexit as a random act that the British decided upon. Its the direct result of a decades long split on Europe within the UKs Conservative party made manifest by a profoundly incompetent PM and foisted upon the country by a bizarre referendum on wether or not people like immigration. The whole shambles is entirely the conjuring of the Conservative right wing.

The Conservatives didn't even want it. They were just trying to find a way to stop the threat of the UKIP group so they could win one election.

Whoops.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

HVC

why do UK politicians keep making bad calls. is it the polling that sucks or something?
Being lazy is bad; unless you still get what you want, then it's called "patience".
Hubris must be punished. Severely.