What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[grumbler]

That can go both ways. I can see a scenario where he gets a few states to go along with him and delay/cancel the election, then uses that to claim the election isn't legitimate because not every state voted.

I can see him declaring his election loss illegitimate no matter the circumstances.  I foresee his claims getting a lot less sympathy if he claims that the reason he didn't get elected is because friendly politicians prevented his supporters from voting for him.

[grumbler]

From Robert Costa - Trump is apparently on a call with Governors and it is going well:

27m
I'm in touch with someone who's on the governors' call with President Trump right now. They and others listening in are alarmed. The president is urging governors to take back the streets, not be "weak," and use force as the nation faces growing racial unrest.
25m
More: President Trump just berated governors and mayors for how they are handling the protests, calling them "fools," per person on the call.
21m
Aides to governors say the president continues to talk. One describes it as a "rant." Says he keeps talking about the need to "dominate" the protests.
11m
President Trump is now encouraging the nation's governors, repeatedly, to use the military to deal with protests, per a person on the call. Moments ago.

Sounds fairly unhinged  Trump.

FTFY

[Sheilbh]

I am slightly alarmed at the prospect of Trump (and McConnell) as a lame duck if he loses, but still has the powers of the presidency

[The Brain]

The basic problem that I see with self-coups is that it is not apparent what action will be the coup.  If you're defying the president, are you defying the coup attempt or are you committing the coup yourself?  Will there be a uniformity of conclusion and conviction on which one it is when the shit hits the fan?  Every single military person may be acting out of their duty, but what will they interpret their duty to be?

Trump unambiguously stops being President on 20 Jan 2021 if there are no elections.  Since there won't be a VP or Speaker of the House with no elections, the acting President will be the person the Democrats in the Senate select as the President pro tem.  In the case of no elections, this is not ambiguous.

There also won't be any murders in the US on 20 Jan 2021. Murder is unambiguously against the law.

NB I think the by far likeliest scenario is a normal election with, should Trump lose, a normal (though incompetent and tiresome) transfer from Trump to the poor sap who gets to take up the befouled office. But just because the law says something doesn't always mean it happens that way.

[Caliga]

From Robert Costa - Trump is apparently on a call with Governors and it is going well:

27m
I'm in touch with someone who's on the governors' call with President Trump right now. They and others listening in are alarmed. The president is urging governors to take back the streets, not be "weak," and use force as the nation faces growing racial unrest.
25m
More: President Trump just berated governors and mayors for how they are handling the protests, calling them "fools," per person on the call.
21m
Aides to governors say the president continues to talk. One describes it as a "rant." Says he keeps talking about the need to "dominate" the protests.
11m
President Trump is now encouraging the nation's governors, repeatedly, to use the military to deal with protests, per a person on the call. Moments ago.

Sounds fairly unhinged.

I hope someone is recording this.

[Hamilcar]

All members of the US military and naval forces, and of the National Guard, also swear, first and foremost, to support and defend the US Constitution.  It's not like WW2 Germany, where the military swore a personal oath to Adolf Hitler.  If the president of the US sets aside the constitution, his government is full to bursting with people whose sworn duty it would become to bring him down.

Anyone actually following Trump's orders in the aftermath of his overthrowing the constitution would be breaking the law and perhaps committing treason.  No one is going to risk that on the off chance that Trump's coup might work.

This kind of naivety used to be adorable, but this is the real world. American isn't special.

[garbon]

All members of the US military and naval forces, and of the National Guard, also swear, first and foremost, to support and defend the US Constitution.  It's not like WW2 Germany, where the military swore a personal oath to Adolf Hitler.  If the president of the US sets aside the constitution, his government is full to bursting with people whose sworn duty it would become to bring him down.

Anyone actually following Trump's orders in the aftermath of his overthrowing the constitution would be breaking the law and perhaps committing treason.  No one is going to risk that on the off chance that Trump's coup might work.

This kind of naivety used to be adorable, but this is the real world. American isn't special.

Oh look, the hysterical one returns.

[grumbler]

There also won't be any murders in the US on 20 Jan 2021. Murder is unambiguously against the law.

  Yes, the expiration of a term of office is exactly like murder!

[grumbler]

This kind of naivety used to be adorable, but this is the real world. American isn't special.

Oh look, the hysterical one returns.

And his kind of strawman argument (claiming that my argument is that "America is special") used to be kinda cute... but he wore out that cuteness in about 1995.  Not sure why he thought it would fly in 2020.

[FunkMonk]

From Robert Costa - Trump is apparently on a call with Governors and it is going well:

27m
I'm in touch with someone who's on the governors' call with President Trump right now. They and others listening in are alarmed. The president is urging governors to take back the streets, not be "weak," and use force as the nation faces growing racial unrest.
25m
More: President Trump just berated governors and mayors for how they are handling the protests, calling them "fools," per person on the call.
21m
Aides to governors say the president continues to talk. One describes it as a "rant." Says he keeps talking about the need to "dominate" the protests.
11m
President Trump is now encouraging the nation's governors, repeatedly, to use the military to deal with protests, per a person on the call. Moments ago.

Sounds fairly unhinged.

"Oh yes plz dominate me Daddy Trump!"

[Razgovory]

Hey, remember when Trump committed a clearly impeachable offense and the government worked just as it should and he was removed from office?

[DGuller]

Trump unambiguously stops being President on 20 Jan 2021 if there are no elections.  Since there won't be a VP or Speaker of the House with no elections, the acting President will be the person the Democrats in the Senate select as the President pro tem.  In the case of no elections, this is not ambiguous.

I desperately hope you're right, and more than that I hope this discussion would turn out to be completely moot.  I just don't think political reality will ever have the certainty of a computer program.  It turns out that very few things are unambiguous in our politics if a madman with an army of supporters refuses to acknowledge them as unambiguous.  Trump has been pretty successful in defying facts previously deemed to be unambiguous, simply by saying it isn't so.  "Constitution says this?  No, it doesn't."

At its most basic, the leaders are who the followers say they are, however they come to that conclusion.  The rules and norms are there just to make this dynamic less chaotic and volatile, but those don't survive without majority's continued buy-in.

[Habbaku]

I am more concerned about ensuring Trump is beaten in the election than what comes immediately after. If the election is won by him, everything after is moot anyway.

[grumbler]

Trump unambiguously stops being President on 20 Jan 2021 if there are no elections.  Since there won't be a VP or Speaker of the House with no elections, the acting President will be the person the Democrats in the Senate select as the President pro tem.  In the case of no elections, this is not ambiguous.

I desperately hope you're right, and more than that I hope this discussion would turn out to be completely moot.  I just don't think political reality will ever have the certainty of a computer program.  It turns out that very few things are unambiguous in our politics if a madman with an army of supporters refuses to acknowledge them as unambiguous.  Trump has been pretty successful in defying facts previously deemed to be unambiguous, simply by saying it isn't so.  "Constitution says this?  No, it doesn't."

At its most basic, the leaders are who the followers say they are, however they come to that conclusion.  The rules and norms are there just to make this dynamic less chaotic and volatile, but those don't survive without majority's continued buy-in.

I am not at all arguing that trump's supporters will all accept the unambiguous fact that he loses the power of the presidency at noon on the 20th of January.  What i am noting is that his government ministers and the Congress will not risk going to jail to maintain Trump's delusions that he is still president. 

Nor do I believe, for instance, that, when the new president tells the Secret Service White House detail to remove the ex-president from the Oval Office, they will say, "no, Mr. President, we are giving up our careers and pensions to ensure that that private citizen in there can continue to pretend that he is President."

It can be fun to play the "how spooky would it be if Trump refused to admit defeat," but to imagine that there are thousands, or even hundreds, of government officials willing to go to jail for trespassing and impersonating law enforcement officials to support such a Trump attempt isn't credible. 

[grumbler]

I am more concerned about ensuring Trump is beaten in the election than what comes immediately after. If the election is won by him, everything after is moot anyway.

Exactly.  Everything that Trump does after the election is as a lame duck, and no one lays down their life to make sure a lame duck gets their way, because they know that payback is a motherfucker.