What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Hamilcar]

This kind of naivety used to be adorable, but this is the real world. American isn't special.

Oh look, the hysterical one returns.

And his kind of strawman argument (claiming that my argument is that "America is special") used to be kinda cute... but he wore out that cuteness in about 1995.  Not sure why he thought it would fly in 2020.

Oh wow, such counter argument. Much wow.

[The Brain]

FWIW America is special af.

[Barrister]

Trump unambiguously stops being President on 20 Jan 2021 if there are no elections.  Since there won't be a VP or Speaker of the House with no elections, the acting President will be the person the Democrats in the Senate select as the President pro tem.  In the case of no elections, this is not ambiguous.

I desperately hope you're right, and more than that I hope this discussion would turn out to be completely moot.  I just don't think political reality will ever have the certainty of a computer program.  It turns out that very few things are unambiguous in our politics if a madman with an army of supporters refuses to acknowledge them as unambiguous.  Trump has been pretty successful in defying facts previously deemed to be unambiguous, simply by saying it isn't so.  "Constitution says this?  No, it doesn't."

At its most basic, the leaders are who the followers say they are, however they come to that conclusion.  The rules and norms are there just to make this dynamic less chaotic and volatile, but those don't survive without majority's continued buy-in.

I am not at all arguing that trump's supporters will all accept the unambiguous fact that he loses the power of the presidency at noon on the 20th of January.  What i am noting is that his government ministers and the Congress will not risk going to jail to maintain Trump's delusions that he is still president. 

Nor do I believe, for instance, that, when the new president tells the Secret Service White House detail to remove the ex-president from the Oval Office, they will say, "no, Mr. President, we are giving up our careers and pensions to ensure that that private citizen in there can continue to pretend that he is President."

It can be fun to play the "how spooky would it be if Trump refused to admit defeat," but to imagine that there are thousands, or even hundreds, of government officials willing to go to jail for trespassing and impersonating law enforcement officials to support such a Trump attempt isn't credible.

The flaw in that argument is nobody goes to jail is Trump stays in power - Trump controls the DOJ and simply orders nobody to be charged.

Plus I can think of ways for Trump to throw the election more-or-less "legally".  Lets say Biden wins Florida, and it's the tipping point.  Florida has unified Republican government at the state level.  The state claims without evidence voter fraud and changes how it selects electors, and just puts up Republicans.

Which is why I don't just want to see Trump defeated.  He needs to be humiliated.  The margin needs to be so large not even his supporters believe his lies about fraud.  The defeat needs to be so bad it repudiates the idea of "Trumpism".

[Razgovory]

We've already had the test of career government officials standing up to Trump breaking the law.  It didn't go well.  Who is left in the Federal government that says "I want to be the next Alexander Vindman"?

[Barrister]

We've already had the test of career government officials standing up to Trump breaking the law.  It didn't go well.  Who is left in the Federal government that says "I want to be the next Alexander Vindman"?

I'm surprised that guy is still in the military.  I know he was kicked out of his White House job, but he's still with the Army I believe.

[Berkut]

The governor of Gerogia just cancelled an election for a new SC justice, and is simply going to appoint one himself instead.

Nobody seems to care enough to stop if from happening.

[grumbler]

The flaw in that argument is nobody goes to jail is Trump stays in power - Trump controls the DOJ and simply orders nobody to be charged.

So Trump stays in power.. forever?  The nobodies not going to jail develop some kind of an immortality drug? 

Plus, Trump doesn't control the DOJ after noon on January 20th.  The new president orders Trump and everyone who is illegally in the White House to be arrested.  Do you honestly think that everyone in the government will betray their oaths?  That the Secret Service will obey the fake president over the real one?

Plus I can think of ways for Trump to throw the election more-or-less "legally".  Lets say Biden wins Florida, and it's the tipping point.  Florida has unified Republican government at the state level.  The state claims without evidence voter fraud and changes how it selects electors, and just puts up Republicans.

Florida can't change the way they select electors after the election.  The Constitution requires electors to be selected on the designated day.

Which is why I don't just want to see Trump defeated.  He needs to be humiliated.  The margin needs to be so large not even his supporters believe his lies about fraud.  The defeat needs to be so bad it repudiates the idea of "Trumpism".

You are not alone there.  I want the Republican defeat to be so resounding that the party itself is discredited and splinters.

[Habbaku]

The governor of Gerogia just cancelled an election for a new SC justice, and is simply going to appoint one himself instead.

Nobody seems to care enough to stop if from happening.

The provisions in the law existed that enabled that, however. No such provision exists for the President of the USA unilaterally declaring there will be no election in 50 States for his office.

[The Minsky Moment]

Great, but there isn't actually a legal mechanism for it.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/21/21188152/trump-cancel-november-election-constitution-coronavirus

There isn't a legal mechanism to take funds from the military to fund border fencing but Trump did it anyways.
There isn't a legal mechanism for suspending the Refugee treaty but Trump did it anyways.
There isn't a legal mechanism for halting aid appropriations without disclosure but Trump did it anyways.
There isn't a legal mechanism for banning entry of people of religious grounds but Trump pulled it off for a few weeks before the courts acted.

We have ample precedent now that the President doesn't care a whit about legal mechanisms and only determined opposition and use of counter-mechanisms of power can stop him.

I think Oex's point on this is well taken.  One must consider the possibility and prepare for it. Because an attempt is conceivable.

[The Brain]

I find that the "a coup would be illegal so therefore there cannot be a coup" argument doesn't 100% put the issue to rest.

[The Minsky Moment]

I find that the "a coup would be illegal so therefore there cannot be a coup" argument doesn't 100% put the issue to rest.

Didn't work so well for Weimar.  There is a whiff of Weimarism in the American air now, including the dangerous focus on the scope of Presidential emergency authority.

[grumbler]

The governor of Gerogia just cancelled an election for a new SC justice, and is simply going to appoint one himself instead.

Nobody seems to care enough to stop if from happening.

I think people did care enough to try to stop it from happening, but the Georgia courts (including their supreme court) ruled in favor of the governor's position.

[grumbler]

I find that the "a coup would be illegal so therefore there cannot be a coup" argument doesn't 100% put the issue to rest.

And when someone makes that argument, you'll be ready!

[Grey Fox]

Grumbler, ever the optimist.

[The Brain]

I find that the "a coup would be illegal so therefore there cannot be a coup" argument doesn't 100% put the issue to rest.

And when someone makes that argument, you'll be ready!

OK SSBN.