What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Malthus]

I sure hope you are right.

Nothing has been more depressing than the sight of so many in the US government apparently willing to go along with Trump. Not just the Republican senators willing to put party over country, but government officials willing to put job over conscience. I hope there is a line in the sand beyond which few are willing to go.

[DGuller]

I sure hope you are right.

Nothing has been more depressing than the sight of so many in the US government apparently willing to go along with Trump. Not just the Republican senators willing to put party over country, but government officials willing to put job over conscience. I hope there is a line in the sand beyond which few are willing to go.

Yeah, me too.  Frankly I no longer believe that any one person or institution can be relied on to fulfill their oath.  There are two big problems with this expectation:  people can be craven and give in to their cynical impulses, if they perceive that there will not be consequences.  People can also not be clear on exactly what their oath entails.  You think it means one thing, your superiors say it means something else.  Are you going to stake your career or more on your own interpretation, especially when norms are eroded rather than abruptly broken?  I hope grumbler is right about the military, because we haven't seen a lot of institutions holding up to authoritarians with popular support, here in the US or elsewhere.

[garbon]

I sure hope you are right.

Nothing has been more depressing than the sight of so many in the US government apparently willing to go along with Trump. Not just the Republican senators willing to put party over country, but government officials willing to put job over conscience. I hope there is a line in the sand beyond which few are willing to go.

I mean do we have any indication that even just the army would be happy to go along with his coup?

And that's leaving aside matters like how do you cancel an election for the presidency when the states handle ballots/voting?

[grumbler]

I sure hope you are right.

Nothing has been more depressing than the sight of so many in the US government apparently willing to go along with Trump. Not just the Republican senators willing to put party over country, but government officials willing to put job over conscience. I hope there is a line in the sand beyond which few are willing to go.

I have frankly been shocked by how quickly Mitch McConnel has gotten the republican senate caucus to tamely lick Trump's ass since the death of McCain, but the other government officials that have supported Trump are mostly political appointees, and even with political appointees Trump has gone through a lot of turnover because not everyone he appoints will kiss his ass.

The military seems to be thoroughly sick of him.  There's been pushback on abandoning the Kurds, firing the CO of the TR, use of the military in border patrols, on silly future carrier design demands, and much else.  Trump is not the kind of CinC that inspires confidence or loyalty.

[grumbler]

And that's leaving aside matters like how do you cancel an election for the presidency when the states handle ballots/voting?

This is the key, I think.  What is Trump going to do when California holds its elections despite his attempts to cancel it?  Tweet more?

[Malthus]

Fair enough. You are much  closer to the situation than I, and if you think Trump can't succeed in getting away with any shenanigans of that sort, I'll take comfort from that.

I'm just disoriented by how much that man has gotten away with so far, apparently without consequences. My trust in knowing whether to have trust in the system is dented.

[DGuller]

The basic problem that I see with self-coups is that it is not apparent what action will be the coup.  If you're defying the president, are you defying the coup attempt or are you committing the coup yourself?  Will there be a uniformity of conclusion and conviction on which one it is when the shit hits the fan?  Every single military person may be acting out of their duty, but what will they interpret their duty to be?

[garbon]

And that's leaving aside matters like how do you cancel an election for the presidency when the states handle ballots/voting?

This is the key, I think.  What is Trump going to do when California holds its elections despite his attempts to cancel it?  Tweet more?

Right? It isn't actually something he can control unless each state was also willing to start its own constitutional crisis on elections.

[The Larch]

The military seems to be thoroughly sick of him.  There's been pushback on abandoning the Kurds, firing the CO of the TR, use of the military in border patrols, on silly future carrier design demands, and much else.  Trump is not the kind of CinC that inspires confidence or loyalty.

Can you ellaborate on that? He wants the future USS Trump to use gold lettering? 

[Barrister]

The military seems to be thoroughly sick of him.  There's been pushback on abandoning the Kurds, firing the CO of the TR, use of the military in border patrols, on silly future carrier design demands, and much else.  Trump is not the kind of CinC that inspires confidence or loyalty.

Can you ellaborate on that? He wants the future USS Trump to use gold lettering? 

Grumbles undoubtedly knows more, but I do recall Trump complaining about the new launch system on carriers, wanting them to stick with tried-and-true steam launching.

[Maximus]

This is the key, I think.  What is Trump going to do when California holds its elections despite his attempts to cancel it?  Tweet more?

That can go both ways. I can see a scenario where he gets a few states to go along with him and delay/cancel the election, then uses that to claim the election isn't legitimate because not every state voted.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Trump to governors: "We will activate Bill Barr and activate him very strongly"

[grumbler]

The basic problem that I see with self-coups is that it is not apparent what action will be the coup.  If you're defying the president, are you defying the coup attempt or are you committing the coup yourself?  Will there be a uniformity of conclusion and conviction on which one it is when the shit hits the fan?  Every single military person may be acting out of their duty, but what will they interpret their duty to be?

Trump unambiguously stops being President on 20 Jan 2021 if there are no elections.  Since there won't be a VP or Speaker of the House with no elections, the acting President will be the person the Democrats in the Senate select as the President pro tem.  In the case of no elections, this is not ambiguous.

In the case of partial elections (Trump tries to delay elections but the Democrat-led states, at least, defy him), then whoever gets the majority of EC votes becomes president (presumably not Trump., because his supporters obey him and forgo elections).  If no one gets a majority of electoral votes cast, then the House decides (and presumably the Democrats hold on to the House, since Trump's supporters obey him and forgo elections) and a Democrat becomes president on 20 January.  No ambiguity there.

In the case of full elections, we are right back to where we are now.

Trump postponing elections, or trying to postpone them and failing, are losing moves for him.  I don't see where the issues of whether something is a coup or not come up in this scenario.  Trump is the president until he isn't.

There are other places where I could see conflicts of loyalty, as in the case, say, of Trump calling the Minnesota national guard into federal service but Congress not doing so.  10 U.S. Code § 253 says that he can only do so if the state government cannot or will not secure the rights of its citizens (i.e. it is an insurrection and the state government has lost control).  What does the MNG do when Trump gives them an order in defiance of their governor's assertion that they are NOT in federal service?

[Sheilbh]

From Robert Costa - Trump is apparently on a call with Governors and it is going well:

27m
I'm in touch with someone who's on the governors' call with President Trump right now. They and others listening in are alarmed. The president is urging governors to take back the streets, not be "weak," and use force as the nation faces growing racial unrest.
25m
More: President Trump just berated governors and mayors for how they are handling the protests, calling them "fools," per person on the call.
21m
Aides to governors say the president continues to talk. One describes it as a "rant." Says he keeps talking about the need to "dominate" the protests.
11m
President Trump is now encouraging the nation's governors, repeatedly, to use the military to deal with protests, per a person on the call. Moments ago.

Sounds fairly unhinged.

[grumbler]

The military seems to be thoroughly sick of him.  There's been pushback on abandoning the Kurds, firing the CO of the TR, use of the military in border patrols, on silly future carrier design demands, and much else.  Trump is not the kind of CinC that inspires confidence or loyalty.

Can you ellaborate on that? He wants the future USS Trump to use gold lettering? 

Trump claims that he ordered the Navy to ensure that future carriers use steam catapults.  Since the only carriers on order are far past the point that they could use steam catapults, and no more carriers will be ordered during this administration, it is probably moot that he has issued no such directive, but his claims still irked the shit out of the navy brass.  They were already irritated by his decision to intervene in the award of some very low-level medals to some very low-level officers because he was irritated that a Navy SEAL was charged with violating the UCMJ, just for a little torture and corpse-desecration.