What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[alfred russel]

NAFTA is a treaty - it is US law.  Whether or not Trump can abrogate it unilaterally is an open question.  the treaty itself just provides a 6-month notice of the intent to withdraw, but the authorization law accompanying its ratification doesn't specify the internal US terms for such notice.

Thanks.

So Trump could say he's going to withdraw the US from NAFTA and sign, say, an executive order to that effect. That would then force the US to decide internally whether it's valid or not.

My guess on the script:

1) Trump will say he thinks we should withdraw from NAFTA.
2) He'll change his mind and say that NAFTA is okay for now.
3) Steps 1 & 2 will be repeated a number of times.
4) Eventually he'll actually withdraw from NAFTA using whatever step his staff and advisors deem to be the official way of doing it. However that is done, it will be precedent breaking and controversial.
5) There'll be one or more last-ditch attempts to keep NAFTA going.
6) Ultimately, Trump pushes through and the US withdraws.

The time between each step is dependent on the levels of push-back and support. Also, each step will be used by Trump to attempt to wring concessions from those in his periphery (Canada & Mexico, American companies, other politicians) to the benefit of himself and his coterie. This on-again-off-again blustery style is, IMO, the essence of Trump's MO and how he approaches pretty much every issue.

It is quite possible that it never gets beyond step 3 in the script, depending on the level of pushback and whatever other irons he has in the fire, but the overall trajectory is how he handles pretty much every aspect of politics.

It is also likely that at multiple points during the execution of the script he gets distracted by a TV show getting canceled, someone not standing for the national anthem, something about twitter, or just about anything else imaginable. Then the script gets delayed and never gets fully executed because he loses reelection, resigns, or gets impeached or something.

[crazy canuck]

Right forgot about Euro states quasi-independence. Still, a huge market they want in.

Yeah but there is this thing called nationalism. Once you start shitting on people they start acting idiotically in opposition to their own interests. I am not sure what grounds you have to assume they are going to act rationally when we aren't.

Also, when NAFTA was originally negotiated, the US was essentially the only game in town.  The reason the agreement made sense is that the North American economies would be more competitive as an integrated unit.  The US is no longer the only significant market for our goods.  However, our strong preference would be to continue those economic ties.  If, however, the US really decides that shooting itself in the foot is the best option, then we also have other options.  But that would certainly not be the most beneficial to Canada nor would it enhance American national security interests.  Ironic eh

[Jacob]

It is also likely that at multiple points during the execution of the script he gets distracted by a TV show getting canceled, someone not standing for the national anthem, something about twitter, or just about anything else imaginable. Then the script gets delayed and never gets fully executed because he loses reelection, resigns, or gets impeached or something.

For sure. He's running the same script on pretty much every issue, and the next step gets executed or delayed based on any number of things.

And yes, eventually he'll stop being president and at that time a bunch of the scripts will be permanently incomplete.

[grumbler]

NAFTA is a treaty - it is US law.  Whether or not Trump can abrogate it unilaterally is an open question.  the treaty itself just provides a 6-month notice of the intent to withdraw, but the authorization law accompanying its ratification doesn't specify the internal US terms for such notice.

Thanks.

So Trump could say he's going to withdraw the US from NAFTA and sign, say, an executive order to that effect. That would then force the US to decide internally whether it's valid or not.

My guess on the script:

1) Trump will say he thinks we should withdraw from NAFTA.
2) He'll change his mind and say that NAFTA is okay for now.
3) Steps 1 & 2 will be repeated a number of times.
4) Eventually he'll actually withdraw from NAFTA using whatever step his staff and advisors deem to be the official way of doing it. However that is done, it will be precedent breaking and controversial.
5) There'll be one or more last-ditch attempts to keep NAFTA going.
6) Ultimately, Trump pushes through and the US withdraws.

The time between each step is dependent on the levels of push-back and support. Also, each step will be used by Trump to attempt to wring concessions from those in his periphery (Canada & Mexico, American companies, other politicians) to the benefit of himself and his coterie. This on-again-off-again blustery style is, IMO, the essence of Trump's MO and how he approaches pretty much every issue.

It is quite possible that it never gets beyond step 3 in the script, depending on the level of pushback and whatever other irons he has in the fire, but the overall trajectory is how he handles pretty much every aspect of politics.

It is also likely that at multiple points during the execution of the script he gets distracted by a TV show getting canceled, someone not standing for the national anthem, something about twitter, or just about anything else imaginable. Then the script gets delayed and never gets fully executed because he loses reelection, resigns, or gets impeached or something.

You left out the lawsuits, the cries of greatest witch hunt in US history, the hiring and firing of various lawyers, and the meetings with various reality TV stars to get expert advice on NAFTA legalities.

[Grey Fox]

Does the FA between Canada - USA has a out clause too?

[Barrister]

Does the FA between Canada - USA has a out clause too?

There's a lot of uncertainty.  One is, as mentioned, whether Trump can withdraw from NAFTA just by triggering the exit provision, or whether the laws need to be changed.  Or, even if Trump can withdraw from NAFTA, whether Canada-US FTA would still apply.

[crazy canuck]

Does the FA between Canada - USA has a out clause too?

There's a lot of uncertainty.  One is, as mentioned, whether Trump can withdraw from NAFTA just by triggering the exit provision, or whether the laws need to be changed.  Or, even if Trump can withdraw from NAFTA, whether Canada-US FTA would still apply.

I don't think there is any uncertainly that if NAFTA is terminated that the terms of the Canada US bilateral trade agreement which proceeded it would then apply.  What is uncertain is what that is worth since its provisions are very dated.

[Barrister]

Does the FA between Canada - USA has a out clause too?

There's a lot of uncertainty.  One is, as mentioned, whether Trump can withdraw from NAFTA just by triggering the exit provision, or whether the laws need to be changed.  Or, even if Trump can withdraw from NAFTA, whether Canada-US FTA would still apply.

I don't think there is any uncertainly that if NAFTA is terminated that the terms of the Canada US bilateral trade agreement which proceeded it would then apply.  What is uncertain is what that is worth since its provisions are very dated.

I'm certainly not a international trade lawyer, but I think the problem was this: as pointed out NAFTA is US law.  Canada-US FTA was also law.  But when NAFTA was brought into place it replaced the Canada-US FTA law.

[alfred russel]

Regardless of whether a previously negotiated US-Canada trade agreement would be in effect if the US pulled out of NAFTA, if Trump is convinced trade deals are biased against the US and he can negotiate better ones, why wouldn't he pull out of the preexisting US - Canada trade agreement as well? Assuming he has the power to do that, and assuming he has the power to pull out of NAFTA.

[Barrister]

Marvellous.  Just marvellous.

In a sign that Trump is looking to stoke divisions, White House officials are discussing ways to impose additional economic penalties against Canada — the host nation for the summit — in retaliation for Ottawa's threat to levy tariffs next month on roughly $13 billion in U.S.-made products. Among Canada's targets: orange juice, soy sauce, sleeping bags and inflatable boats.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-plans-confrontational-approach-with-world-leaders-at-economic-summit/2018/06/06/78291868-68ea-11e8-9e38-24e693b38637_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.9781a8e7911a

[alfred russel]

Do you guys really get sleeping bags and inflatable boats from the US? I figured that stuff came from China.

[crazy canuck]

Marvellous.  Just marvellous.

In a sign that Trump is looking to stoke divisions, White House officials are discussing ways to impose additional economic penalties against Canada — the host nation for the summit — in retaliation for Ottawa's threat to levy tariffs next month on roughly $13 billion in U.S.-made products. Among Canada's targets: orange juice, soy sauce, sleeping bags and inflatable boats.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-plans-confrontational-approach-with-world-leaders-at-economic-summit/2018/06/06/78291868-68ea-11e8-9e38-24e693b38637_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.9781a8e7911a

Don't worry, trade wars are easy to win if you are the country that has the trade deficit.  At least that is what Trump said, and Canada has the trade deficit with the US.  So, according to Trump, Canada is going to be much better off.

[crazy canuck]

Do you guys really get sleeping bags and inflatable boats from the US? I figured that stuff came from China.

Canada buys a lot of American goods - well currently anyway.

[Barrister]

Do you guys really get sleeping bags and inflatable boats from the US? I figured that stuff came from China.

While no doubt a lot of that stuff does come from China, I have no doubt that the high end stuff comes from the US.

[Razgovory]

Is there a point to attacking Canada?