What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Zanza]

I'm assuming there's a reason beyond mere tradition why germany has stuck with the US and not already turned 100% toward china

Germany's core strategic foreign policy since 1949 has been "Western Integration", meaning that Germany participated in every international or multilateral Western European or Transatlantic integration project over the last 67 years. We joined and supported GATT/WTO, NATO, EEC/EC/EU, OECD, UN, etc. - which are by the way all institutions the American government established and/or sponsored (except EC/EEC/EU I guess) and which are the backbone of the Pax Americana of the postwar period. Trump's actions at the moment imperil the extremely successful American foreign policy of the last 70 years which have established American as the sole superpower and the indispensable country of the current world order. If you withdraw from that, all bets are off. We might see a completely changed geopolitical situation after a Trump presidency. And considering the supremely powerful position the US currently has, it's hard to see any possible upside for the US in that.

[Berkut]

Banned countries include:

- Lybia.
- Sudan.
- Somalia.
- Yemen.
- Syria.
- Iraq.
- Iran.

Allowed countries where Trump does business:

- Turkey.
- Egypt.
- Saudi Arabia.
- United Arab Emirates.

I'm not defending Trump's massive conflicts of interest, but the 7 banned are, imo, in much worse shape than the allowed 4. If you gave me the list of 11 countries and told I needed to ban immigration from 7 of them, I'd pick the banned seven every time.

But that is why this is such an issue.

In any international diplomacy, there is enough complexity that it is trivial to come up with some reason why some decision is not motivated by personal interests.

Did Trump pick those seven for reasons that serve him or reasons that serve the US?

Well, if he had done what he is supposed to do, we would not really have to ask that question. As long as he refuses to divest himself, it throws a cloud over all of his decisions. A cloud that causes Americans to be suspicious, and a cloud that lets our enemies dismiss our actions as being merely the desires of a businessman looking to turn a dollar for himself.

It doesn't matter one bit whether or not he has chosen those seven for good or bad reasons - the perception will exist among those who wish for that perception to exist that he did so for bad reasons, and that cannot be avoided.

[garbon]

There's probably no good reason to ban those 7 at this particular moment.

[Berkut]

I'm assuming there's a reason beyond mere tradition why germany has stuck with the US and not already turned 100% toward china

Germany's core strategic foreign policy since 1949 has been "Western Integration", meaning that Germany participated in every international or multilateral Western European or Transatlantic integration project over the last 67 years. We joined and supported GATT/WTO, NATO, EEC/EC/EU, OECD, UN, etc. - which are by the way all institutions the American government established and/or sponsored (except EC/EEC/EU I guess) and which are the backbone of the Pax Americana of the postwar period. Trump's actions at the moment imperil the extremely successful American foreign policy of the last 70 years which have established American as the sole superpower and the indispensable country of the current world order. If you withdraw from that, all bets are off. We might see a completely changed geopolitical situation after a Trump presidency. And considering the supremely powerful position the US currently has, it's hard to see any possible upside for the US in that.

Indeed.

It is kind of incredible how successful the right wing media has been in convincing an appreciable portion of America that our own rather stunning success is actually a crippling weakness that must be thrown away as quickly as possible.

[merithyn]

were you expecting trump to lead the nation into an era of greatness? this nation elected him, and it'll survive the next four years. you said something about hard times coming ahead -- I implied there weren't going to be "hard times" for the average decently-well-off american

I think it will be hard times for the average decent American.

[grumbler]

Germany's core strategic foreign policy since 1949 has been "Western Integration", meaning that Germany participated in every international or multilateral Western European or Transatlantic integration project over the last 67 years. We joined and supported GATT/WTO, NATO, EEC/EC/EU, OECD, UN, etc. - which are by the way all institutions the American government established and/or sponsored (except EC/EEC/EU I guess) and which are the backbone of the Pax Americana of the postwar period. Trump's actions at the moment imperil the extremely successful American foreign policy of the last 70 years which have established American as the sole superpower and the indispensable country of the current world order. If you withdraw from that, all bets are off. We might see a completely changed geopolitical situation after a Trump presidency. And considering the supremely powerful position the US currently has, it's hard to see any possible upside for the US in that.

All this is true, but truth is irrelevant to the Trumpeters.  trump got elected by insisting that the US sucked and that only he could make it "great again."  As i noted a week ago, the Onion's comment on Dubya's election is doubly true now: "America's long national nightmare of peace and prosperity has finally come to an end."

[alfred russel]

I'd certainly ban Egypt before Iran, but I otherwise agree with you.

Banning travel from a country is a rather severe economic sanction--whether it is intended to be or not.

I think banning Egypt would be the biggest deal of all if added to the list. It is a significant economy, and without knowing the percentages off hand, like half the Arab world lives there.

Iran is also a major country, but the sanctions have already isolated them from the US economy. There is also a higher liklihood of state sponsored terrorism from Iran versus Egypt.

[Barrister]

were you expecting trump to lead the nation into an era of greatness? this nation elected him, and it'll survive the next four years. you said something about hard times coming ahead -- I implied there weren't going to be "hard times" for the average decently-well-off american

I think it will be hard times for the average decent American.

Trump is bound and determined to start a trade war with half the world, which can't help but hurt the american economy.

[Zanza]

The GOP does not have any ideas for a replacement of Obamacare but on the other hand they are also not sure how to repeal it first. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/behind-closed-doors-republican-lawmakers-fret-about-how-to-repeal-obamacare/2017/01/27/deabdafa-e491-11e6-a547-5fb9411d332c_story.html?utm_term=.cf7b8bfb7ffd

[Valmy]

Ok what the hell? They have been calling for its repeal for three elections now. They never sat down and put together a plan for that?

I guess they never thought they would ever win?

[Barrister]

Ok what the hell? They have been calling for its repeal for three elections now. They never sat down and put together a plan for that?

I guess they never thought they would ever win?

The problem is they have multiple plans.  They just can't agree on which one to use.

[Valmy]

Ok what the hell? They have been calling for its repeal for three elections now. They never sat down and put together a plan for that?

I guess they never thought they would ever win?

The problem is they have multiple plans.  They just can't agree on which one to use.

Too many cooks. I get that.

[LaCroix]

Germany's core strategic foreign policy since 1949 has been "Western Integration", meaning that Germany participated in every international or multilateral Western European or Transatlantic integration project over the last 67 years. We joined and supported GATT/WTO, NATO, EEC/EC/EU, OECD, UN, etc. - which are by the way all institutions the American government established and/or sponsored (except EC/EEC/EU I guess) and which are the backbone of the Pax Americana of the postwar period. Trump's actions at the moment imperil the extremely successful American foreign policy of the last 70 years which have established American as the sole superpower and the indispensable country of the current world order. If you withdraw from that, all bets are off. We might see a completely changed geopolitical situation after a Trump presidency. And considering the supremely powerful position the US currently has, it's hard to see any possible upside for the US in that.

I kinda doubt the vast majority of germans would approve sticking with china over the western hemisphere in the long run

[LaCroix]

france was completely isolated at that time. plus, the world is a much different place now than the late 1890s/early 1900s -- citizens of a democratic nation have different expectations.

With UK leaving the EU, Italy in shambles, and France a long-term frenemy it's starting to seem a bit lonely for Germany as well.

just look at US population's reaction to the idea of allying russia.

The US has often been aligned with authoritarian states; it is now.  The objection to Russia is less their suppression of Pussy Riot and more there invading other countries.

americans like to feel good about themselves. the US has been friends with authoritarian states, but it's not a primary relationship/alliance. the US just has so many close relationships with so many countries because we're the superpower. the key US allies are countries like britain, canada, france, etc. this article as skimmed doesn't make it seem like germany and china would be like US - saudi Arabia, but more that it would be a firm alliance between two major powers.

[LaCroix]

International systems are easier to destroy than build.  I wouldn't underestimate the amount of damage that someone like Trump could due in 4 (or 8!) years especially if allowed to operate unchecked.

china could do some power play and become a Good Guy and convince the world to abandon the US and look to it as a shining example of world leadership, but that seems very doubtful in a four-year timeframe