A few questions to the Americans re: Presidential Elections 2016

[PJL]

Yeah, I think 2020 is going to be interesting for both parties.

They will both need to figure out how to incorporate the legitimate issues that drove Sanders and Trump "outsider" candidates, while avoiding the crazies.

Obviously this will be easier for the Dems than the Republicans, for both historical and policy reasons.

Well the Democratic nomination will not be open like it was this year - you'll presumably have Clinton running for a second term.  So while she may face a leftist insurgent in modern history no incumbent has ever lost the nomination.

No, they just resigned when the situation became unfavuorable.

[garbon]

Populism can manifest in different ways.  The last big bout of "toxic populism" we had was with George Wallace, whose campaigns and style has occasioned comparisons to Trump.  The Wallace fever subsided , but a chunk of his support migrated to become "Reagan Democrats" in response to Reagan's inside-outsider campaign.  I don't personally consider that a great outcome, but James Watt aside, I wouldn't consider the Reagan administration "toxic".  Bottom line is that there likely will be someone who figures out how to ride this anti-system anger more effectively, but there is reason to hope it will be someone who will channel it in a less destructive direction

I think there's room for a 2020 GOP candidate to import elements of Trumpism such as enforced borders, clamp down on illegal immigration, and not reflexively propose to scrap everyone's health care, while dumping toxic elements such as the nativism, racism and general authoritarianism.

What exactly does enforced borders and clamping on illegal immigration look like without nativism and racism? It isn't like the US is in any situation near say an Israeli one.

[Barrister]

Populism can manifest in different ways.  The last big bout of "toxic populism" we had was with George Wallace, whose campaigns and style has occasioned comparisons to Trump.  The Wallace fever subsided , but a chunk of his support migrated to become "Reagan Democrats" in response to Reagan's inside-outsider campaign.  I don't personally consider that a great outcome, but James Watt aside, I wouldn't consider the Reagan administration "toxic".  Bottom line is that there likely will be someone who figures out how to ride this anti-system anger more effectively, but there is reason to hope it will be someone who will channel it in a less destructive direction

I think there's room for a 2020 GOP candidate to import elements of Trumpism such as enforced borders, clamp down on illegal immigration, and not reflexively propose to scrap everyone's health care, while dumping toxic elements such as the nativism, racism and general authoritarianism.

What exactly does enforced borders and clamping on illegal immigration look like without nativism and racism? It isn't like the US is in any situation near say an Israeli one.

It's the difference between celebrating legal immigration, and denouncing all Mexicans (legal or not) as rapists.  It requires some nuance (which of course is something Trump doesn't do) but isn't impossible.

[garbon]

Populism can manifest in different ways.  The last big bout of "toxic populism" we had was with George Wallace, whose campaigns and style has occasioned comparisons to Trump.  The Wallace fever subsided , but a chunk of his support migrated to become "Reagan Democrats" in response to Reagan's inside-outsider campaign.  I don't personally consider that a great outcome, but James Watt aside, I wouldn't consider the Reagan administration "toxic".  Bottom line is that there likely will be someone who figures out how to ride this anti-system anger more effectively, but there is reason to hope it will be someone who will channel it in a less destructive direction

I think there's room for a 2020 GOP candidate to import elements of Trumpism such as enforced borders, clamp down on illegal immigration, and not reflexively propose to scrap everyone's health care, while dumping toxic elements such as the nativism, racism and general authoritarianism.

What exactly does enforced borders and clamping on illegal immigration look like without nativism and racism? It isn't like the US is in any situation near say an Israeli one.

It's the difference between celebrating legal immigration, and denouncing all Mexicans (legal or not) as rapists.  It requires some nuance (which of course is something Trump doesn't do) but isn't impossible.

I agree that one could be less overt but I don't see how it would not still be there. Even if just dog whistling it has to be there because the majority of voters are not actually harmed by immigration (be it illegal or otherwise).

[Barrister]

Populism can manifest in different ways.  The last big bout of "toxic populism" we had was with George Wallace, whose campaigns and style has occasioned comparisons to Trump.  The Wallace fever subsided , but a chunk of his support migrated to become "Reagan Democrats" in response to Reagan's inside-outsider campaign.  I don't personally consider that a great outcome, but James Watt aside, I wouldn't consider the Reagan administration "toxic".  Bottom line is that there likely will be someone who figures out how to ride this anti-system anger more effectively, but there is reason to hope it will be someone who will channel it in a less destructive direction

I think there's room for a 2020 GOP candidate to import elements of Trumpism such as enforced borders, clamp down on illegal immigration, and not reflexively propose to scrap everyone's health care, while dumping toxic elements such as the nativism, racism and general authoritarianism.

What exactly does enforced borders and clamping on illegal immigration look like without nativism and racism? It isn't like the US is in any situation near say an Israeli one.

It's the difference between celebrating legal immigration, and denouncing all Mexicans (legal or not) as rapists.  It requires some nuance (which of course is something Trump doesn't do) but isn't impossible.

I agree that one could be less overt but I don't see how it would not still be there. Even if just dog whistling it has to be there because the majority of voters are not actually harmed by immigration (be it illegal or otherwise).

You can be pro-immigration and still want illegal immigrants to be kicked out of your country.

[Valmy]

Well the Democratic nomination will not be open like it was this year - you'll presumably have Clinton running for a second term.  So while she may face a leftist insurgent in modern history no incumbent has ever lost the nomination.

There are other ways the leftist insurgents can gain traction besides capturing the presidency. The landscape may look very different in 2020.

[garbon]

You can be pro-immigration and still want illegal immigrants to be kicked out of your country.

You can but you aren't really going to build a significant chunk of a platform on that without some racism and/or nativism backing you up.

[MadImmortalMan]

I don't think racism has much of a following anymore.

[HVC]

I don't think racism has much of a following anymore.

Are we not watching the same elections?

[Valmy]

I don't think racism has much of a following anymore.

Racism is experiencing a re-awakening into the mainstream. The internet allows the racists to band together again and go on the offensive like the bad old days.

[dps]

Populism can manifest in different ways.  The last big bout of "toxic populism" we had was with George Wallace, whose campaigns and style has occasioned comparisons to Trump.  The Wallace fever subsided , but a chunk of his support migrated to become "Reagan Democrats" in response to Reagan's inside-outsider campaign.  I don't personally consider that a great outcome, but James Watt aside, I wouldn't consider the Reagan administration "toxic".  Bottom line is that there likely will be someone who figures out how to ride this anti-system anger more effectively, but there is reason to hope it will be someone who will channel it in a less destructive direction

I think there's room for a 2020 GOP candidate to import elements of Trumpism such as enforced borders, clamp down on illegal immigration, and not reflexively propose to scrap everyone's health care, while dumping toxic elements such as the nativism, racism and general authoritarianism.

What exactly does enforced borders and clamping on illegal immigration look like without nativism and racism? It isn't like the US is in any situation near say an Israeli one.

It's the difference between celebrating legal immigration, and denouncing all Mexicans (legal or not) as rapists.  It requires some nuance (which of course is something Trump doesn't do) but isn't impossible.

I agree that one could be less overt but I don't see how it would not still be there. Even if just dog whistling it has to be there because the majority of voters are not actually harmed by immigration (be it illegal or otherwise).

You can be pro-immigration and still want illegal immigrants to be kicked out of your country.

Hi!

[MadImmortalMan]

Come on. If Trump or Hillary said they wanted to rope up some niggers you'd damn sure see the difference. Real racism is gone from politics. Even the most hick right wing radical insert_epithet_here  reject that crap.

[The Brain]

I don't think racism has much of a following anymore.

Too many chiefs.

[MadImmortalMan]

You can be pro-immigration and still want illegal immigrants to be kicked out of your country.

I can't. It would be hypocritical. I want to be able to go where I want and do what I want, therefore, I must be willing to support the rights of others to do the same.

[Berkut]

Populism can manifest in different ways.  The last big bout of "toxic populism" we had was with George Wallace, whose campaigns and style has occasioned comparisons to Trump.  The Wallace fever subsided , but a chunk of his support migrated to become "Reagan Democrats" in response to Reagan's inside-outsider campaign.  I don't personally consider that a great outcome, but James Watt aside, I wouldn't consider the Reagan administration "toxic".  Bottom line is that there likely will be someone who figures out how to ride this anti-system anger more effectively, but there is reason to hope it will be someone who will channel it in a less destructive direction

I think there's room for a 2020 GOP candidate to import elements of Trumpism such as enforced borders, clamp down on illegal immigration, and not reflexively propose to scrap everyone's health care, while dumping toxic elements such as the nativism, racism and general authoritarianism.

What exactly does enforced borders and clamping on illegal immigration look like without nativism and racism? It isn't like the US is in any situation near say an Israeli one.

It's the difference between celebrating legal immigration, and denouncing all Mexicans (legal or not) as rapists.  It requires some nuance (which of course is something Trump doesn't do) but isn't impossible.

I agree that one could be less overt but I don't see how it would not still be there. Even if just dog whistling it has to be there because the majority of voters are not actually harmed by immigration (be it illegal or otherwise).

You can be pro-immigration and still want illegal immigrants to be kicked out of your country.

That stance is theoretically reasonable, and practically meaningless in the USA today.