A few questions to the Americans re: Presidential Elections 2016

[The Minsky Moment]

IN what way is Ryan a "policy fraud"?

He makes up/fudges numbers; plays "scoring" games on his budget proposals.

[CountDeMoney]

Poor Ryan man. A few years ago I found him a pretty interesting guy, actually putting forth plans to balance the budget and all. Now he is basically a clown, hated by the base for being a left wing liberal.

His Mom probably called this weekend and yelled at him.  Probably doesn't want a shitload of nuns on his ass again, either.

[Barrister]

Populism can manifest in different ways.  The last big bout of "toxic populism" we had was with George Wallace, whose campaigns and style has occasioned comparisons to Trump.  The Wallace fever subsided , but a chunk of his support migrated to become "Reagan Democrats" in response to Reagan's inside-outsider campaign.  I don't personally consider that a great outcome, but James Watt aside, I wouldn't consider the Reagan administration "toxic".  Bottom line is that there likely will be someone who figures out how to ride this anti-system anger more effectively, but there is reason to hope it will be someone who will channel it in a less destructive direction

I think there's room for a 2020 GOP candidate to import elements of Trumpism such as enforced borders, clamp down on illegal immigration, and not reflexively propose to scrap everyone's health care, while dumping toxic elements such as the nativism, racism and general authoritarianism.

[Valmy]

Unless they also back away from betraying our allies and scrapping our free trade agreements no deal.

[Jacob]

I think there's room for a 2020 GOP candidate to import elements of Trumpism such as enforced borders, clamp down on illegal immigration, and not reflexively propose to scrap everyone's health care, while dumping toxic elements such as the nativism, racism and general authoritarianism.

So you're saying the candidate in 2020 can dump the things that motivates the Trumpists and attempt to satisfy them with apparently reasonable right wing policies, hoping that dog-whistles will suffice to motivate them enough that he won't be outflanked by someone being more explicit?

I mean, it's definitely possible but to me it seems about as likely as the GOP successfully engaging in minority outreach after Obama's election.

[Barrister]

I think there's room for a 2020 GOP candidate to import elements of Trumpism such as enforced borders, clamp down on illegal immigration, and not reflexively propose to scrap everyone's health care, while dumping toxic elements such as the nativism, racism and general authoritarianism.

So you're saying the candidate in 2020 can dump the things that motivates the Trumpists and attempt to satisfy them with apparently reasonable right wing policies, hoping that dog-whistles will suffice to motivate them enough that he won't be outflanked by someone being more explicit?

I mean, it's definitely possible but to me it seems about as likely as the GOP successfully engaging in minority outreach after Obama's election.

Well no.  The things I outlined would be a marked departure from GOP orthodoxy.  The Party tried very hard to come to an accommodation on illegal immigrants, and continuously has promised to scrap Obamacare, and keeps throwing out suggestions it may tinker with Medicare.

If you think the GOP can never do meaningful minority outreach you're saying the Democrats have a lock on the whitehouse.  I don't think that's the case.

[Jacob]

Well no.  The things I outlined would be a marked departure from GOP orthodoxy.  The Party tried very hard to come to an accommodation on illegal immigrants, and continuously has promised to scrap Obamacare, and keeps throwing out suggestions it may tinker with Medicare.

If you think the GOP can never do meaningful minority outreach you're saying the Democrats have a lock on the whitehouse.  I don't think that's the case.

I think it's theoretically possible that the GOP can do meaningful minority outreach, but experience in the last year seems to indicate it has some internal institutional barriers to actually carry that out. Perhaps the post-Trump paroxysms will be what it takes to overcome those barriers, but right now it seems out and out bigoted pandering (as you say, toxic elements) carries the most weight, so if there's going to be dumping it seems like it's likely to be something else.

Personally, I think the GOP is going to have to lose the houses of congress and more state governments on account of toxicity before they'll start purging it with any kind of seriousness.

[Barrister]

Well no.  The things I outlined would be a marked departure from GOP orthodoxy.  The Party tried very hard to come to an accommodation on illegal immigrants, and continuously has promised to scrap Obamacare, and keeps throwing out suggestions it may tinker with Medicare.

If you think the GOP can never do meaningful minority outreach you're saying the Democrats have a lock on the whitehouse.  I don't think that's the case.

I think it's theoretically possible that the GOP can do meaningful minority outreach, but experience in the last year seems to indicate it has some internal institutional barriers to actually carry that out. Perhaps the post-Trump paroxysms will be what it takes to overcome those barriers, but right now it seems out and out bigoted pandering (as you say, toxic elements) carries the most weight, so if there's going to be dumping it seems like it's likely to be something else.

Personally, I think the GOP is going to have to lose the houses of congress and more state governments on account of toxicity before they'll start purging it with any kind of seriousness.

I don't think voters are going to hold Trump against the GOP in 2020.  No one is going to go "you know, Rubio/Pence/Ryan/Cruz seems pretty sensible, but this is the party that nominated Trump 4 years ago so I think I'll vote to re-elect Clinton".  Trump is sui generis.

[Valmy]

I don't think that is the issue BB. The problem is that Trump's supporters are going to demand more Trumps not vile sell out establishment liberal traitors like Rubio/Pence/Ryan/Cruz.

[Barrister]

I don't think that is the issue BB. The problem is that Trump's supporters are going to demand more Trumps not vile sell out establishment liberal traitors like Rubio/Pence/Ryan/Cruz.

As long as the GOP pivots to incorporate some elements of Trumpism like what I suggested, they'll fall in line the same way the Bernie Bros mostly have.

[Zoupa]

I don't think that is the issue BB. The problem is that Trump's supporters are going to demand more Trumps not vile sell out establishment liberal traitors like Rubio/Pence/Ryan/Cruz.

Yeah, especially after 4 years of TrumpTV telling them that.

[Valmy]

I don't think that is the issue BB. The problem is that Trump's supporters are going to demand more Trumps not vile sell out establishment liberal traitors like Rubio/Pence/Ryan/Cruz.

As long as the GOP pivots to incorporate some elements of Trumpism like what I suggested, they'll fall in line the same way the Bernie Bros mostly have.

The Bernie Bros most certainly have not. Oh sure they might rally to vote to stop Trump this time but they will be back. The revolution will be televised so check it out in future Primaries.

[Berkut]

Yeah, I think 2020 is going to be interesting for both parties.

They will both need to figure out how to incorporate the legitimate issues that drove Sanders and Trump "outsider" candidates, while avoiding the crazies.

Obviously this will be easier for the Dems than the Republicans, for both historical and policy reasons.

[Barrister]

Yeah, I think 2020 is going to be interesting for both parties.

They will both need to figure out how to incorporate the legitimate issues that drove Sanders and Trump "outsider" candidates, while avoiding the crazies.

Obviously this will be easier for the Dems than the Republicans, for both historical and policy reasons.

Well the Democratic nomination will not be open like it was this year - you'll presumably have Clinton running for a second term.  So while she may face a leftist insurgent in modern history no incumbent has ever lost the nomination.

[Berkut]

Yeah, I think 2020 is going to be interesting for both parties.

They will both need to figure out how to incorporate the legitimate issues that drove Sanders and Trump "outsider" candidates, while avoiding the crazies.

Obviously this will be easier for the Dems than the Republicans, for both historical and policy reasons.

Well the Democratic nomination will not be open like it was this year - you'll presumably have Clinton running for a second term.  So while she may face a leftist insurgent in modern history no incumbent has ever lost the nomination.

True, but I don't think "modern history" is much of a guide anymore.