Tone and Conflict Prediction in International Affairs

Started by Jacob, August 25, 2016, 07:19:55 PM

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Jacob

August 25, 2016, 07:19:55 PM
Fahdiz posted this on FB. I thought it might be of interest to some languishites:

http://bit.ly/2bB8pEy

Quote from: fahdizLong, but worth it. From the abstract: "Applying tone and geographic analysis to a 30–year worldwide news archive, global news tone is found to have forecasted the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, including the removal of Egyptian President Mubarak, predicted the stability of Saudi Arabia (at least through May 2011), estimated Osama Bin Laden's likely hiding place as a 200–kilometer radius in Northern Pakistan that includes Abbotabad, and offered a new look at the world's cultural affiliations."

This data science was done using the supercomputer Nautilus.

Eddie Teach

#1
August 25, 2016, 07:29:55 PM
Do they predict a Cubs World Series victory in our lifetimes?
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

Tonitrus

#2
August 25, 2016, 07:36:53 PM
Does it do lottery tickets?

CountDeMoney

#3
August 25, 2016, 07:48:50 PM
Quote from: Jacob on August 25, 2016, 07:19:55 PM
Fahdiz posted this on FB.

Considering the number of games he burns through on Steam, surprised he has the time for Facebook.  Must've been 83% off for 2 hours.

derspiess

#4
August 25, 2016, 08:01:44 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 25, 2016, 07:29:55 PM
Do they predict a Cubs World Series victory in our lifetimes?

"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Ed Anger

#5
August 25, 2016, 08:19:43 PM
Tell Fagdiz to show up here once in awhile.
Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

alfred russel

#6
August 25, 2016, 10:45:20 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 25, 2016, 08:01:44 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 25, 2016, 07:29:55 PM
Do they predict a Cubs World Series victory in our lifetimes?



Derspiess, I"m very sorry to hear that you will be dying before early November. :(
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

jimmy olsen

#7
August 25, 2016, 11:09:01 PM
Quote from: Jacob on August 25, 2016, 07:19:55 PM
Fahdiz posted this on FB. I thought it might be of interest to some languishites:

http://bit.ly/2bB8pEy

Quote from: fahdizLong, but worth it. From the abstract: "Applying tone and geographic analysis to a 30–year worldwide news archive, global news tone is found to have forecasted the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, including the removal of Egyptian President Mubarak, predicted the stability of Saudi Arabia (at least through May 2011), estimated Osama Bin Laden's likely hiding place as a 200–kilometer radius in Northern Pakistan that includes Abbotabad, and offered a new look at the world's cultural affiliations."

This data science was done using the supercomputer Nautilus.

It's easy to build a model that will predict past events correctly, but those models often fail when applied to predicting the future.

It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

Martinus

#8
August 26, 2016, 01:04:57 AM
I hope he is not still traumatised from that Defcon game. That thing left him triggered AF.

CountDeMoney

#9
August 26, 2016, 06:29:37 AM
 :lol:  the sobbing
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