Why the Navy Needs Disruption Now

[grumbler]

None of those issues impact the refueling mission, though, and that's a huge problem for the modern carrier battle group.  Once upon a time, there were specialized refueling aircraft, but those have been eliminated even as the navy has transitioned to gas-guzzlers like the F/A-18 (an F-18 loaded with buddy stores still burns more fuel than it delivers).  A carrier used to have strike ranges in the 700-mile range.  Nowadays, a 250-mile strike would strain its capabilities.

That's quite damning.

I warned them!  (Quite literally; I authored the study, 20 years ago, that the Navy commissioned, and then rejected, to evaluate whether the F-14E or F/A-18 E/F would be the aircraft to hold the line until the F-35 was completed; the F-14 won so hands down the DSB chastised the Navy for not selecting it).

[mongers]

None of those issues impact the refueling mission, though, and that's a huge problem for the modern carrier battle group.  Once upon a time, there were specialized refueling aircraft, but those have been eliminated even as the navy has transitioned to gas-guzzlers like the F/A-18 (an F-18 loaded with buddy stores still burns more fuel than it delivers).  A carrier used to have strike ranges in the 700-mile range.  Nowadays, a 250-mile strike would strain its capabilities.

That's quite damning.

I warned them!  (Quite literally; I authored the study, 20 years ago, that the Navy commissioned, and then rejected, to evaluate whether the F-14E or F/A-18 E/F would be the aircraft to hold the line until the F-35 was completed; the F-14 won so hands down the DSB chastised the Navy for not selecting it).

Interesting.

Good job nothing kicked off with China before the F-35s started arriving. 

[grumbler]

Interesting.

Good job nothing kicked off with China before the F-35s started arriving.

Te F-35 is a whole 'nother fuckup that makes the F-18/F-14 fuckup seem like a typo.  It might not meet specs, but at least it doesn't come anywhere near the low promised cost.  It may be the single worst procurement story in world military history.

[CountDeMoney]

This is a disheartening thread.

Stupid Pentagon.   

[Berkut]

I think the F-35 is going to end up being fine. It won't be awesome, but nothing "Joint" ever is, but it is going to be very successful.

[Siege]

I think the F-35 is going to end up being fine. It won't be awesome, but nothing "Joint" ever is, but it is going to be very successful.

It still doesn't justify the price.
We don't have a bottomless economy anymore.
China is going to be the big winner in all this Navy debacle.

[grumbler]

I think the F-35 is going to end up being fine. It won't be awesome, but nothing "Joint" ever is, but it is going to be very successful.

"I think it will have the best performance...of any plane that's ever been made because it has a winning performance. It knows how to win because its whole design life it's been winning."

[Berkut]

I think the F-35 is going to end up being fine. It won't be awesome, but nothing "Joint" ever is, but it is going to be very successful.

"I think it will have the best performance...of any plane that's ever been made because it has a winning performance. It knows how to win because its whole design life it's been winning."

More like "I think it will be fine because we will spend whatever is necessary to make it so".

[grumbler]

More like "I think it will be fine because we will spend whatever is necessary to make it so".

I very much doubt that that will be true.  I think that the project has gone beyond the point where it can either cost more, or cut more production to pay for over-runs.  I think that, from this point forward, escalating costs will be countered by lowered performance expectations.  As those performance expectations decline, more partners will drop out to seek more cost-effective solutions, which will increase costs and drive down performance.  I fear another B-58-type program.

[The Minsky Moment]

I'm sure China will give us a volume discount on the J-31 if we ask nicely.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

I warned them!  (Quite literally; I authored the study, 20 years ago, that the Navy commissioned, and then rejected, to evaluate whether the F-14E or F/A-18 E/F would be the aircraft to hold the line until the F-35 was completed; the F-14 won so hands down the DSB chastised the Navy for not selecting it).

Is there any truth to the rumors that the F-15E and jellies from the Chair Force helped kill the F-14E?

[grumbler]

I warned them!  (Quite literally; I authored the study, 20 years ago, that the Navy commissioned, and then rejected, to evaluate whether the F-14E or F/A-18 E/F would be the aircraft to hold the line until the F-35 was completed; the F-14 won so hands down the DSB chastised the Navy for not selecting it).

Is there any truth to the rumors that the F-15E and jellies from the Chair Force helped kill the F-14E?

Not that I've ever heard.  The F-14E used a lot of systems that the F-15E used, so would have lowered AF costs.  I'd think they favored it.

I think what killed the F-14E was that it had an NFO (a back seater).  The Navy had decided in 1988 that NFOs could, for the first time, compete for carrier squadron command spots (previously reserved for pilots).  That meant NFOs could compete, then, for wing command and ship command and, therefor for flag rank.  Every NFO admiral was a lost possibility for a pilot admiral.  Some NFOs had made flag through the P-3 community and one had gotten carrier command without ever commanding a carrier air wing squadron, but that overwhelming majority of aviation admirals were pilots and wanted to keep it that way (IMO).

The Navy began to transition its carrier air wings to single-seat types (purchase more F-18s and transfer S-3s ashore).  I don't think this unrelated to the carrier air wing command situation.  Today there are only the 4 or 5 Growler back seaters and 15 more with the E-2 squadron.

[Tonitrus]

Fucking pilots ruin everything. 

[alfred russel]

I think the F-35 is going to end up being fine. It won't be awesome, but nothing "Joint" ever is, but it is going to be very successful.

Well yeah, the most serious competition it is likely to go up against is 70s and 80s era Soviet crap with questionable maintenance.

[Berkut]

I think the F-35 is going to end up being fine. It won't be awesome, but nothing "Joint" ever is, but it is going to be very successful.

Well yeah, the most serious competition it is likely to go up against is 70s and 80s era Soviet crap with questionable maintenance.

No, I mean it is going to be a perfectly serviceable 5th gen fighter capable of fulfilling its mission in a reasonable fashion.

I agree with grumbler that the JSF program in general was a mess, and certainly was a mistake for the Navy in particular.

Where we differ is that I think it was not the right solution, but I don't think it is a terrible solution.

I follow the JSF somewhat closely, and it is actually looking pretty good right now. They are working through teehting problems and issues with the ALIS, but overall its capabilities are looking very promising for what it is  - a multi-role strike fighter. It won't do A2A as well as it could, and it won't have the range you would like out of a dedicated strike fighter, and the idea of the mainstay of the Navy A2A and strike package being a single engined plane just seems, well, stupid...but it is still going to be one of the premier weapons for the next several decades.

It's biggest flaw, IMO, is just trying to be everything to everyone. Too many design compromises inherent in that approach.