The Summer 2016 UK Political and Constitutional Crisis

[Sheilbh]

You never know, we might have a Remain Labour-Lib Dem coalition by then.

You could also have an unelected prime minister by then. #takecontrol

I don't want to alarm anyone, but Lembit Opik has been spotted in Westminster today

[Zoupa]

Sure but all the outcome was was leave. Now we need to have the debate on how we leave.

How you leave is 1/28th in your control. Better hurry.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Not quite, if France and Germany have a common mind on post-Brexit Britain it's a fait accompli; it's highly unlikely the trade/migration/etc agreements will be held up by Malta or Latvia.

[Zoupa]

Not quite, if France and Germany have a common mind on post-Brexit Britain it's a fait accompli; it's highly unlikely the trade/migration/etc agreements will be held up by Malta or Latvia.

Why not? The Republic of Ireland probably has specific demands on Brexit negotiations. Cyprus might want that military base out, etc etc.

[mongers]

Not quite, if France and Germany have a common mind on post-Brexit Britain it's a fait accompli; it's highly unlikely the trade/migration/etc agreements will be held up by Malta or Latvia.

Why not? The Republic of Ireland probably has specific demands on Brexit negotiations. Cyprus might want that military base out, etc etc.

One of them is 'sovereign British territory', not sure if the other base is also.

[Zoupa]

Not quite, if France and Germany have a common mind on post-Brexit Britain it's a fait accompli; it's highly unlikely the trade/migration/etc agreements will be held up by Malta or Latvia.

Why not? The Republic of Ireland probably has specific demands on Brexit negotiations. Cyprus might want that military base out, etc etc.

One of them is 'sovereign British territory', not sure if the other base is also.

I believe everything is on the table now, borders included.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-scottish-mep-alyn-smith-standing-ovation-in-european-parliament-speech-scotland-a7107106.html

[Tamas]

It will be France and Germany driving the negotiations, obviously, but the other 25 will NOT let this golden opportunity pass to keep the UK (and/or France and Germany who wants to get done ASAP) hostage and profit on it.

eg. the East Euro countries will have to be bought on a hefty price if they are to agree to the UK curbing immigration while also receiving some kind of trade deal. That would not go down well with their own voters.

Spain has no reason to just let Gibraltar continue BAU after Brexit, not when the UK will HAVE to get a deal in 2 years, and any debate over it would be ohhh so sweet distraction for the home public, not to mention the points the government could score if they could actually grab Gibraltar back in some form.

And I am sure the list could go on.

Just because Leaving is now an established fact, it still means the UK has shot itself in the foot and will spend the next years desperately trying to recover from it with minimal damages. It will be a decade at least before the idea of a net positive Brexit can even be entertained.

[Zanza]

The history of every single EU negotiation ever suggests that Tamas is right and the negotiations will be very hard as you have to get unanimous agreement from 27 stakeholders.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Hard isn't really meaningful practically, lots of things are hard but necessary in the political world. Like the debt ceiling debates we had a few years back. There isn't a chance Britain and the EU don't work something more or less reasonable out. The EU has deals with Norway, Switzerland, Turkey etc.

Particularly with Turkey they have deals there and Turkey has illegally occupied half of an EU member country for a generation. The EU's dealings with Turkey are instructive, Cyprus has often taken hardline positions on any agreement with Turkey, then the large powerful EU countries start to quietly apply pressure on Cyprus. That's essentially how the EU typically works and why many citizens outside countries like France and Germany complain about the power of the large countries.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I think intransigent is a better word than hard. So the EU will insist on free movement if Britain is to continue to have full access to the single market. This is beneficial to the economies of both parties, so not hard as such, but it rather ruins the point of the whole Leave raison d'etre.

[Gups]

Hard isn't really meaningful practically, lots of things are hard but necessary in the political world. Like the debt ceiling debates we had a few years back. There isn't a chance Britain and the EU don't work something more or less reasonable out. The EU has deals with Norway, Switzerland, Turkey etc.

Particularly with Turkey they have deals there and Turkey has illegally occupied half of an EU member country for a generation. The EU's dealings with Turkey are instructive, Cyprus has often taken hardline positions on any agreement with Turkey, then the large powerful EU countries start to quietly apply pressure on Cyprus. That's essentially how the EU typically works and why many citizens outside countries like France and Germany complain about the power of the large countries.

Maybe, but who knows. The deals with Norway and Switzerland require them signing up to a bunch of things that are unpalatable to the leavers - contributions to the EU budget and free movement of people.

The Turkey deal would be OK but excludes services.

There's a lot of downside for the EU if the UK is perceived to have got away with a decent deal - I'd be surprised if there isn't a desire to punish the UK to discourage other potential exiters.

[The Brain]

The whole point is to actually leave, and now everyone knows that a majority of Brits REALLY dislike people from other EU countries since they are willing to take huge hits to get rid of them. It saddens me greatly that the UK decided to implode.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Hard isn't really meaningful practically, lots of things are hard but necessary in the political world. Like the debt ceiling debates we had a few years back. There isn't a chance Britain and the EU don't work something more or less reasonable out. The EU has deals with Norway, Switzerland, Turkey etc.

Particularly with Turkey they have deals there and Turkey has illegally occupied half of an EU member country for a generation. The EU's dealings with Turkey are instructive, Cyprus has often taken hardline positions on any agreement with Turkey, then the large powerful EU countries start to quietly apply pressure on Cyprus. That's essentially how the EU typically works and why many citizens outside countries like France and Germany complain about the power of the large countries.

Maybe, but who knows. The deals with Norway and Switzerland require them signing up to a bunch of things that are unpalatable to the leavers - contributions to the EU budget and free movement of people.

The Turkey deal would be OK but excludes services.

There's a lot of downside for the EU if the UK is perceived to have got away with a decent deal - I'd be surprised if there isn't a desire to punish the UK to discourage other potential exiters.

I hear what you're saying and I think any deal will leave UK unhappy about parts and the EU unhappy about parts--that's how most compromises work.

The UK's dream deal is: free access to the EU market, customs union, essentially no change to the flow of goods and services, but they unilaterally get to set immigration policy and etc.

That will simply never happen.

I'm not sure what the EU's dream deal is, but I think EEA-Norway status is pretty good for the EU. It establishes the EU as a rational actor, but also basically says "if you leave all you're getting is a loss of your vote in the EU." That actually is a pretty decent disincentive for other countries to leave. It's actually a tacit acceptance by Britain in the validity of free movement and etc.

If Britain legitimately elects a government that refuses free movement and etc, then I do think a much worse deal will emerge--for Britain (primarily) but also for the EU's economy. But I guess I'm just assuming Britain is going to have a strong dose of rationality and realize genuine disengagement is disastrous.

I don't think Turkey-status would be permitted--the customs union sans services, and with no free movement of peoples. That was a weird deal because Turkey actually wanted (didn't they actually get it this year as part of the refugee bargain?) free movement of people and trade, but the EU didn't want free movement of people. Turkey's goal is to eventually have genuine free movement, I don't think the EU will give Britain a permanent version of Turkey's deal.

[derspiess]

A country wanting to "unilaterally" set its own immigration policy??  The nerve.

[Valmy]

A country wanting to "unilaterally" set its own immigration policy??  The nerve.

Other countries not liking a country setting an immigration policy that hurts them?

I don't understand comments like this. If Argentina decided to capture and execute you next time you visited that would be within their rights to do so. The US might have a problem with it though. The nerve of the US?