The Summer 2016 UK Political and Constitutional Crisis

[mongers]

So, in all probability the UK is set for a political crisis this summer, whether it votes to remain in the EU or leave.



Just a place holder thread until we know the result on Friday. 

Thought your last predictions are welcome.



* NB I reserve the right to change the thread title to "The Summer 2016 UK Constitutional Crisis Megathread." depending on the out come.

[PJL]

There won't be a crisis if Remain wins, unless it's very tight. (by 1% or less). I think Jo Cox's murder has probably put paid to any plotting in the Tory Party. Also don't think Labour vote will collapse either, at least for now.

Leave aren't going to win either. So I expect it will be back to business as usual after this week.

[mongers]

There won't be a crisis if Remain wins, unless it's very tight. (by 1% or less). I think Jo Cox's murder has probably put paid to any plotting in the Tory Party. Also don't think Labour vote will collapse either, at least for now.

Leave aren't going to win either. So I expect it will be back to business as usual after this week.

Quoted for posterity. 


I should add if Remain wins only narrowly, my prediction is for riots in underprivileged 'white' parts of some UK cities and large towns, perhaps of similar scale to the early 80s inner city riots.

If there's a clear remain majority, I still see some hooliganism in a few towns. I think far-right groups are planning for such a reaction.

[dps]

Agree with PJL that Remain will win, which will avert any real crisis.

[jimmy olsen]

Agree with PJL that Remain will win, which will avert any real crisis.

I really don't think that's the case. I think this guy puts it very well.

Also liked that bit about Parliament I italicized.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/interrogation/2016/06/david_runciman_on_the_brexit_vote_and_how_it_will_affect_the_uk_and_europe.html

If Brexit succeeds, how do you see British democracy or British institutions changing?

I don't think there's a good outcome here. If Brexit succeeds, I don't think the immediate impact will be felt by people in the sense that there will be a massive run on the pound or people will suddenly notice that they're poorer. I think the immediate impact would be on politics and party politics: The two main parties will find it very difficult to hold together.

The really kind of interesting question is: If the British people, in a referendum, vote to leave, one of the things they're doing is reasserting the sovereignty of the British parliament, which you know that's part of the argument here, that British sovereignty has been sacrificed to European institutions, so they're saying, "We want to take sovereignty back to parliament." Parliament is massively in favor of remaining in the EU; there would be an overwhelming majority if you had a vote in parliament to stay. The institution whose sovereignty is being asserted doesn't want to leave, so that's going to be chaotic I think, and the immediate consequences will play out in party leaders falling. Cameron won't last long, Corbyn won't last long, and British politics will be reconfigured. If the idea is that by leaving we will restore confidence in British institutions, by leaving we'll put much more pressure on British institutions, and probably they'll start to creak.


And if you stay?

The difficulty is that the safest bet is that it's going to be close, so a large number of people are going to have voted to leave, and I think they will feel with some justification that every single weapon of the British state had been deployed to try and persuade them otherwise: the Bank of England, the Civil Service, all the party leaders, current prime ministers, former prime ministers Tony Blair, John Major, all these people, the Scottish party leaders, everyone has been wheeled out, the entire apparatus of the British state has been deployed to kind of stifle them. If still 48 percent of people voted to leave the key question for British politics would be, "Who's going to speak for those 48 percent?" Because all of the main parties will have been on the other side. You have half of the voters who will need representation, and again I think that's going to be very messy.


It could equally lead to the main parties splitting. There has been a lot of bad blood in this campaign. It's definitely, in my lifetime, been the most personally vicious campaign. You see it with the Republican Party, right? When the big divisions are inside political parties it's more personal, and there's a much stronger feeling of betrayal. Yeah, Democrats hate Republicans, and Republicans hate Democrats, but people can live with that. When Republicans hate Republicans or when conservatives hate conservatives, that bad blood can last for decades.

[Ed Anger]

I suggest the queen move her base to Oxford to raise her army against Parliament While the Duke of York sets the north aflame from the border to Glasgow.

[CountDeMoney]

I suggest the queen move her base to Oxford to raise her army against Parliament While the Duke of York sets the north aflame from the border to Glasgow.

Yahtzee!

[Monoriu]

Crisis?  What crisis?

[fromtia]

David Camerons human hologram suit will cease to function whatever the outcome. He will be sent back to the abyss prepared for him.

[mongers]

David Camerons human hologram suit will cease to function whatever the outcome. He will be sent back to the abyss prepared for him.

Fomtia !

Oh my goodness, how are you ?

[jimmy olsen]

David Camerons human hologram suit will cease to function whatever the outcome. He will be sent back to the abyss prepared for him.

Woah, long time no see. How have you been!?

[mongers]

Thread activated. 

[Drakken]

So, who's the likely caretaker undertaker PM that'll be forming the new Conservative government?

[mongers]

So, who's the likely caretaker undertaker PM that'll be forming the new Conservative government?

I think we'll have to wait for their night of long knives on Friday or the weekend.

[Sheilbh]

So, who's the likely caretaker undertaker PM that'll be forming the new Conservative government?

I still think Theresa May.

Also whoever it is will still probably win a majority when they face off against Jeremy Corbyn in 2020