The Summer 2016 UK Political and Constitutional Crisis

[Duque de Bragança]

There won't be a crisis if Remain wins, unless it's very tight. (by 1% or less). I think Jo Cox's murder has probably put paid to any plotting in the Tory Party. Also don't think Labour vote will collapse either, at least for now.

Leave aren't going to win either. So I expect it will be back to business as usual after this week.

Quoted for posterity. 


I should add if Remain wins only narrowly, my prediction is for riots in underprivileged 'white' parts of some UK cities and large towns, perhaps of similar scale to the early 80s inner city riots.

If there's a clear remain majority, I still see some hooliganism in a few towns. I think far-right groups are planning for such a reaction.

So do they wait for the WE and the WE binge drinking to start rioting?

[mongers]

There won't be a crisis if Remain wins, unless it's very tight. (by 1% or less). I think Jo Cox's murder has probably put paid to any plotting in the Tory Party. Also don't think Labour vote will collapse either, at least for now.

Leave aren't going to win either. So I expect it will be back to business as usual after this week.

Quoted for posterity. 


I should add if Remain wins only narrowly, my prediction is for riots in underprivileged 'white' parts of some UK cities and large towns, perhaps of similar scale to the early 80s inner city riots.

If there's a clear remain majority, I still see some hooliganism in a few towns. I think far-right groups are planning for such a reaction.

So do they wait for the WE and the WE binge drinking to start rioting?

I think there'll be some triumphal thuggery over the weekend, possibly a few unpleasant attacks on foreign looking people.

[mongers]

* NB I reserve the right to change the thread title to "The Summer 2016 UK Constitutional Crisis Megathread." depending on the out come.

I think I'm justified in renaming this thread to include the unfurling constitutional crisis.


Just holding out on the economic angle until we see how the markets steady over the next few weeks. 

[Valmy]

You guys really need some kind of law about these referendums. Because unless you do something there are going to be more and more of them with increasingly dysfunctional and disastrous results. If you are going to have them they need to be rare enough to take seriously and not be some kind of political football where the losing side starts plotting for the next one as soon as they lose. I just fear another Scottish referendum coming up soon.

[Valmy]

Sterling now:

£1                     buys                 change        %       
US Dollar           1.33160              -0.15560   -10.46

If this continues at this rate for a few months British real estate might start to become affordable. I have always wanted my own castle.

[Valmy]

So I see Cameron bailed. Who is going to be the one who takes a torch to Britain's treaty obligations?

[The Brain]

Sterling now:

£1                     buys                 change        %       
US Dollar           1.33160              -0.15560   -10.46

If this continues at this rate for a few months British real estate might start to become affordable. I have always wanted my own castle.

I call Stokesay, Raglan, Caerphilly, Warwick, Corfe and Portchester.

[Maladict]

Portchester.

[Phillip V]

Morning markets:  meh

Exxon Mobile and Apple are still above ~$90.  Stocks still look expensive to me.

[mongers]

Portchester.

Yeah, I make the occasional special visit to see it.

Though I don't get the love for Corfe, which is not far from here and the local geography makes it one of the silliest positioning of a castle I've seen.

[The Brain]

Though I don't get the love for Corfe, which is not far from here and the local geography makes it one of the silliest positioning of a castle I've seen.

[mongers]

Quite a few vociferous Brexiters said to me that with a Leave vote, the UK would then have the ability to go back to the EU and negotiate far better deals.

If they thought about it a little, it would have been clear that was never a realistic outcome, today's European response underlines that. 

[Sheilbh]

Stocks ended up up after their best week in a couple of months

As with the earlier numbers it doesn't really necessarily mean much at this stage.

[Barrister]

So Cameron is out, eh?  Things just get more and more interesting in the UK.

[Valmy]

So Cameron is out, eh?  Things just get more and more interesting in the UK.

Stephen Harper was so much better of a Tory.