This is why we need to stop being such douchebags about gun violence research

[MadBurgerMaker]

Aren't you the one who just said 20 lives isn't a meaningful difference in your opinion?

No? 

E:  Are you talking about 10 vs 30 round magazine sizes?  10 round magazine sizes would be allowed under an AWB type thing that actually bans stuff.  30 would not.  The difference is not meaningful when you're doing legal things with them imo.  Killing people in clubs is not legal as far as I know.

[LaCroix]

yeah, the sources the article uses is more about criminal enterprises than mass shooters. the problem is that mass shootings* are more popular these days than in the past. this wouldn't be possible if the US weren't a gun society, but it is, and that's not going to change for a long time. anti-gun control supporters are on the rise, probably due to political rhetoric, so guns will likely be readily available for decades at least and mass shootings will continue to occur. maybe over time they'll stop happening with as much frequency, but I don't think so--the cat's out of the bag.

*mass shootings defined as shootings in public places against unknown bystanders

[11B4V]

The research letter in the Journal of the American Medical Association on Tuesday takes a closer look at the nature of gunshot wounds in patients at Denver's largest trauma center. What it finds is that based on the increasing severity of gunshot wounds and the increasing number of patients shot multiple times, patients are now more likely to die from a gunshot wound than they were even 10 years ago. That's not the case for other trauma such as falls, accidents and stabbings.

Well yea. If someone falls off a building 3-4 times of course he has a greater chance of dying than if he just fell off once. Silly comparison. 

The data came from Denver Health Medical Center between 2000 and 2013, during which time death rates from gunshot wounds increased by about 6% on average every couple of years, according to the research. The authors are careful to say it is hard to extrapolate these data without having more of it from other trauma centers.

What data do you need. You don't really need any to come to a conclusion.

Specialty ammo+high capacity+rapid firing type actions= increased death rates from gunshot wounds.

But Denver doctors haven't forgotten how to treat trauma patients. The survivability rates from those other kinds of trauma show that the technology and the communication among the trauma teams, and the kind of care you can get, is "some of the best in the country," according to study author Dr. Angela Sauaia. What's changed, she said, is the nature of the gunshot injuries.

"To be blunt, instead of a 2-centimeter hole, you are seeing a 3-centimeter hole with more damage. And there are more wounds, so the team has to repair more damage," Sauaia said.

In handguns, specialty ammo like Hydra-Shoks will cause that. Those are more expensive than standard full metal jacket type surplus bullets. However specialty ammo is more prevalent in hand guns than usable in Assault Rifles.

Generally there are two categories of bullets;
1. Expanding
  a. non-jacketed lead: Wadcutter for example. More prevalent in handguns nowadays.
  b. jacketed soft points:
    1. Cup & Core: Designed with a copper jacket and a lead core. It usually has a small exposed lead tip. It is designed to expand for greater one shot killing capacity. Been around for over a century. Does not work well in assault rifles. Subject to core separation at high velocity. 
    2. Controlled expansion: developed in the '40's and '50's to minimize core separation, such as the Nosler partition. Aids in penetration on heavy game while maintaining bullet integrity. 
  c. expanding solid: All copper mix bullet with a hollow type point. Expensive
2. Non-expanding
  a. Full metal jacket: full metal/copper jacket with a softer lead type core. Readily available as surplus military ammo and the ammo of choice for these wack jobs with assault rifles.
  b. Solid: (not armor piercing which is illegal) mainly a solid copper type bullet with no provision to aid in expansion. Another in this category is tungsten core. Designed for penetration. Primarily used for dangerous game in large caliber stopping rifle. Very, very expensive.

A 5.56mm (3000 ft/sec muzzle velocity) with a regular soft point cup & core bullet at point blank range is absolutely devastating compared to the milsurplus FMJ at the same velocity and speed. Problem is, the assault rifle doesnt reliably feed soft point bullets. They are more expensive than milsurplus. 



 

The data do not get at why the injuries are more severe. Those records were unavailable to the team, Sauaia said, but co-author and world-renowned trauma surgeon Dr. Ernest Moore said he knows exactly what has changed. He blames the kinds of weapons used and the high capacity magazines.

"The handguns people use now have more of an ability to create severe tissue injury than the typical .38 Special injuries we used to see 15 or 20 years ago," Moore said. "And if you have weapons that deliver a multitude of bullets, allowing the shooter to continue shooting, (that) is far more damaging than the amount of energy delivered by a single bullet."

Yes getting shot more than once increases the damage and chance of dying.

"A key difference today in these mass shootings, and even in your bank robberies and assaults, is that now, individuals have these weapons that shoot multiple bullets without delay," Moore said. "It can be a challenge with that many bullets in that many body parts, and the damage is extensive."That is consistent with what gun experts say is the weapon of choice among American criminals.

Without delay...like a fully automatic weapon. I don't believe there are loads of automatic weapons on the streets. They are illegal and have been. Even a semi-auto has a delay.

[garbon]

Aren't you the one who just said 20 lives isn't a meaningful difference in your opinion?

No? 

E:  Are you talking about 10 vs 30 round magazine sizes?  10 round magazine sizes would be allowed under an AWB type thing that actually bans stuff.  30 would not.  The difference is not meaningful when you're doing legal things with them imo.  Killing people in clubs is not legal as far as I know.

Oh I misunderstood. Sorry.

[MadBurgerMaker]

No worries garb. I should have put "magazines" in there somewhere now that I'm looking at it. 

[The Minsky Moment]

Besides, criminals don't care about obeying the law, so . . .

If the premise is true that would suggest keeping regulation tight, because it increases the chance that someone will get caught on a weapons charge before they can commit a more serious crime. 

[OttoVonBismarck]

So as I asked, what's the upside of having those 20 people die when the downside simply seems to be - people can have a little less fun with guns?

I think government needs a good justification to ban anything, and saving twenty lives isn't that great of one, to me, when we're talking about a society-wide ban.

[OttoVonBismarck]

The issue in the article at least isn't that new tech is involved - it is in the types of guns criminals are using. At least according to the article, criminals even 15-20 years ago were more likely to rely on .38 "Saturday Night Specials". Now they are more likely to be using better quality automatics with large capacity magazines.

I'd argue a lot of that is probably cultural. In my youth a lot of people really preferred revolvers because there was the stereotype they were more reliable and that semiautomatic pistols were basically crap that failed all the time. Some of that critique of semiautos is  born out of reality, the older semiautomatics, and I mean like turn of the century 1911s up through maybe mid-20th century, weren't all that reliable. But by the time law enforcement agencies started phasing out revolvers (which was in the 70s), there wasn't much of a compelling argument for revolvers any longer.

Price is probably more or less a wash, some guns have gotten cheaper relatively (I remember a Mossberg pump gun was around $150 in the 80s and is only around $290 now, at the cheapest level, so it hasn't even kept up with inflation.) But a big caliber, well made semiautomatic was expensive  back then, and with many of them at $800-1000+ they're still pretty expensive today. You can find real cheap ones, but that was true back then, as well.

There are some really well made, higher caliber "pocket carry" guns, that are smaller and deadlier than comparatively small guns in the past. But frankly the difference in concealment, for the criminal use, between those guns and semiautomatics available in the 80s isn't all that great. Most of these guys are carrying waist band or jacket pocket.

None of the tech is new, it would seem: it is merely a change in patterns of use. At least, allegedly.

That would seem likely--and thus it would seem the premise of the thread, that diminished gun control has contributed to the lethality doesn't make a lot of sense. This stuff was available 30 years ago, it just wasn't used as much. There are exotic rounds, new ones come out all the time, but I think very few criminals use them--those are honestly more hobbyist use.

[CountDeMoney]

As far as Baltimore homicides go, figuring out why there has been an increase in GSW lethality in recent years has never really been rocket science:

% of GSW homicide victims shot in the head:
1995: 13.3%
1998: 22.0%
2009: 48.0%
 

Dr. Thomas M. Scalea, physician in chief at Maryland Shock Trauma Center, said he has not seen a marked increase in victims shot in the head, but said that could be because they are going straight to the morgue.

[viper37]

As for being on a FBI watchlist, the reality is he wasn't. He was in a database sometimes called a watchlist, but it's easy to get on that--and there's no due process at all. I'd be very hesitant to infringe on someone's rights because of the result of a process that involves no due process. To be honest both things they investigated him for were nonsense. He made some dumb statements and got looked at in 2013 and he basically admitted he was mad and said something stupid. Then in I think 2014 he said he knew a guy who was a suicide bomber in Syria. They investigated and found while he had had contact with him, it was extremely minimal. I'm not really sure what the FBI was supposed to do at that point, none of the things mentioned are criminal, or would even warrant charges. He wasn't even on the no-fly list.

this part, I don't quite get.
Someone admits he is mad, and you let him have assault rifles.

For a Québécois, I'm pretty liberal on gun control.  I'd let people have a handgun and carry it around, if they pass certain tests on a regulard basis.
But giving guns to people with any kind of mental health issues?  Assault rifles?  No frickin' way.

On the other side, he was a licensed security guard and had gone through a lot of hoops for that purposes, and even worked as an armed guard at a courthouse. I think there was little ability or reasonable way to stop Mateen without some draconian measures (like blanket deep surveillance of any "angry Muslims") that itself would raise serious constitutional concerns.

Hmm, aren't "hoops" for being a security guard much lower than anything else, even some civilian, non armed jobs in the government?

[The Minsky Moment]

As far as Baltimore homicides go, figuring out why there has been an increase in GSW lethality in recent years has never really been rocket science:

% of GSW homicide victims shot in the head:
1995: 13.3%
1998: 22.0%
2009: 48.0%

So GTA is to blame.  Damn video games.

[viper37]

Who would have thought 5 years ago that a socialist would be able to put such a good showing in the US?

it's not so much "socialism" as "fuck the system".  Similar vote to Trump, albeit not racist.

[11B4V]

As far as Baltimore homicides go, figuring out why there has been an increase in GSW lethality in recent years has never really been rocket science:

% of GSW homicide victims shot in the head:
1995: 13.3%
1998: 22.0%
2009: 48.0%
 

Dr. Thomas M. Scalea, physician in chief at Maryland Shock Trauma Center, said he has not seen a marked increase in victims shot in the head, but said that could be because they are going straight to the morgue.

It would appear marksmanship is improving.

[Razgovory]

Man, it would have been funny seeing Seedy work as a cop in the 1990's.


Det: "We found a real house of horrors here.  Who ever the perps are they're sick.  More than one as well.  Look how they hung the body"
Seedy  "Yes, sir"
Det "judging from the decomposition this body has been up like this for at least three months"
Seedy, "Uh sir, I think we can call off the APB"
Det "Why is that"
Seedy "John Hopkins has been dead for over 100 years and this is a medical school"
Det "Good point, but we aren't canceling the APB".

[viper37]

Besides, criminals don't care about obeying the law, so black market magazines, stolen from the military, would provide the holding capacity they wanted.

do criminals often attack civilians with assault rifles?  I don't think so.  Victims are collateral damages, not intended targets in such shootings.

That particular point is moot.

Not that you need large capacity mags. I can reload in under a second. If my old ass can do that anyone can with a little practice.

Of course.  All we need is intensive training in our local militia since birth, in the IDF when we reach our teens, and in the US Army a little later on.  Anyone can do that.