Green Energy Revolution Megathread

[Zanza]

Maybe he's not trying to kill off  the ICE, but rather the false totem of individualism with regard to mass transport by car? 

Maybe. Tesla said that they want to make big advances in manufacturing ("the machine that builds the machine") and moving away from individualized cars to more standardized cars would certainly change the trend the industry has been going for decades now. If consumers accept the sparse interior in exchange for self-driving capability and a touchscreen with a modern entertainment system are now more important features than personalized interiors etc. that would be fairly disruptive for the car industry. More than the electric powertrain as that has already been internalized into the strategies of every car maker.

[crazy canuck]

Maybe he's not trying to kill off  the ICE, but rather the false totem of individualism with regard to mass transport by car? 

Maybe. Tesla said that they want to make big advances in manufacturing ("the machine that builds the machine") and moving away from individualized cars to more standardized cars would certainly change the trend the industry has been going for decades now. If consumers accept the sparse interior in exchange for self-driving capability and a touchscreen with a modern entertainment system are now more important features than personalized interiors etc. that would be fairly disruptive for the car industry. More than the electric powertrain as that has already been internalized into the strategies of every car maker.

I am not so sure the self driving car is going to be successful for individuals.  It will likely have a big impact on the transport industry but I am not sure individual drivers will find the self driving tech very appealing.  Also, the theory that people will use uber ordered self driving cars rather than purchase their own cars is, I think, unlikely.  Not purchasing a car and simply ordering a taxi has always been less costly - at least in urban areas - but people still like to have their own vehicles.

As for design, I think that will be determined by the engineering necessary to obtain greater range.

[Eddie Teach]

Not purchasing a car and simply ordering a taxi has always been less costly - at least in urban areas -

You've heard of used cars, right?

[11B4V]

Not purchasing a car and simply ordering a taxi has always been less costly - at least in urban areas -

You've heard of used cars, right?

Ride a bike or the public bus system

[11B4V]

Ed takes a Rickshaw.

[11B4V]

 Pedaled by an oriental.

[Iormlund]

Tesla started the production of their new model recently. Their ramp up curve is fairly slow, but will be interesting to see if they can reach the 20,000 cars per month in December. Apparently the car only has two options: color and wheel size. That's an interesting approach when most other car companies go towards individualization of the vehicles with very small lot sizes, often lot size of one built to the customer's specific order.

Individualization regarding cosmetics, maybe. Almost everything else is being harmonized as much as possible.

I'm the manufacturing engineer responsible for certain component for a German OEM. They are pushing hard for a global supply chain. They chose a design, and every component manufacturer has to adhere to this design, worldwide. Identical or virtually indistinguishable products are present anywhere from low tier platforms to high end vehicles. At least 4 Tier 1s are producing the same parts, which is a complete pain in the ass for us. Every change request is a fucking nightmare, as it has to be agreed upon and tested by all parts involved (meaning FEA, crash tests, etc).

[Eddie Teach]

Not purchasing a car and simply ordering a taxi has always been less costly - at least in urban areas -

You've heard of used cars, right?

Ride a bike or the public bus system

He said taxis were cheaper, didn't say anything about the bus.

[jimmy olsen]

Maybe he's not trying to kill off  the ICE, but rather the false totem of individualism with regard to mass transport by car? 

Maybe. Tesla said that they want to make big advances in manufacturing ("the machine that builds the machine") and moving away from individualized cars to more standardized cars would certainly change the trend the industry has been going for decades now. If consumers accept the sparse interior in exchange for self-driving capability and a touchscreen with a modern entertainment system are now more important features than personalized interiors etc. that would be fairly disruptive for the car industry. More than the electric powertrain as that has already been internalized into the strategies of every car maker.

That's just a temporary thing on Tesla's part though. They're busy scaling from a niche automaker to mass production, so keeping things simple for now helps that. They had a lot of problems due to having too many models when they introduced the Model X SUV last year. They want to avoid those pitfalls, but as they ramp up next year they are going to introduce more options.

[Ed Anger]

Pedaled by an oriental.

I wish.

[Zanza]

I am not so sure the self driving car is going to be successful for individuals.  It will likely have a big impact on the transport industry but I am not sure individual drivers will find the self driving tech very appealing.  Also, the theory that people will use uber ordered self driving cars rather than purchase their own cars is, I think, unlikely.  Not purchasing a car and simply ordering a taxi has always been less costly - at least in urban areas - but people still like to have their own vehicles.

As for design, I think that will be determined by the engineering necessary to obtain greater range.

I think self-driving cars for individuals will come and be popular. Most driving is just a hassle to get from A to B.
As far as sharing cars is concerned, your hometown of Vancouver is probably the world capital of car sharing. I think it will increase with driverless cars as that will allow better network distribution for better availability. But a lot of people like to have their personal stuff (child seats etc.) in their car and there is still a huge peak at rush hour and that can't be covered by fleets that need constant usage.

[Zanza]

Individualization regarding cosmetics, maybe. Almost everything else is being harmonized as much as possible.

Yes, I meant cosmetics and optional features where customers have more choice than ever. The platform is of course standardised as much as possible wit tradiational OEMs. You sometimes have like eight derivatives from a single platform.
Interesting enough that Tesla will go for a new platform for their next model "Y". Supposedly because they want to switch from 12V to 48V wiring and replace the CAN bus. Which is something the Germans OEMs did with their top platforms already but maybe not as consequently as they typically have both systems side by side.

I'm the manufacturing engineer responsible for certain component for a German OEM. They are pushing hard for a global supply chain. They chose a design, and every component manufacturer has to adhere to this design, worldwide. Identical or virtually indistinguishable products are present anywhere from low tier platforms to high end vehicles. At least 4 Tier 1s are producing the same parts, which is a complete pain in the ass for us. Every change request is a fucking nightmare, as it has to be agreed upon and tested by all parts involved (meaning FEA, crash tests, etc).

Four suppliers for one part is rather unusual as far as I can tell unless the part is commodity and not specifically designed. Otherwise tooling seems prohibitively expensive. Or are the tools where you work not owned by the OEM?

[Iormlund]

I'm the manufacturing engineer responsible for certain component for a German OEM. They are pushing hard for a global supply chain. They chose a design, and every component manufacturer has to adhere to this design, worldwide. Identical or virtually indistinguishable products are present anywhere from low tier platforms to high end vehicles. At least 4 Tier 1s are producing the same parts, which is a complete pain in the ass for us. Every change request is a fucking nightmare, as it has to be agreed upon and tested by all parts involved (meaning FEA, crash tests, etc).

Four suppliers for one part is rather unusual as far as I can tell unless the part is commodity and not specifically designed. Otherwise tooling seems prohibitively expensive. Or are the tools where you work not owned by the OEM?

They usually are, yes. I don't know why the production is spread like this, but it might be just a matter of logistics (since the project is global). Figures are also quite high: my slice of the pie means over 4000 carsets per day (all for Western Europe), and there are many more platforms involved.

[CountDeMoney]

I think self-driving cars for individuals will come and be popular.

So many people are going to die 

[Zanza]

I think self-driving cars for individuals will come and be popular.

So many people are going to die 

Computers will soon be better drivers than humans.