Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Zanza]

By the way, I think limiting public discussion of the EU to economic topics is one of the reasons it has such a poor image. But it serves as the framework for cooperation and integration in many other policy areas as well. It's sad that Britain no longer wants to participate in these either.

[Sheilbh]

I think a staged withdrawal is the only practical one.

An FTA-relationship will take a long time to negotiate even though we start from the position of EU compliance and I imagine there will be some parts of other policy areas - eg. security cooperation - that both sides will want to maintain. It then has to be ratified by all 27 member states' parliaments (I believe, constitutionally, Ireland actually has to have a referendum!). Philip Hammond estimated it would take six years but that's optimistic given that Canada took 7 and is still not done - though as I say it should be easier because our starting position is that we are acquis compliant.

But there's no plausible way it can be done in two years or under so one option is that we delay starting indefinitely, or face the prospect of everyone having to extend our membership for a while. I think the sensible alternative is that we start negotiations on what our new relationship will be and activate article 50 on the understanding that we'll just move to EEA after the two years while negotiations continue until a deal is reached. I don't really see what the EU loses from it or how it would tie up political energy or be any more of a never ending story than the alternatives. But I think both sides would just need to be clear from the start that EEA status is not an acceptable endpoint and we can't change the game half-way through to working towards EEA plus or minus.

I think everyone accepts there will eventually be some form of deal between the UK and the EU creating some form of relationship and we're not Greece so, to be honest, I think there'll be some tensions and brinkmanship on occasion but I generally expect the negotiations to be relatively workmanlike once they actually get started. Given that I don't think it's in anyone's interests to, after two years, create an entirely needless disruption and shock of all of those ties being cut.

[Sheilbh]

By the way, I think limiting public discussion of the EU to economic topics is one of the reasons it has such a poor image. But it serves as the framework for cooperation and integration in many other policy areas as well. It's sad that Britain no longer wants to participate in these either.

Britain's almost never been terribly keep on those. As I say I actually think it may be better for both of us if we're not in Europe just causing issues and demanding opt-outs whenever there's any sort of treaty change or new proposal coming up.

Incidentally Theresa May as Home Secretary won a lot of praise from Eurocrats and civil servants here for her handling of the home and security in the EU bit of her brief. She was apparently quite skillful in negotiating opt outs and opt ins over about 50 new policy areas (like the European Arrest Warrant or the Prum agreement) and was, apparently, one of the driving forces behind the European passenger record database.

Edit: In fact her Remain speech was an argument that I think would have won the referendum rather than the economic 'project fear' approach and it was at least in part grounded on a non-economic argument:
http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/04/theresa-mays-speech-on-brexit-full-text.html

Edit: Also as I said elsewhere I think that speech is very cogent and tightly argued and as someone on the Left - she's coming for us and it's terrifying

Though given the state of British politics at the minute I think it's equally likely her government collapses within the year or that she retires to great acclaim in her early 70s having defined a generation.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Is there any possibility if she does call new elections she loses? At this point I cannot even imagine Labour coming close to a majority in Parliament. Even if they were in a coalition with SNP, and I find it likely the tories would win another outright majority.

[Sheilbh]

Some polling released tonight:


At the moment Labour needs to gain 94 seats to win which, without Scotland, strikes me as highly implausible.

If Corbyn is in charge I don't see that there is anyway May wouldn't have an increased majority, probably quite significantly. I'd also not be surprised if there was some form of UKIP Parliamentary breakthrough in the, about, 20% of Labour seats in the North that have UKIP as the second largest party.

If Corbyn were to be replaced by Owen Smith or Angela Eagle I think it would be likely that they would lose less seats, but that May would still probably increase her majority.

But there's always a possibility and part of the reason I'm so anti-Corbyn is that even though I cannot foresee the circumstances that end up with him as Prime Minister it shouldn't even be a possibility.

Edit: One of the cross-tabs of that poll: 35-40% of 2015 Labour voters think May would make for a better Prime Minister than Corbyn. At the minute the polling is so bad for Labour that it would struggle in a general election where only Labour voters could vote

[Richard Hakluyt]

The principal problem with calling elections is that we get another month with no government and no direction, potentially with disastrous consequences, May is right to be ruling it out.

[Sheilbh]

I think the start of Yvette Cooper's LabourList article is right:

Don't believe Theresa May when she says she won't call an election this year. I've shadowed this new Prime Minister for many years and I know how she works.

Those who think she is too risk averse are misjudging her – she does take risks, she just takes care to calculate them first. Nor is she too committed to an election in 2020 – I've watched her do many strategic u-turns over the years.

Labour is kidding ourselves if we think we have four years to sort ourselves out – we need to be ready fast.

Here's what I think Theresa May will do.

All summer she will work relentlessly on the European negotiation plan. She will continue to say she doesn't want an election before 2020 – she won't want expectations rising so that, unlike Gordon Brown, she isn't boxed in.

But she will also prepare. Because remember that she only has a majority of 12. That means if things get tough – especially on Europe – she will have to compromise and do deals to get things through. Theresa May is far too stubborn and self-reliant to want to be dependent on deals with hostile backbenchers (Especially Michael Gove or George Osborne).

Think how tempting it will be for her to set out her negotiating strategy and then ask the country give her a strong mandate to go and negotiate with Merkel, Hollande, Junker and the rest – a patriotic appeal to the British people to back her in a tough negotiation.

As for timing? She will want several months to look Prime Ministerial and draw up her plans. She will want to enjoy the adulation of Tory party conference (especially following Labour's conference the week before). Then she will be very attracted by getting her own mandate in an election in the first week in November (same timing as the Police and Crime Commissioner elections that she brought in four years ago).

Of course if events have blown her off course by then, if the EU negotiating strategy looks too difficult, or most important of all, if the economy is in recession by the Autumn, then she will stay put.

But if the economy is in gradual decline instead, then she may want to get an election over before it gets worse.She will reflect on the lesson not just from Gordon Brown's failure to hold a swift election in 2007 before the financial crisis fully kicked in, but also Jim Callaghan's failure to call an election in the autumn of 1978 before the winter of discontent lost him the election the following spring.

[Valmy]

Edit: One of the cross-tabs of that poll: 35-40% of 2015 Labour voters think May would make for a better Prime Minister than Corbyn. At the minute the polling is so bad for Labour that it would struggle in a general election where only Labour voters could vote

Those Blairites need to be purged from the party! So that Labour can do what the working people of Britain need them to do: lose. Lose big. Lose often. Lose so much you won't even believe it.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Ugh, I hope there isn't a British election first week of November. The political junkie in me cannot handle a simultaneous U.S. and British election.

[Sheilbh]

Edit: One of the cross-tabs of that poll: 35-40% of 2015 Labour voters think May would make for a better Prime Minister than Corbyn. At the minute the polling is so bad for Labour that it would struggle in a general election where only Labour voters could vote

Those Blairites need to be purged from the party! So that Labour can do what the working people of Britain need them to do: lose. Lose big. Lose often. Lose so much you won't even believe it.

You joke but I've genuinely seen people suggest the upside of losing would be there's lots of moderates in marginal seats and they'd be the first to go

[Tamas]

Sheilbh imthinkmyou keep analysing the rationality of the exit process purely from the British perspective, which is only one of the 27 sides of this problem, actually.

A staged withdrawal may sound very bad for the EU, where there are a number of ticking time bombs, Italy in particular, and the last thing they probably need is a non-final Brexit status for years to come.

Sure, it is impossible to solve all open questions to Briatin's benefit in two years but that is hardly the EU's problem now.

[garbon]

They don't actually have a way to force the issue, do they?

[Agelastus]

Sure, it is impossible to solve all open questions to Briatin's benefit in two years but that is hardly the EU's problem now.

It's unlikely that all "open questions" will be resolved to Britain's benefit anyway; many of those who voted out always understood there would be a price, the question was whether the short to medium term pain would be worth the medium to long term gain. However, leaving "open questions" is hardly advantageous to the EU either so I disagree with your comment that that is hardly the EU's problem now.

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As an aside, just discovered yesterday that my 18 year old second cousin, exercising her vote for the first time, voted "out"; her mother broke family ranks, as far as I can tell, by voting "remain" (she's seven years older than me so heading into the "solidly leave" age groups.)

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I've heard 'quick divorce' voices from German Social Democrats, Juncker, the Belgians and the French -

The belgian PM does not speak for Flanders in this regard. On the contrary. Michel should stop sucking French cock and start thinking about the interests of the single region that keeps his shitty country afloat. Which just shows -again- that there are no belgians.

[Richard Hakluyt]

As expected I met a number of Brexiters on my visit to Seaham/Sunderland. They were very worried about immigration, which barely happens in those towns of course, even the cab drivers are all white British. One of them told me that Blackpool had been ruined by a mass influx of Poles who just sat around all day claiming benefits