Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Capetan Mihali]

  "The Freshmaker" is just such a Madison Avenuesque, American-sounding catchphrase (not to mention the series of very memorable TV ads for Mentos), I was mislead.

Really?  "The Freshmaker?"  I always thought they were laughable I no speak English so good.  And the kids flitting around on their Vespas with sweaters around their necks, and burly construction workers picking up 300 pound minicars could only have been shot in Europe.

  I'm remembering the commercials such as the one where the guy in a suit sits down on a freshly-painted white bench, faces despair, then just pinstripes it with paint.  And I thought "The Freshmaker" was catchy.  Interesting difference in perception; I was significantly younger when they were being aired which probably influenced things.

FWIW, the "Gimme a break, gimme a break, break me off a piece of that Kit Kat bar" series of commercials, I also thought was advertising genius, and has always given me a soft spot for Kit Kat bars, though I rarely buy them.

The Snickers "hunger" themed ads, on the other hand, I found repellent for some reason.

[Josquius]

Come on yourself!

"Exasperating" a problem, using your words, means they're a part of the problem; don't weasel. If 50,0000 come in when 50,000 are planned for how can they not be part of the problem. Just not the main part which can be placed squarely at the door of all Parties over the last forty years (I doubt there's very many Liberal Democrat controlled authorities, let alone Tory or Labour, who've built all the social housing they could have done over that period - heck, back in the Eighties they didn't spend the money that Thatcher actually did say they could, inadequate as even I admit that was.)

The percentages I gave were only demonstrative - would you have preferred I used 90%/10% instead?

A few points on this one.
1: EU migrants are a fraction of migrants overall.



Its only in the past 3 years that the two numbers have been remotely comparable. Most years non-EU migrants are double EU migrants.

2: EU migrants tend to be young and in the prime of their working life.
This means:
a: They pay more into the system overall than they cost
b: They tend to live 5 or 6 to a house. Really not taking up much space.

3:
The numbers used in this map are towards the extreme end I admit. Nonetheless Brits in Europe are around the 2 million mark. Vs 3 million Europeans in Britain.
1 million growth in a decade and a half? Combined with a low British birth rate? We should be able to handle that.

4: If 500,000 come when 50,000 are planned for....there you're making the mistake of assuming the government is planning for anything.
As you say the true cause of the housing crisis isn't the convenient scapegoat of foreigners. Its shitty government housing policy since the 80s. Selling off council housing stock and doing no new building of their own, blindly relying on the market to sort it out.

Whatever good arguments there may be for leave the housing crisis is F.A to do with it.
It's just the typical tactic you see UKIP taking of trying to present the referendum not as a referendum on whether to stay on the EU or not but as a referendum on whether we want to stop bad things (tm).

[Zanza]

What happens to UKIP if "Leave" wins? Will they disband/join the Tories again?

[Josquius]

What happens to UKIP if "Leave" wins? Will they disband/join the Tories again?

First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Socialist.

Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

[Agelastus]

Its only in the past 3 years that the two numbers have been remotely comparable. Most years non-EU migrants are double EU migrants.

Note that for most years this fraction is still above the amount Labour thought this net migration would be. Numbers count.

2: EU migrants tend to be young and in the prime of their working life.
This means:
a: They pay more into the system overall than they cost
b: They tend to live 5 or 6 to a house. Really not taking up much space.

Yep, best workers I've ever worked with; much more reliable than the Britons at the same company (with a few honourable exceptions.)

But even living 5 or 6 to a house doesn't completely take them out of the housing issue - given the numbers they'd need to live 12-15 to a house for that, at least.

The numbers used in this map are towards the extreme end I admit. Nonetheless Brits in Europe are around the 2 million mark. Vs 3 million Europeans in Britain.
1 million growth in a decade and a half? Combined with a low British birth rate? We should be able to handle that.

I would have thought my comments concerning local authority social housing construction and the percentages I used should have rendered this part of your post mostly redundant. Being a supporter of controlled immigration does not make one a supporter of no immigration.

Also, the latest UN figures say 1.2 million spread out across every country in Europe; that's a bit different to 3 million in one of the most densely populated countries in the EU.

If 500,000 come when 50,000 are planned for....there you're making the mistake of assuming the government is planning for anything.

There were publicly released estimates by the Labour government before the Eastern European countries joined the EU concerning what they felt the effect would be on net migration. These were used by government ministries and local authorities. The fact that they were so completely wrong doesn't mean they didn't exist.

As you say the true cause of the housing crisis isn't the convenient scapegoat of foreigners. Its shitty government housing policy since the 80s. Selling off council housing stock and doing no new building of their own, blindly relying on the market to sort it out.

Shitty government policy, yes - but not all central government policy. During the Eighties a proportion of the proceeds from the Housing sell-offs were released to local authorities to build new social housing, but since it wasn't ring fenced...well, I'm sure you can see what happened then.

[And before you accuse me of pro-Thatcher bias I first heard of this from a politically active Liberal Democrat local government official. Before that I, shamefully, believed the myth that Thatcher prevented any of the proceeds being used for Social Housing.]

Whatever good arguments there may be for leave the housing crisis is F.A to do with it.

It is part of the argument regarding the overstretch of our services; housing is a small, small part of it because the main problem has been long term government policy. It should still be seen as part of the whole argument concerning services which includes the NHS, schools, etc.

It's just the typical tactic you see UKIP taking of trying to present the referendum not as a referendum on whether to stay on the EU or not but as a referendum on whether we want to stop bad things (tm).

Given the crap that the remain side has thrown around about employment law etc. I hardly think UKIP can be singled out on the "want to stop bad things" instead of providing substance argument.

Corbyn's/Labour's rattling on and on about the four weeks holiday bit at the moment, isn't he? No mention of how Labour fucked up the drafting of that law and ended up being told so when they took an employer to court, is there? Or that it was the Coalition that actually fixed this after Labour had ignored it for ten years.

Then there's the "food prices could rise" bit; food prices rose when we joined due to the different nature of CAP to the preceding British subsidy system, and I don't believe they've gone down all the way to the world prices as was the case pre-1973 even with the CAP reforms. So they went up when we joined and they'll go up when we leave? Now that really is scaremongering.

The sheer crap being broadcast by both sides that they're not being called on is sickening.

[Agelastus]

What happens to UKIP if "Leave" wins? Will they disband/join the Tories again?

Knowing Farage, probably not; he needs a vehicle and he's not someone who's content playing second fiddle. While I don't subscribe to the "he's scum" rhetoric of far to many people on the pro-European side (or on the left of British politics) he's certainly not a Cincinnatus who'll go home when the crisis is past.

The Lib-Dems tried to be a third force in the centre - he'll try to be a third force wherever he can find a base.

[Agelastus]

Aww Mensa is looking all stupid.

I think the amusing thing about that is that if I recall correctly I was claiming, arrogantly and with a degree of absence of forethought, to be smarter than Martinus; back then I might have agreed with 10% of his opinions, at most. Now it's somewhere between 30 and 40%. 

His turnabout on certain issues has been so swift as to make me suspect him of trolling.

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Anyway, regarding the post you were responding to. Although while I'll admit the prose was somewhat confused (I hesitated four times before posting the last sentence as it didn't really scan as I would have liked) do you have any particular argument to make?

[Zanza]

Why would British public services like the NHS not scale with more taxpayers? It is all paid as you go anyway, right?

Is the problem with housing that no one invests into cheap housing or that government regulations stop willing investors?

[Zanza]

Agreed on Farage needing the attention, but the rank and file of UKIP and its voters? If it is Boris vs Farage I don't see space for Farage.

[Admiral Yi]

Is the problem with housing that no one invests into cheap housing or that government regulations stop willing investors?

My understanding is the problem is exasperated by height restrictions and green space restrictions.

[Agelastus]

Why would British public services like the NHS not scale with more taxpayers? It is all paid as you go anyway, right?

Well, I think it comes down to two issues -

(1) Timelag - the people are here now but the expanded facilities, trained people etc. are a few years (or more given your average political reaction time to an issue) down the line. The next big crush is going to be schools as for the coming years the primary intake is going to soar compared to even five years ago, let alone ten.

For the last 15 years British governments haven't exactly covered themselves in glory in planning for this - starting with Labour way back when Eastern Europe first joined they've been consistently left behind by events.

(2) The nature of the taxpayers in question - the majority of the European immigrant taxpayers will be standard rate taxpayers who will probably take as much out by using the NHS as they're paying for in their taxes, certainly in the medium term. Compared to higher rate taxpayers who are likely to put more into the NHS kitty than they take out (even with all their derided tax breaks etc.)

This is an issue due to the fact that even with immigration we still have an increasing number of the aged who need care - the legacy of previous "baby booms" and better lifetime healthcare; the NHS has to expand just to stand still at the moment.

Is the problem with housing that no one invests into cheap housing or that government regulations stop willing investors?

Tyr can probable give you a better breakdown of the issues than me, here.

[Agelastus]

Agreed on Farage needing the attention, but the rank and file of UKIP and its voters? If it is Boris vs Farage I don't see space for Farage.

Given the number of UKIP voters who are ex-Labour you may be surprised. That's why I didn't specify where Farage might try to build a base from. Boris certainly doesn't appeal to the northern working class even if you put his specific toxicity in Liverpool aside.

[I think he'll fail, of course; an "out" vote is actually likely to restabilise British politics into a two party system in my opinion.]

[Richard Hakluyt]

Is the problem with housing that no one invests into cheap housing or that government regulations stop willing investors?

My understanding is the problem is exasperated by height restrictions and green space restrictions.

Planning restrictions and the British dislike for apartment blocks account for a lot of the problems. On the other hand the SE of England has about 25 million people in 10,000 square miles and still has a lot of lovely countryside, which is quite an achievement. One reason for the populism plaguing our politics is that the housing shortage has made a lot of money for some people, whilst screwing others into the ground; the establishment are among the beneficiaries of course and seem little inclined to sort the problem out.

[Zanza]

@Agelastus: Timelag is not really an excuse. It has been ten years since the Eastern Europeans started coming. Your government could and should have reacted by now. Leaving Europe because your government mishandled policy is a really poor reason. Do you expect any effect on government competence whatsoever?

Paying average taxes should be sufficient to finance a scaling of the services or am I not getting something here?

[Zanza]

I doubt that your political landscape will restabilize. The various separatist parties, especially SNP, are there to stay. The LibDems will bounce back a bit and there might be enough disgruntled English to keep UKIP around, at least strong enough to hurt the Tories.