Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[derspiess]

I don't think it's too ridiculous to conclude that Obama doesn't particularly like the UK.

[Eddie Teach]

Though for all the talk about how Obama hates the UK and Obama hates Israel, how much has US foreign policy actually changed?

[Gups]

I don't think it's too ridiculous to conclude that Obama doesn't particularly like the UK.

Why do you think that?

[Norgy]

He might not like Dodgy Dave.

[Josquius]

Am I the only one genuinely scared that leave could win here?

[Tamas]

Am I the only one genuinely scared that leave could win here?

No.

[mongers]

Am I the only one genuinely scared that leave could win here?

No.

I think it's a 30% or so possibility.

[Tamas]

I think it is pretty close to 50%.

The pro side is doing a horrible job, operating only with negativity. The positives and energy is all on the brexit side, which is somewhat understandable but still silly.

[Josquius]

Well, the remain side can't not be negative to some extent, its not a starting from 0 do we choose A or B decision, its a decision where we already have something and the question is do we want to get rid of it or not.
And its not like the leave campaign isn't overwhelmingly negative too with all their fear of foreigners rhetoric.
Nonetheless the remain campaign is proving rather crap.

[Agelastus]

Am I the only one genuinely scared that leave could win here?

Much as I want it to, I'm afraid you have no need to fear; "leave" won't win.

What it may do is end up as a close result, which in some ways would be the worst of all possible worlds. One way or the other the result needs to be decisive lest we end up with the same situation Scotland has ("well, if you do this it will justify another referendum"ism.)

[Agelastus]

Nonetheless the remain campaign is proving rather crap.

I dunno, the sight of George Osborne trying to convince us to stay in by saying "the housing market will suffer", "house prices might nor rise as fast" is really quite amusing given the underlying causes of the housing crisis (80% not enough built for forty years and 20% more people entering the country than was planned for.) 

Plus with so many people being priced out of the market wouldn't a lot of people want the housing market to stutter and prices to stabilise or fall? Even as unwelcome for the economy (and how they measure it) as that would be.

[Zanza]

Am I the only one genuinely scared that leave could win here?

I think the Leave vote is fueled by the same anti-establishment feelings that also brought populists into power in Eastern Europe or won Trump the nomination. So it is very much possible that it could also lead to a Leave vote.

[Josquius]

Am I the only one genuinely scared that leave could win here?

Much as I want it to, I'm afraid you have no need to fear; "leave" won't win.

What it may do is end up as a close result, which in some ways would be the worst of all possible worlds. One way or the other the result needs to be decisive lest we end up with the same situation Scotland has ("well, if you do this it will justify another referendum"ism.)

It's the worst possible time for the referendum at the moment really coming just after the eurozone crisis and not too long after the UK finally got out of the 2008 doldrums. The eurozone is trending upwards but its numbers still make pretty scary reading, this pushes a lot towards leave.
Then there's eastern europe's development and backlog of people who want to try working abroad. Give it a decade or two and a more equal and established EU and the threat of eastern europeans won't be so great either (something leave is trying to address by spreading fear about Turkey joining).
I'm not too worried about a future referendum, leave is fighting a losing battle where their case becomes weaker as time goes on. If we somehow slip out in this one though...then that's my life screwed up, 2008 here we come again.

I dunno, the sight of George Osborne trying to convince us to stay in by saying "the housing market will suffer", "house prices might nor rise as fast" is really quite amusing given the underlying causes of the housing crisis (80% not enough built for forty years and 20% more people entering the country than was planned for.) 

Come on, you're smarter than to repeat that typical UKIP lie. The causes of the housing crisis are nothing to do with EU migration. Even looking at migration as a whole they merely exasperate a problem caused by other means.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I think it is pretty close to 50%.

The pro side is doing a horrible job, operating only with negativity. The positives and energy is all on the brexit side, which is somewhat understandable but still silly.

Odd thing that the pro-camp didn't come out with the argument that staying in would annoy the French, and spite the ghost of DeGaulle. :p

[Josquius]

I think it is pretty close to 50%.

The pro side is doing a horrible job, operating only with negativity. The positives and energy is all on the brexit side, which is somewhat understandable but still silly.

Odd thing that the pro-camp didn't come out with the argument that staying in would annoy the French, and spite the ghost of DeGaulle. :p

That sort of thing is kept for Merkel-Hitler.