Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Admiral Yi]

so, unlike the candy, it can be true. just highly over-reported? I wonder what an arab could actually do with seven children, a burka, and no job. some think prosper. is that really true?

I don't think I've ever read a single story about lazy immigrants mooching off the dole.

Maybe once or twice in passing talking about some jihadist imam doing it.

[Martinus]

One thing that puzzles me in all the analyses of Brexit is how little space is devoted to considering indirect effects on the British economy. Britain has a relatively stagnant domestic market - a lot of its economy is generated by providing banking, insurance, advisory and legal services to external clients. A lot of this is influenced by the fact that British banks and insurers can operate on a cross border basis in countries like Germany and France (which actually do have domestic economy and industry), rulings of English courts are automatically enforceable across the EU (that is why English - not German or NY - law is the law of choice for European cross border transactions), etc. It is extremely naive that once Britain exits the EU, the bankers, insurers and lawyers from Frankfurt, Dusseldorf, Munich or Paris will let their governments agree to their Brish competitors continuing to enjoy these privileges.

But at least there is, therefore, hope that Brexit would stop immigrants from coming to the UK - because they will no longer want to.

[celedhring]

The EU held all the aces; as you say, Brexit would cripple the UK. However, some of the demands the UK made, in particular those focusing on immigration, are shared by other EU governments, and Cameron has been smart to lean on that.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Cameron's error was pandering too much to his domestic audience rather than leading the critics within the EU. It is shocking to think how poor British diplomacy is these days.

I think that many of our problems here in the UK are due to a false or outdated concept of where the country is heading. Back in the 1970s the population was stagnant and net immigration was negative most years. I think we still have the same mindset as we had in those years but net migration is now 300,000+ and the population is expanding at about 1% per annum. As a consequence there is insufficient housing and public services struggle to cope. This is a problem of success and I'd much rather have that success than be a country with a declining population and all the problems that brings. The pressure an increasing population has on housing and services is particularly bad for the less skilled parts of the British population, one reason why they are so anti the EU whereas the elite sections are generally pro-EU.

See this article for more details on that split http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21693223-britains-great-european-divide-really-about-education-and-class-tale-two-cities .

(Incidentally, I see that marti is persisting in his strange belief that the UK does not have an industrial sector. In fact, at 10% of GDP, our industrial sector is similar in size to that of France or the USA. It is Germany, with 20%, that is the weirdo in advanced economies so there  )

[Caliga]

If I was British no way in hell would I want to be part of any union including Greece, Italy, and other such dysfunctional economies.

[Martinus]

If I was British no way in hell would I want to be part of any union including Greece, Italy, and other such dysfunctional economies.

Ok, now I see how you guys must feel when us Euros make those ignorant, idiotic statements about American politics...

[garbon]

Apparently BoJo will be pushing for the UK to leave the EU.

[Martinus]

Apparently BoJo will be pushing for the UK to leave the EU.

He is an idiot after all.

[grumbler]

(Incidentally, I see that marti is persisting in his strange belief that the UK does not have an industrial sector. In fact, at 10% of GDP, our industrial sector is similar in size to that of France or the USA. It is Germany, with 20%, that is the weirdo in advanced economies so there  )

I think his belief that " a lot of [Britain's] economy is generated by providing banking, insurance, advisory and legal services to external clients" is even stranger than his belief that the UK has no industrial sector. Financial services are a big part of the UK economy (highest in the G-7 at 8.1%, with Canada second at 6.7% - numbers from end of 2014), but 8% isn't all to external clients and even if it were, 8% isn't "a lot of" the UK's economy.

[grumbler]

Apparently BoJo will be pushing for the UK to leave the EU.

He is an idiot after all.

Irony isn't just the opposite of wrinkly.

[Martinus]

(Incidentally, I see that marti is persisting in his strange belief that the UK does not have an industrial sector. In fact, at 10% of GDP, our industrial sector is similar in size to that of France or the USA. It is Germany, with 20%, that is the weirdo in advanced economies so there  )

I think his belief that " a lot of [Britain's] economy is generated by providing banking, insurance, advisory and legal services to external clients" is even stranger than his belief that the UK has no industrial sector. Financial services are a big part of the UK economy (highest in the G-7 at 8.1%, with Canada second at 6.7% - numbers from end of 2014), but 8% isn't all to external clients and even if it were, 8% isn't "a lot of" the UK's economy.

This is just financial services.

However, the fact that London is the financial centre for the EU brings other types of business there as well - legal services, accounting, menial services for the well paid financial elite and oligarchs who move there attracted by the status of London, arts, international education, hotels, business travel etc.

[Zanza]

Is there any kind of timeline in case Britain votes to leave? I guess it wouldn't be effective immediately.

If Boris Johnson for example says he wants a "better deal", is there any kind of idea how to get such a deal?

[Richard Hakluyt]

There is a provision for a state leaving, at least two years are available for the two parties to agree the terms of the exit etc :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_the_European_Union

[MadImmortalMan]

Before the recession (and its spending cuts), our public health care system was better than the NHS. It was one of the best in the world, actually. It's still pretty good despite the cuts.

"Health care tourism" from eastern Europe and such was used by right wing scaremongers to limit access to health care to foreigners (including EU nationals) during the recession too.

I was under the impression you guys had a sort of cross-charging system, so that the user's home state would pay for care in a different part of the union.

[Zanza]

There is a provision for a state leaving, at least two years are available for the two parties to agree the terms of the exit etc :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_the_European_Union

That timeframe doesn't matter anyway as it can be extended indefinitely. I was more interested in what the "Vote Leave" faction has in mind. Did they already outline what the "better deal" consists of and how to get there?