Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Oexmelin]

What's the bit from Yes Minister? Something like « They simply want to make sure he's truly [politically] dead. »

[Josquius]

Curiously I hear some MPs are actually pushing what I suggested ages ago as a "not going to happen but makes a certain sense" suggestion - Keir Starmer as foreign minster.

He'd do the job well though there are probably political optics problems for Burnham.

[Sheilbh]

It's Labour sentimentality. They've shot Old Yeller and now feel bad about it.

Also from all of the reports about Starmer being absolutely furious, feeling personally betrayed and very frosty meetings with Burnham (including a big fight with the civil service to allow Starmer to announce the DIP without fully briefing Burnham) I'm not sure he'd particularly want it. Again I think the "decent man, bad PM" isn't true at all - I think the sheer amount of churn underneath him of people fired because he's blamed them for his mistakes/incuriousity (see Olly Robins now taking the government to the employment tribunal) is who he is. I don't think he's an Alec Douglas-Home who could swallow his ego (if he even had one ) to become a pretty decent Foreign Secretary.

Separately on the FCDO - via Popbitch (I think the duck question is valid - it can be quite difficult to find that sort of info and I've looked for it in the past and found conflicting things on different government sites. Others....less so):

Politics Global
@PolitlcsGlobal
🚨🇬🇧 NEW: The Foreign Office has revealed some of the most unusual requests for consular assistance made by British citizens abroad

🇮🇹 A caller in Italy asked where they could watch the Scotland v Haiti group game in Milan

🇯🇴 A tourist in Jordan asked whether the embassy knew where they could get blonde highlights

🇫🇷 In Paris, one caller asked how much duck pâté they could bring back to the UK, while another wanted the embassy's help finding where they had parked their car near the Eiffel Tower

🇬🇪 A British citizen in Georgia asked whether their two pets could be granted British citizenship to guarantee them diplomatic protection

🇪🇬 A holidaymaker in Egypt asked the embassy to intervene over the temperature of the showers at their hotel

🇳🇬 A tourist in Nigeria asked the embassy to help secure a refund for an unsatisfactory meal at a restaurant in Abuja

🇬🇧 Another Brit contacted the FCDO's consular service to ask how they could get in touch with their postman while they were away on holiday

[The Minsky Moment]

I take an opposite view...I think some activists should try to virally push his candidacy on the Count's behalf, and the other major parties should not-so-subtly support it. 

His material writes itself: "Don't throw away your vote. Toss it in the Bin"  "Finally a honest politician who admits he's rubbish"  etc.

[Tonitrus]

It's Labour sentimentality. They've shot Old Yeller and now feel bad about it.

Also from all of the reports about Starmer being absolutely furious, feeling personally betrayed and very frosty meetings with Burnham (including a big fight with the civil service to allow Starmer to announce the DIP without fully briefing Burnham) I'm not sure he'd particularly want it. Again I think the "decent man, bad PM" isn't true at all - I think the sheer amount of churn underneath him of people fired because he's blamed them for his mistakes/incuriousity (see Olly Robins now taking the government to the employment tribunal) is who he is. I don't think he's an Alec Douglas-Home who could swallow his ego (if he even had one ) to become a pretty decent Foreign Secretary.

If it were the old days, he'd probably be sent on a crusade or something...or offered a posting in India...or the EU.

[Sheilbh]

He apparently wants to be next NATO Secreary-General

As I've said before - he thinks he's been a good PM. I think he still doesn't get how and why and that he has failed - or how much he's really annoyed quite a lot of our allies (especially the Nordics, Baltics, Poles) who wanted us to do more, while I think he's been held in better regard with allies who like people who have good manners and enjoy a meeting.

In fairness I wouldn't be surprised if he has that post-premiership rehabiliation which tends to happen for our failed PMs. You can already see it with Sunak and May especially, it's happened with Brown and Major and I think he'll fall into that bucket of dreadful PMs who were not up to the job that Brits look back on fondly

[crazy canuck]

He apparently wants to be next NATO Secreary-General

As I've said before - he thinks he's been a good PM. I think he still doesn't get how and why and that he has failed - or how much he's really annoyed quite a lot of our allies (especially the Nordics, Baltics, Poles) who wanted us to do more, while I think he's been held in better regard with allies who like people who have good manners and enjoy a meeting.

In fairness I wouldn't be surprised if he has that post-premiership rehabiliation which tends to happen for our failed PMs. You can already see it with Sunak and May especially, it's happened with Brown and Major and I think he'll fall into that bucket of dreadful PMs who were not up to the job that Brits look back on fondly

Oh my God, the Quisling to the United States wants to be the head of NATO. Don't think so

[Sheilbh]

I am starting to get concerned about Burnham. I know I've said in the past that I think he's a bit like Labour's Boris Johnson in a complimentary way (and interesting that both really built their brands outside Westminster, in big city mayoralties) - and it may just be an inevitability of a long transition like this. And I've liked Burnham for basically as long as I've followed politics so cannot be relied on.

But the sheer volume of briefing and counter-briefing from people around Burnham about cabinet positions and the fact that a lot of them seem to point in fairly different directions etc has me a little bit worried. Of recent PMs I'm now starting to see ominous echoes of Theresa May too

Meanwhile this is just one poll but it is basically the trend too. The Greens have basically fallen back since the Golder Green attack and Polanski's response (his personal ratings also collapsed) but Reform having plateaued are trending down while Labour are up, the Tories are stabilising and starting to show signs of life and the Lib Dems continue to cling on to a pointless, futile existence.


And on personal ratings, this was the day before the Argentina game so I suspect Tuchel's rating has changed but I think this tells broadly that story:


Edit: On the other hand good thing about having a PM from the North-West is the music will be better as he was unveiled to True Faith by New Order. Looking forward to the Heaven Knows I'm Miserable Now edit from his first meeting with Trump.

I think Burnham is to the right of Starmer but has left-er vibes and in all honesty I actually suspect the first Trump meeting willl be a bit like the Mamdani meeting - because e might be in Trump's words "very liberal" but he's more handsome than Starmer, got a bit of charisma and good at TV.

[garbon]

I can imagine saying many things about Burnham* but if were ever to say he is 'more handsome than Starmer' I would be damning with faint praise.

*As I currently don't feel like I have a handle on him

[Sheilbh]

True. On the scale he's not Mamdani - but he's a lot more telegenic let's say than Starmer. And Trump loves that in a man. His catnip is someone who went to an Ivy and has made-for-TV star levels of handsomeness.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Well at least Reform is on the downtrend.

I can't help feeling that we won't be out of the mire until we get some really very good leadership though. Which, sadly, I don't see coming from Burnham or any of his opponents.

[crazy canuck]

Based on what I read in the global and mail. It seems that nobody really has an idea of what he will do when he takes office on Monday beyond platitudes about letting local governments have more power.

If his only big idea is decentralization, and I'm not sure this is going to work. Hopefully he has other big ideas.

[Sheilbh]

Well at least Reform is on the downtrend.

I can't help feeling that we won't be out of the mire until we get some really very good leadership though. Which, sadly, I don't see coming from Burnham or any of his opponents.

Maybe. I like Burnham but the reasons he was previously been rejected twice by Labour and the criticism of him over the years is well-earned and deserved.

But I also think him and Johnson are the only recent ones I think who have anything close to the verve, opportunism and political imagination to actually coalesce a new consensus/coalition following/in response to the disorder and the politics its producing. And frankly I think some of those flaws and experiences that are justifiably criticised are also the source of his strengths and effectiveness as a politician (always the way). As I say, I like Burnham, I basially agree with his analysis and conclusions - but I think he's got a very narrow path - which sort of goes to the early election argument because, as I've said I think Badenoch is growing into her role (I can also see her having a bit of a Cleggmania moment in TV debates) and I think this might be the moment of maximum division/chaos on the right. The longer the parliament goes on I think the more likely it is the Tories re-assert their hegemony on the right (never write off one of the democratic world's most successful political parties - they're Michael Myers).

My slight fear is that I think the conditions of this moment favour the right - or they require/force choices and issues that the right is more comfortable talking about than the left (or those conditions are producing a politics that favours that) in much the same way as the 90s, I think had conditions that were particularly favourable to (or taht produced) that form of centre-left politics. As ever I think the real tragedy is Europe's massive missed opportunities in the 2010s - when we had the economic conditions for investment, increasing productive power, growing state control but opted for austerity and ordoliberalism and "internal devaluation" instead.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I hope for the best you know 

At a personal level I prefer Burnham to all the other choices. But the starting situation is so bad, compare with Blair's inheritance in 1997. Having said that the British economy is by no means the basketcase that so many people like to imagine, with adroit handling I can see lots of scope for improvement, at least we are no longer wedded to out-of-date industries like Germany.

[HVC]

True. On the scale he's not Mamdani - but he's a lot more telegenic let's say than Starmer. And Trump loves that in a man. His catnip is someone who went to an Ivy and has made-for-TV star levels of handsomeness.

Unless you're too pretty and his wife and daughter get a crush. See Trudeau.