Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[crazy canuck]

Have you paid much attention to the types of politicians who run in your primaries?

We have plenty of unserious clowns in our minor third parties but unlike the UK's unserious clowns they pretend to be serious and are not even fun.

True

[Tonitrus]

This image makes one wonder how one could take UK elections seriously, but...I live in America. 

Have you paid much attention to the types of politicians who run in your primaries?

More than the attention you paid to my post, which already factored that in. 

[Sheilbh]

By the by on the Starmer arson attacks - sentenced to four years.

I think this should be a bigger story, but also to be honest that feels low for people recruited by a hostile intelligence agency to firebomb the head of government's private home and homes of his family members. I get they are very much just useful idiots but still...

[mongers]

By the by on the Starmer arson attacks - sentenced to four years.

I think this should be a bigger story, but also to be honest that feels low for people recruited by a hostile intelligence agency to firebomb the head of government's private home and homes of his family members. I get they are very much just useful idiots but still...

I don't have a problem with 4 years, just so long as they're deported to Russia afterwards. 

[Richard Hakluyt]

Sentencing seems to getting a bit arbitrary to me.

The recent sentences handed to the rioters for example. 4 years or so for two mature criminals with long records of criminal activity; but also 4 years or so for a couple of 21/22 year olds with no criminal record. I'm sure those lads behaved pretty badly but they may have just got carried away; perhaps a good scare and some community sentencing might have got them back on the right path?

[Josquius]

By the by on the Starmer arson attacks - sentenced to four years.

I think this should be a bigger story, but also to be honest that feels low for people recruited by a hostile intelligence agency to firebomb the head of government's private home and homes of his family members. I get they are very much just useful idiots but still...

I don't have a problem with 4 years, just so long as they're deported to Russia afterwards. 

Unless the Ukrainian army wants them sooner?

[PJL]

This image makes one wonder how one could take UK elections seriously, but...I live in America. 

There's a nice little BBC article about why people dress up for elections: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9g3g28en1o

Personally, I think it's a good thing and makes things more lighthearted at election time.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

No Adder-party though. Surely the people deserve free turnips

[Sheilbh]

Looks like Starmer to announce his resignation (or timetable for it) this week. Going to leave with some dignity at least - after briefings last week that were "where is Steiner?" level deluded. Multiple cabinet ministers told him he needed to go as well as over 100 MPs saying it was time with the expectation that if he didn't, the resignations would start.

Also seems like Burnham will get a coronation which I'm not sure is a great idea (I think a contest would be helpful and healthy).

[Tonitrus]

Do you think a "coronation" would make him calling a general election more likely, or less?

[PJL]

Looks like Starmer to announce his resignation (or timetable for it) this week. Going to leave with some dignity at least - after briefings last week that were "where is Steiner?" level deluded. Multiple cabinet ministers told him he needed to go as well as over 100 MPs saying it was time with the expectation that if he didn't, the resignations would start.

Also seems like Burnham will get a coronation which I'm not sure is a great idea (I think a contest would be helpful and healthy).

Well there was a long and detailed leadership contest a few years ago under the Tories when Boris Johnson was PM. The end result was that we got Liz Truss. So much for that being a good way to get a new leader midterm.

On the other hand, you could argue that the Makerfield election itself was the leadership contest, and arguably a better one than with just Labour and trade union members. Had Burnham won with fewer than the combined Reform/Restore votes, an argument could have been made that he had only united the left in the election, thus paving the way for a contested election with Burnham, Streeting, and maybe some others. But the fact that Burnham won with over 50% of the vote not only proved he could unite the left, but also suppress the right with his record as Manchester Mayor and his style of leadership means a coronation as PM for him is more justified.

[Sheilbh]

Well there was a long and detailed leadership contest a few years ago under the Tories when Boris Johnson was PM. The end result was that we got Liz Truss. So much for that being a good way to get a new leader midterm.

On the other hand, you could argue that the Makerfield election itself was the leadership contest, and arguably a better one than with just Labour and trade union members. Had Burnham won with fewer than the combined Reform/Restore votes, an argument could have been made that he had only united the left in the election, thus paving the way for a contested election with Burnham, Streeting, and maybe some others. But the fact that Burnham won with over 50% of the vote not only proved he could unite the left, but also suppress the right with his record as Manchester Mayor and his style of leadership means a coronation as PM for him is more justified.

Yeah - and Jeremy Corbyn twice (though not in office). Worth noting that the preferences of the membership in opinion polls was for a choice of Kemi Badenoch and Penny Mordaunt. They were presented with Sunak or Truss - obviously in Labour MPs don't whittle down leadership candidates so anyone who got the nominations would go to the membership. On the other hand I'm not sure Gordon Brown stifiling all dissent in his ascent to the leadership helped Labour (and I think it is a bit more of a Labour thing - the reason there have been so many aborted leadership challenges in Labour is the sense that they need to find a single candidate or it's too unpredictable).

My view in general is that involving the membership makes sense in opposition. In office, I think it should just be MPs who make the choice because the key factor for the PM is that they command the support of their parliamentary party. I generally think a leadership election would be advisable simply because Burnham's national pitch hasn't really been examined - which is a recurring problem. I don't really know that we can say his national pitch can be the same as a constituency in Greater Manchester.

But also from what I've read the preference for Burnham is a coronation but there is a sense that he's not ready and needs to clarify some ideas and build a team around him and the preference for Starmer is to go in a few months (possibly with a handover at party conference). I think a leadership election for a few months which gives time for Burnham to build his team and allows Starmer to leave with some dignity is defensible and I think that would be accepted by the public. I'm not sure it will fly with the public if what happens is Starmer remains as PM before a cornation basically because Burnham's not ready to go and Starmer's got some pride. I actually think a long handover without a contest could just blow up all of Burnham's honeymoon period and cause problems for Starmer/the government - I just don't see how it works with every decision Starmer makes being put to Burnham by the press etc. I don't think the nature of our system really allows for a "transition" period - but I think it does kind of allow for a purdah period while there's an election.

Edit: Just really basically I don't think the Labour Party can turn around to the country and say "we've decided to remove Keir Starmer because he's not up to the job and that the guy who is  is Andy Burnham", but then delay it for three months during which Keri Starmer (who the party needs to go) remains PM because of his feelings and Burnham's not ready. If it's a coronation they go now, if they need time then a leadership contest gives that space.

[PJL]

I don't think the Labour Party can turn around to the country and say "we've decided to remove Keir Starmer because he's not up to the job and that the guy who is Andy Burnham", but then delay it for three months during which Keir Starmer (who the party needs to go) remains PM because of his feelings and Burnham's not ready. If it's a coronation, they go now; if they need time, then a leadership contest gives that space.

I agree on this.

[Josquius]

It's partially the americanisation of the UK and the silly belief we vote for prime ministers at play. But lots of "we need a general review election if Burnham is taking over" chatter on social media.
Obviously bollocks.
That's not how the system works.

Though I do wonder whether Burnham should be expected to be beholden to the last manifesto?
In my book no. He should be free to do what is right no matter what was promised in the general election.
Though I know some think different there.

[Sheilbh]

Sentencing seems to getting a bit arbitrary to me.

The recent sentences handed to the rioters for example. 4 years or so for two mature criminals with long records of criminal activity; but also 4 years or so for a couple of 21/22 year olds with no criminal record. I'm sure those lads behaved pretty badly but they may have just got carried away; perhaps a good scare and some community sentencing might have got them back on the right path?

Yeah I agree - and there are sentencing guidelines that are followed with identified mitigants etc. But it feels a little out of sync.

Also as I say - I don't believe in three strikes and your out laws. But I kind of think by the time you're on your 15th conviction there might be an issue. Especially in that case where there's domestic violence - at a certain point someone's just a wrong'un.

In a slightly similar way the Met identified about 100 shoplifters who carried out about 5,000 offences over a two year period and were responsible for a third of shoplifting offences which had a suspect. Recently they've managed to cut phone theft by 40% - this was because owners kept complaining and the Met eventually investigated some phone thefts and discovered they were all being held in the same shipping container in Folkestone (and on their way out the country). They didn't raid that but realised there was a wider network which they pursued and they (successfully) rolled it up. As I say responsible for almost half of all phone thefts in all of London. There's been some recent BBC reporting on the people smugglers on the Channel and vape shops and illegal cigarettes etc - and I think we underestimate the extent to which organised crime (sometimes transnational) is at play. Certainly the case with the phones, the (often cash only) vape shops/barbers, various forms of smuggling etc - but even the shoplifting. In London according to the Met a not insignificant amount of it is organised now.

Edit: And FWIW I don't think it's just us - I've read about organised crime being a real issue in Benelux countries especially as well but I think in other parts of Europe too.