Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tonitrus]

This image makes one wonder how one could take UK elections seriously, but...I live in America. 

[Sheilbh]

Burnham comfortably wins the by-election with a near 10,000 vote majority, perhaps in part due to massive anti-reform  tactical voting which saw the Greens and Lib-Dems together getting less than 500 votes. And Restore UK gobbling up a significant 3,000 voters who might otherwise have gone to Reform UK, may that 20% chomping of the far-right vote continue.

Constituency polling is very difficult but that's a better result for Burnham than any of the polls. To put it in context at the local elections this area went 51% for Reform, with Labour on 25%. In the most recent MRP analysis, Labour were expected to be on about 20% if there was a general election tomorrow.

There's a bit of a squeeze but this area isn't really Lib Dem or Green territory. Since 2015 (so post-coalition) the Lib Dems bob around 1,500-2,000 votes and the Greens around 1,000 (they haven't even been able to stand a candidate in all elections). Both Lib Dems and Greens typically lose their deposit here. So it'll be a factor but not that significant.

The Tories only got some 950 votes, did even some of their traditional voters go with Burnham in order to spoil Reforms chances?

Yes - the polls are pretty consistent on that. Tory voters and Reform voters are quite different and there's a fairly big chunk of Tory voters who would prefer to work with parties to the left than the right.

In this case there is the unique bonus of "ditch Starmer, vote Labour" which will also appeal to a fair chunk of Tory (and, indeed, all voters).

Again struck at just how poor Reform's expectations management is given that they were saying they thought they'd maybe lost by about 2,500. In part I think there's a side of this which is just inexperience/lack of institutional memory compared to the established parties - but also it is a pattern with Reform and I slightly wonder if they're just a bit high on their own supply when the underlying picture looks more challenging than they seem to assume. There is a large anti-Reform vote. Their support has plateaued and been trending down recently. They've had a run of picking duffers as candidates.

Also second highest turnout in a byelection this century.

Also the Tories won in Aberdeen South. They got almost 50% of the vote and a majority of about 6,000 over the SNP who got just under 30%. Labour vote collapsed because of the national picture - but also, I suspect, some unionist tactical voting which is quite common in Scotland now (with the exception of Reform). But a 25% swing in a byelection in Scotland (albeit Aberdeenshire) and the first byelection victory for the Scottish Tories in 60 years is something they'll be happy about.

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry a bi less interesting - SNP held with a small 5% swing. the big story here is Labour collapsing from second to fourth (behind Reform who are up to second, and the Tories).

I've said before - and this might change now - but I think a broad anti-Reform coalition winning and the Tories doing better than expected and winning the fight on the right are underpriced in my view.

[Sheilbh]

This image makes one wonder how one could take UK elections seriously, but...I live in America. 

I think it's one of the better features of our elections. It's pretty easy to get on the ballot. Everyone, from the Prime Minister down, has to gather in a sports hall or community centre of council workers who've counted the votes and party activists. The future PM or cabinet minister is at the same level as the crank or the eccentric or Count Binface. And winners and losers have to share a stage while the results are announced. I think within those practices are things that are positive a democratic culture.

[HVC]

I've already said if it wasn't for trump the uk would be the one the world would be laughing at

[Valmy]

And if Burnham wins - which is very much an if

He crushed by over 20% 

Was it actually expected to be close?

[Sheilbh]

He crushed by over 20% 

Was it actually expected to be close?

It was in Reform's top 25 target seats for the next election. At the local elections last month, Reform won over 50% of the vote in this area. On the latest MRP, Labour were on 20%.

When it was clear this would be the seat Burnham could run in I think a lot of London reporters were very doubtful as it would be a very big ask. I thought he would because he has a very strong personal vote and has been a good mayor. But it is better than I expected. Without Burnham this would have been an open goal for Reform.

I'd add that Reform now have a habit of underperforming (in some cases even while winning). Whenever the stakes are high they underperform to the polls: Caerphilly, Gorton, Hamilton, the Senedd, Runcorn and now here. Partly the anti-Reform tactical vote, but also bad candidates and I think wider issues. They really need to do a post-mortem.

[Richard Hakluyt]

A bit of good news there, at least in by-elections there does seem to be an anti-Reform coalition in effect.

A pity Count Binface, "Rubbish policies for a Rubbish Britain", only got 95 votes; but there it is.

If I could sit down and have a pint with Burnham I would advise him - be bold and be decisive. You may as as well be hung for a sheep as a microbe; which is what would have happened under Starmer; and, who knows, perhaps bold government will attract support.