Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[garbon]

Fair, but it doesn't have to be. Especially as it'll require more mainstream use once Scottish and Welsh 50%+1 referendums will disband the UK.

It doesn't have to be, but I'd also argue that when around pubs, estates and white people rocking English flags, it is prudent for me to be on guard.

[Tamas]

Fair, but it doesn't have to be. Especially as it'll require more mainstream use once Scottish and Welsh 50%+1 referendums will disband the UK.

It doesn't have to be, but I'd also argue that when around pubs, estates and white people rocking English flags, it is prudent for me to be on guard.

I won't disagree on that.

[Josquius]

It's one of those things.
It's not racist... Which is why the racists use it. It let's them hide behind victimhood.
But they use that particular one so much that it's rare you get a non racist flying one even at football time.

[Sheilbh]

Latest polling on the new left-wing party. There's no polling because it's impossible but lots of reports that the Greens are thinking it's increasingly likely that Polanski will win:

Exclusive poll: Labour voters are rallying to Jeremy Corbyn
Nearly half of Labour voters would back a left-Green alliance.
By Rachel Cunliffe

The new left-wing party in the process of being launched by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana might lack a name, a leader and a policy platform beyond tackling "the crises in our society with a mass redistribution of wealth and power" and "campaigning for the only path to peace: a free and independent Palestine". What it doesn't lack is potential supporters.

New polling by Ipsos, seen exclusively by the New Statesman, finds that one in three people who voted Labour in 2024 would consider voting for the new Corbyn-Sultana initiative. That figure rises to nearly half (46 per cent) among 2024 Labour voters who would consider voting for an alliance between this new party and the Greens.

The new outfit says that more than 700,000 people have already signed up on the "Your Party" website to register their support. For context, Reform UK made national headlines by claiming to have surpassed the Conservatives' membership numbers by hitting 130,000 members last December. Of course, registering for Your Party is free, while there are fees for becoming actual members of political parties (£25 a year for Reform, £39 for the Conservatives, and £70.50 for Labour at the standard rate). But the scale of interest in the new venture is striking, even when virtually nothing is known about it six weeks after Sultana dramatically announced she was quitting Labour to set up some kind of alternative.

The potential for a left-wing option for those dismayed by the direction Keir Starmer's government has taken in its first year has long been discussed. In June, before Sultana's announcement, George Eaton reported on new polling from More in Common which suggested a "new Corbyn-led party" would win 10 per cent of the vote. Nearly two months later, Ipsos finds that has doubled: 20 per cent of voters consider themselves very or fairly likely to back the Corbyn-Sultana offering, rising to 33 per cent among voters aged 16-34. (A reminder: under government plans the voting age will be lowered to 16 at the next general election.)

The biggest unknown – other than the party's to-be-determined name – is how it interacts with the Green Party. The Greens are spending the summer engaged in a furious leadership contest, with MP duo Ellie Chowns and Adrian Ramsay facing off against the "eco-populist" London Assembly member, Zack Polanski. (If you missed the debate between Polanski and Ramsay on the New Statesman podcast, check it out and watch the sparks fly.) As Megan Kenyon pointed out for the NS, Polanski has argued that "the Greens should occupy a more progressive, populist space on the left in order to confront the infectious populism of Nigel Farage's Reform. He has called for a wealth tax, a better approach to net zero and a more robust left-wing position on immigration." In vibe terms, that is very similar to what's being offered by Corbyn and Sultana. Is there space on the left of British politics for two rival populist parties?

Most pollsters and strategists are sceptical, which is why there has been so much talk of some kind of pact or alliance – informal or otherwise – between the two to avoid splitting the vote. The Ipsos polling finds that, while the public on the whole is unsure on the merits of a pact, there is widespread support among people planning to vote for either option: 70 per cent of people who say they would vote for the new left-wing party (it really needs to decide on a name, if only for the sake of word counts) would back an alliance, as would 60 per cent of Green Party supporters.

This isn't surprising: an alliance is the best way of avoiding the left-wing vote being split and wasting a whole load of votes. But given how antagonistic the Green leadership contest has already become, plus how much debate and confusion there is over who will lead the new left-wing party, negotiations for how such a pact might work are unlikely to be smooth. Insurgent populism works best when there is a single big-name, charismatic leader (just ask Nigel Farage).

Nonetheless, almost a third of Brits – 31 per cent – would consider voting for a united ticket. That rises to 51 per cent for voters aged 16-34.

"These figures show that a new left-wing party led by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana has the potential to shake up British politics," says Keiran Pedley, director of politics at Ipsos. "A significant number of younger people are at least prepared to consider voting for it and a majority of those aged under 35 say they would consider voting for some kind of alliance between the new party and the Greens. Clear policies around change, the NHS, poverty and wealth taxes could be popular."

That should sharpen focus in Downing Street: however chaotic the launch may have been, and whatever the fate of the last group of high-profile MPs who decided to start their own initiative (farewell, the Independent Group), the appetite for a challenger to the left of Labour is real.

Separately I think Starmer now has record low approval ratings (-55% or so).

A lot of moderate Labour people and commentators chuckled at the chaotic party launch, but I think they're really underestimating the threat. At the current rate I wouldn't be surprised if both the Tories and Labour are on under 20% in the next election. I've said before, but I really think Reeves and Starmer need to go. (Primarily because I think Reeves needs to go for a reset on economic policy but if she goes there's no way Starmer can survive).

Also I think for voters under-35 if this polling holds up you'd end up with Reform and a Corbyn/Sultana/Green pact collectively winning about 80%+ of the vote (Labour is lowering the voting age to 16). I'm not sure that is the future two main parties. But I wouldn't necessarily be surprised.

And having said all that in much the same way as Reform is facing the challenge of professionalising, moving beyond Farage (you need a team) and problems of actually running councils now - the same old challenges are already surfacing in the Your Party. It's stunning to see a group of left-wing splitters now beset by splits, but I think I've seen three rounds of factional in-fighting and anonymous briefings. Latest was, I think, allegations of a "coup" within the working group setting up the founding conference. All of this is possibly internal score settling but talk of a "LOTO Faction" (leader of the opposition) of basically lots of people who worked closely with Corbyn as Labour leader (I'm assuming this is code for Seumas Milne and possibly Andrew Murray). Many of them have backgrounds in the Trotskyist left and some were CPGB members - inevitably it sounds like they're looking for a fairly top-down party that would be relatively controlled by the leadership bureaucratically (basically sounds a little democratic centralist). The other faction is from more of the social movement wing of the left who kind of want it to be very open and democratic (possibly to the point of incoherence).

Fascinatingly - a bit like the Nationalist International of the far and radical right - these factions seem to have international support bases. For example the more "social movement" wing seem very aligned with the Progressive International (which is especially associated with a lot of the Latin American left) and have had their articles shared by, for example, Pablo Iglesias, while I think Melenchon seems more sympathetic to the leadership.

[Neil]

What is a 'more robust left-wing position on immigration'? 

At any rate, looks like it's Tory Time again. 

[Admiral Yi]

i was wondering that, and also how you redistribute power.

[Tonitrus]

How far off is a possible Labour leadership/PM revolt, or is Starmer going to run the ship into the rocks/holding out for a miracle (or at least a hope for better days over the next ~4 years)?

[Josquius]

What is a 'more robust left-wing position on immigration'? 

At any rate, looks like it's Tory Time again. 

I've seen this guys ads about that  and it makes sense (though some of his other views... Less so) .
He pointed out how the boats thing is all spin and it's really not the most important issue in the world at all but the media has blown up immigration into this big 100% negative toxic issue.
He criticises the centre left for just falling into lockstep behind the far right view but watering it down a little, which doesnt help anyone.
Basically it's reframing the issue into a more realistic one and not the crap we have had forced down our throat for the past 50 years.

How succesful this would be given we have had 50 years of anti immigrant drum beating and in dire economic times especially people love a scape goat.... I'm not confident.
But it is nice to see someone saying what everyone else is afraid to say.

As to tory time.... We should be so lucky. Corruption city here we come. I've been getting involved with reforms consultations in Durham and if they run the country anything like this we are absolutely fucked.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

What is a 'more robust left-wing position on immigration'? 

At any rate, looks like it's Tory Time again. 

Probably letting in 4 million people instead of just 1.

[Gups]

I've seen this guys ads about that  and it makes sense (though some of his other views... Less so) .
He pointed out how the boats thing is all spin and it's really not the most important issue in the world at all but the media has blown up immigration into this big 100% negative toxic issue.

It may not be the biggest issue in the world but it's still a very important one. People rightly expect a country to be able to control its borders. Not to mention that deaths from small boats are substantial.

Absolutely classic approach of blaming the media because the vast majority of people disagree with you. Been hearing that all my life, it's pretty pathetic really. Even more so now that the press is so much less relevant than it was.

[Josquius]

I've seen this guys ads about that  and it makes sense (though some of his other views... Less so) .
He pointed out how the boats thing is all spin and it's really not the most important issue in the world at all but the media has blown up immigration into this big 100% negative toxic issue.

It may not be the biggest issue in the world but it's still a very important one. People rightly expect a country to be able to control its borders. Not to mention that deaths from small boats are substantial.

Its really not.
It sucks. It needs handling. It is terrible that people are dying. But the numbers really aren't all that compared to so many other issues in the country. It gets way too much attention for how big of an issue it actually is.
Expecting to control borders to such a level is dumb. Alas really taps into the invasion analogies they like to weave.

Absolutely classic approach of blaming the media because the vast majority of people disagree with you. Been hearing that all my life, it's pretty pathetic really. Even more so now that the press is so much less relevant than it was.

Yeah...the media hasn't been banging on about immigration as the most important thing in the world for the past 50 years despite until recent years polling consistently showing it wasn't a key issue....Sure....

[Admiral Yi]

From the Green Party web site.  Sure does sound like everyone is welcome.

"Refugee and Asylum Policy

This policy was agreed at conference in October 2021.
The Green Party seeks not only to provide asylum to those forced from their homes but to work towards a world in which no one has to flee their home. This policy sets out a fair and humane system of asylum and protection.
Read the policy in full
Migration Policy

This policy was agreed at conference in Spring 2023.
The Green Party wants to see a world without borders, until this happens the Green
Party will implement a fair and humane system of managed immigration where people can
move if they wish to do so."

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Expecting to control borders to such a level is dumb.

that carries zero weight since corona. We've seen that states are clearly capable of closing down their border if they want to. The citizenry has seen it too.

[Josquius]

Expecting to control borders to such a level is dumb.

that carries zero weight since corona. We've seen that states are clearly capable of closing down their border if they want to. The citizenry has seen it too.

Aye?
Migrant Channel crossings by boat surge during pandemic, concern over illegal returns by UK - InfoMigrants https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/24920/migrant-channel-crossings-by-boat-surge-during-pandemic-concern-over-illegal-returns-by-uk

I don't believe it's impossible. The world wars are a better example than covid. But having hyper militarised borders is rather overkill for the scale of this issue. Terrible for quality of life and the economy.

[Tamas]

I am sorry but this feels ridiculous: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/aug/21/woman-with-adhd-who-slept-in-sauna-on-team-building-trip-wins-uk-case