Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

That's wild, I appreciate our British cousins becoming as dysfunctional as we are.

Although arguably the opposite dysfunction. They're not struggling to get rid of failing/embarrassinng leaders here.

[Josquius]

What a lovely birthday present. Thanks to whoever set this up

[Tamas]

 

[Valmy]

Statement in five minutes. I, for one, welcome our new Lettuce Prime Minister.

Edit: And she'll be the shortest-lived PM by quite some distance:

At least George Canning had the excuse of dying.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I certainly had not followed Truss's career prior to all this, but I have to say I'm very surprised. While the conservatives obviously have had a growing populist wing the last decade, I always thought it was just such a core foundational aspect of being a Tory that you try to uphold a cooperative relationship with the markets and generally try to promote their brand of pro-business policies.

During the leadership election, she obviously promised economic policies that on the whole were clearly not viable. My assumption, and I am guessing the assumption of most, is that was just politician speak to win the leadership election, but once in office she would defer to more mainstream economic thought after pushing to get a few token policies pushed forward. It was startling that she instead pushed for an extremist plan, with no consultation with the Bank of England etc, just showed a recklessness to economic orthodoxy I would not have expected from her party.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Surprisingly given the differences in systems, the shortest tenured PM still had a longer term than the shortest tenured American President. Guess when you die 31 days into office that is a record that is hard to beat.

[Tamas]

[mongers]

A National Embarrassment

[Tamas]

A Hungarian commenter wrote "They [Brits] are the Italians of Europe" 

[Sheilbh]

I certainly had not followed Truss's career prior to all this, but I have to say I'm very surprised. While the conservatives obviously have had a growing populist wing the last decade, I always thought it was just such a core foundational aspect of being a Tory that you try to uphold a cooperative relationship with the markets and generally try to promote their brand of pro-business policies.

During the leadership election, she obviously promised economic policies that on the whole were clearly not viable. My assumption, and I am guessing the assumption of most, is that was just politician speak to win the leadership election, but once in office she would defer to more mainstream economic thought after pushing to get a few token policies pushed forward. It was startling that she instead pushed for an extremist plan, with no consultation with the Bank of England etc, just showed a recklessness to economic orthodoxy I would not have expected from her party.

A lot of her advisers are from the conservative think tanks like the Institute of Economic Affairs - and people from Cato in the US. I suspect they genuinely just thought what they announced was "pro-markets" and there's no way markets would be unhappy with it. I don't think this was like Johnson ("fuck business") - I think they genuinely thought - echoed by the libertarian think tanks - that all of this was pro-business and pro-markets and there'd be much rejoicing in the City.

Problem is they hadn't put in the work to plan for it, there hadn't been consultation which you need, they fired the Permanent Secretary (top civil servant) at the Treasury, they were announcing £45 billion of tax cuts plus an uncapped energy price cap for two years. All in an emergency budget which together I think just destroyed their credibility - it looked chaotic and the first response was to double down. That might work in politics, but it doesn't with the markets.

There were gestures at good things that would help growth - further liberalisation of immigration rules, planning reform and making it easier to build infrastructure. Those are genuine supply side reforms that the UK needs, in my view - but again it's linked to that credibility which they shafted. It's also stuff in one form or other has been talked about, proposed or planned by other Tory PMs only to be blocked by Tory MPs with furious constituents (the real anti-growth coalition). So they're going to get the massive financial hit but the corresponding structural reforms were, frankly, a promise on the never-never.

It really is a fiscal/financial Suez as Miinsky says.

A Hungarian commenter wrote "They [Brits] are the Italians of Europe" 

An Italian colleague is enjoying this greatly - "listen. Are you trying to out-Italy Italy?"

[crazy canuck]

Long live the lettuce!

My full support is pledged to Larry the cat.  I will see you on the battlefield sir!

[Valmy]

and people from Cato in the US.

Ah yes. There are people who should be listened to.

I am just imagining somebody in the UK looking over at the toxic right wing over in the US and thinking 'Yes...yes...we should do this. These are clearly the people who know how to run a conservative political machine.'

[Sheilbh]

I am just imagining somebody in the UK looking over at the toxic right wing over in the US and thinking 'Yes...yes...we should do this. These are clearly the people who know how to run a conservative political machine.'

Fair but I didn't think Cato were that Trumpy? I thought they were just very, very libertarian.

Johnson is apparently "taking soundings" and expected to run - he's currently on holiday in the Dominican Republic and I imagine desperately trying to get a flight back. As with Forza Italia other MPs already saying they'd defect if Johnson came back as PM - it would quite possibly split the party.

I've seen two MPs backing him. Mordaunt and James Cleverly also "taking soundings". Jeremy Hunt has ruled himself out and apparently wants to stay as Chancellor whoever wins.

[Valmy]

Fair but I didn't think Cato were that Trumpy? I thought they were just very, very libertarian.

They aren't. But the fact that the conservative party over here got hijacked by populists kinds of shows what a bad idea actually trying to implement libertarian policies is...or at least the way the Cato institute and company want to.

[Richard Hakluyt]

My hopes are high that in a few years I will be reading the excellent new book (and future classic) The Strange Death of Tory England