Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Based on the comments from international and UK-based data journalists during the pandemic I think the ONS is a bit of a national treasure and very good at what they do.

[crazy canuck]

Do (did) cops even investigate muggings under normal circumstances? Don't think that's a met thing. Seems like petty crime is ignored unless you're caught in the act


My impression is that it's not investigated in Canada. I'd ask BB but I think berkuts stalking drove him away.

Well here at least it is.  Just one random example https://bc.ctvnews.ca/man-kicked-open-library-bathroom-stall-door-stole-senior-s-laptop-vancouver-police-1.5753967

[Tamas]

Rees-Mogg gonna' reesmogg:

Rees-Mogg accuses MP questioning PM's Afghan dog rescue denials of 'fussing about a few animals'
In the Commons Chris Bryant, the Labour MP and member of the foreign affairs committee, asked Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the house, about the new email evidence that was published yesterday suggesting that Boris Johnson was lying when he said he was not involved in the decision to authorise the rescue of dogs and cats from Afghanistan last summer as part of the humanitarian airlift.

In response, Rees-Mogg did not addresss the disrepancy between the email evidence and the No 10 claims at all. Instead he just criticised Bryant for "fussing about a few animals". He said

Under Operation Pitting (the Kabul evacuation) our armed forces and civil service worked around the clock to evacuate 15,000 people, including around 8,300 British nationals and 5,000 people through the Afghan relocations policy.

This was an incredibly successful and pressurised operation and our armed forces once again, showed what amazing things they can do when called upon to do it.

And [Bryant] is fussing about a few animals. I think it shows the level of seriousness which he characteristically brings to today's debate.

[Josquius]

I love the ambiguity of how when he says "fussing about a few animals" he means the dogs that were saved or the afghan civilians who weren't.

[Tamas]

I love the ambiguity of how when he says "fussing about a few animals" he means the dogs that were saved or the afghan civilians who weren't.

Indeed, with him, it's anyone's guess.

[Richard Hakluyt]

It will be inteersting to see if Johnson carries on lying during the police investigation. If he admits that he went to some parties/boozeups then he will kust get a ticket and a paltry fine or two. That would not be good politically of course. But if he lies and is caught out then the far more serious charge of conspiring to pervert the course of justice may be made.

This is what happened with Chris Huhne (a former cabinet minister) a few years back, all over a speeding ticket.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21737627

[Tamas]

It will be inteersting to see if Johnson carries on lying during the police investigation. If he admits that he went to some parties/boozeups then he will kust get a ticket and a paltry fine or two. That would not be good politically of course. But if he lies and is caught out then the far more serious charge of conspiring to pervert the course of justice may be made.

This is what happened with Chris Huhne (a former cabinet minister) a few years back, all over a speeding ticket.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21737627

I don't think his brain has the ability to tell the truth. After building his entire life and career on lying, cheating, and making sh**t up, it must take exceptional effort not to lie by reflex.

[The Larch]

Also very good news on that piece Tyr posted about inflation in essentials - the ONS have got in touch with Jack Monroe and are updating their "basket" for inflation which is really worthwhile. And a great result from that piece:

Jack Monroe
@BootstrapCook
Delighted to be able to tell you that the @ONS have just announced that they are going to be changing the way they collect and report on the cost of food prices and inflation to take into consideration a wider range of income levels and household circumstances #VimesBootsIndex

I hope they keep the "Vimes Boot Index" name, which is a tribute to Terry Pratchett. 

[Sheilbh]

It will be inteersting to see if Johnson carries on lying during the police investigation. If he admits that he went to some parties/boozeups then he will kust get a ticket and a paltry fine or two. That would not be good politically of course. But if he lies and is caught out then the far more serious charge of conspiring to pervert the course of justice may be made.

This is what happened with Chris Huhne (a former cabinet minister) a few years back, all over a speeding ticket.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21737627

If they are investigating eight parties the maximum fine for breach of covid regs I think wasbout £6,500 (unless you contest and get into contempt issues etc) for six breaches. It seems pretty likely that a few people - possibly including Johnson - will get the maximum fine. While it's still low and just fines, I think it'll be reported as people being fined the "maximum amount" which is not a great look - I imagine there's not many people with that many breaches for example.

We've already had day one of what will become a daily bit of reporting now. The PM's spokesman has confirmed he's not been questioned by the police - yet.

But you're right and like Huhne I suspect Johnson's first instinct will be to throw his wife under the bus if only to expedite the inevitable post-Premiership divorce

Separately I think the Afghanistan/Nowzad story is going to get bigger (especially as the mood has shifted on Pen Farthing with the public):

Kate McCann
@KateEMcCann
NEW: Trudy Harrison, PM's PPS, contacted a private charter company on 25 Aug 21 (same date as FCO letter) to secure plane to evacuate animals and staff for Nowzad. A private sponsor funded, but she made clear her role with PM and told staff he was keen to get animals out quickly.
Source at the company said Harrison was keen to get press on the plane to watch animals being evacuated to turn it into a good news story. They added she repeatedly talked about "the boss" and they felt it was obvious her requests came with his backing.
Harrison confirmed to Sky she did contact a number of companies to help "as a constituency MP" (but none of her constituents were directly involved). She admits she did tell staff she was PPS to PM but states Boris Johnson was not involved in any plans around evacuation.
It is notable that her first contact with the charter company, the FCO email (new today) and her letter published weeks ago on same issue all happened on 25 August 21. Dominic Dyer, who worked with Pen Farthing, told Sky PM got involved directly on 25, which unblocked the issues
A No10 spox said: "The PM had no role in authorising individual evacuations from Afghanistan during Op PITTING, including Nowzad staff and animals. At no point did the PM instruct staff to take any particular course of action on Nowzad."
ADD: In our TV piece Dominic Dyer also states Harrison had first contacted the CEO of Virgin Atlantic to arrange a flight. That fell through. She then contacted charter company and talks were detailed over possible options. Eventually another flight was arranged elsewhere.
Charter company source adds that Trudy Harrison offered a staff member a tour of Parliament as a thank you when things didn't work out.

Apparently the Number 10 line is that those emails from the FCDO must have been "mistaken" about their involvement and that it was a frantic time.

[Josquius]

Also very good news on that piece Tyr posted about inflation in essentials - the ONS have got in touch with Jack Monroe and are updating their "basket" for inflation which is really worthwhile. And a great result from that piece:

Jack Monroe
@BootstrapCook
Delighted to be able to tell you that the @ONS have just announced that they are going to be changing the way they collect and report on the cost of food prices and inflation to take into consideration a wider range of income levels and household circumstances #VimesBootsIndex

I hope they keep the "Vimes Boot Index" name, which is a tribute to Terry Pratchett. 

Sounds like they might be:
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/jan/26/terry-pratchett-jack-monroe-vimes-boots-poverty-index


Though less known, I only found out myself a year or two ago, but Pratchett stole the analogy from The Ragged-Trousered Philanthropists

[Sheilbh]

Though less known, I only found out myself a year or two ago, but Pratchett stole the analogy from The Ragged-Trousered Philanthropists

My dad's favourite book

Interesting comparison by Rob Ford (politics professor) of Johnson's current approval rating v previous PMs/Leaders of the Opposition:

Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
A short thread on all time low ratings for each Con and Lab leader in each Parliament covered by the IPSOS-MORI polling database (1977-date), to place Johnson's figures in some context
Con leaders since 77:
Thatcher (O): -13 (Nov 78)
Thatcher (G1): -41 (Dec 81)
Thatcher (G2): -38 (Aug 86)
Thatcher (G3): -56 (Mar 90)
Major (G1): +4 (Feb 92)
Major (G2): -59 (Aug 94)
Hague (O): -37 (Jan 00)
IDS (O): -37 (Feb 03)
Howard (O): -26 (Jan 05)
Cameron (O): -22 (Sep 07)
Cameron (G1): -30 (Mar 13)
Cameron (G2): -38 (Jul 16)
May (G1): -7 (May 17)
May (G2): -44 (Jun 19)
Johnson: -46 (Jan 22)

So in terms of Con leaders over the last 45 years, Johnson's rating this month falls below the lowest rating hit by anyone except Thatcher (post-poll tax) with -56 and Major (post ERM) with -59. He is below the lowest ever ratings for May, Cameron & all Con oppo ldrs 97-2010

Now here are the Lab ldr figures for 1977-date:
Callaghan (G): -31 (Jan 79)
Callaghan (O): -7 (Aug 80)
Foot (O): -56 (Aug 82)
Kinnock (O1): -30 (Mar 87)
Kinnock (O2): -34 (Dec 88)
Smith (O): -8 (May 93)
Blair (O): +7 (Sep 96)
Blair (G1): -31 (Sep 00)
Blair (G2): -34 (Jul 04)
Blair (G3): -43 (Jan 07)
Brown (G): -51 (Jul 08)
Miliband (O): -44 (Apr 13)
Corbyn (O1): -41 (Jul 16)
Corbyn (O2): -60 (Sep 19)
Starmer (O): -20 (Jun 21)

Among Labour leaders, only Foot in middle of SDP split, Brown during depths of financial crisis and Corbyn during crescendo of Brexit crisis have sunk lower than Johnson has fallen so far.

Combining the lists, here's the all time worst ratings for either party's leaders across 45 years of MORI polls:
1.Corbyn (Sep 19): -60
2.Major (Aug 94): -59
3=Thatcher (Mar 90): -56
3= Foot (Aug 82): -56
5. Brown (Jul 08): -51
6. Johnson (Jan 22): -46

Obviously the next election for those other five leaders either didn't happen because they were removed (Thatcher) or were bad (everyone else).

There's still a risk that the Tories don't act and are stuck with Johnson. A bit like with Brown when numerous key figures bottled it so instead of removing him in enough time to give a new leader a chance, they ended up reaching the conclusion that he needed to go but it was too late.

I think the only PM who's been anywhere near these disapproval figures and gone on to win again is Thatcher - but I think holding on in the hope that a fascist junta somewhere will invade a bit of British territory is probably not the best strategy for the Tories.

Edit:
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1486694426537828357?s=20

[Richard Hakluyt]

The met police have asked for " 'minimal reference' to No 10 investigation in Sue Gray report" 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/28/met-asked-for-minimal-reference-to-probe-of-no-10-events-in-sue-gray-report

Which, forgive me if I'm being simple here, means that the report will be about nothing at all 

Is this a genuine concern by the Met about crimes that they are investigating or step one of a cover up operation  ?

[Tamas]

The met police have asked for " 'minimal reference' to No 10 investigation in Sue Gray report" 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/28/met-asked-for-minimal-reference-to-probe-of-no-10-events-in-sue-gray-report

Which, forgive me if I'm being simple here, means that the report will be about nothing at all 

Is this a genuine concern by the Met about crimes that they are investigating or step one of a cover up operation  ?

I guess this means the report won't be published in earnest for months, if Dick is giving Johnson a huge favour. Pricks.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Nominative determinism strikes again 

[Sheilbh]

It seems a bit weird given that they were apparently fine with it all being released earlier in the week.

My understanding of the police involvement is they saw all the stuff in the press and weren't interested in investigating. Sue Gray was doing her report from the Cabinet Office (which is not keen on transparency) and came to the conclusion that she had to pass what she was finding onto the press. They're now investigating eight parties - under the covid rules because they thought it met the threshold for the most serious type of breach.

From the lawyers online there seem to be a few benign explanations on the prejudice the investigation point.

They don't want to reveal this evidence in the public domain to potential suspects because it would give them a chance to destroy other evidence (and given that the police weren't interested in press reports but were by Sue Gray's evidence we already know they've got more than has been reported publicly already). That would especially be the case if the police want to show new evidence to people - see their reaction/test it with other witnesses etc. Another is if they have made arrests or are about to make arrests - in which case contempt of court will kick in. The other obvious one would be that they've found evidence of a more serious crime and don't want to tip their hat. For example the stuff about clearing your phone, or drugs strike me as things you can imagine could come out quite easily and are bigger offences than covid regulations.

Whitewash is already trending and everyone on all sides seems pretty angry at this (especially after the briefings by the Met earlier in the week that they had no objection to the entire report being published). But the Met are dysfunctional organisation so whenever it comes to them and whether it's a cock up or a cover up, my normal assumption is both