Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

Absolutely keep him - otherwise the reward for people who defect is that they won't get anything from it and they'll be dumped at the first opportunity, so why risk it. Previous Tory-Labour defectors ended up in the cabinet, which I think is fine.

Past defectors however have tended to come from the left of the Tory party. I know nothing about this guy but thinking about one of the local MPs who is a similar temporary Tory.... He's not even suitable for the Conservatives never mind Labour.
I don't think it should be an automatic thing to purge them but for sure come election time there should be questions of whether thats who the local party wants running.

I think the left in the UK has a bt of problem because lots of people (myself included) would never vote Tory but won't even try to comprehend someone who would - and almost thinks that only an idiot or a monster could vote Tory. When you need to win those voters that's an issue

Couldn't we just...well...not murder them. Obviously. Not like murder murder them. But just sort of.... swap their pills around a bit or something?

More seriously....I wouldn't be too sure there. We aren't the US. The more Labour tries to appeal to Tory voters the more likely they are to turn off other groups from voting Labour.
Really needs highlighting again and again at the last election that as much as the Tories gaining more votes in a lot of seats was a factor, also a factor was the Lib Dems and Greens absorbing a decent chunk of the Labour vote, and of course the fascists putting their weight behind the Tories giving them a decent 5%+ boost in a lot of seats.

[Sheilbh]

A Tory MP on one we should wait for the Gray report: "even a serial killer gets his day in court." I assume he's trying to be helpful but...

[Sheilbh]

Past defectors however have tended to come from the left of the Tory party. I know nothing about this guy but thinking about one of the local MPs who is a similar temporary Tory.... He's not even suitable for the Conservatives never mind Labour.
I don't think it should be an automatic thing to purge them but for sure come election time there should be questions of whether thats who the local party wants running.

He says he's a centrist and a moderate, but is switching rosette. I don't think right-wing Tories would really ever defect.

Sitting Labour MPs are automatically re-selected for election unless one third of the party branches in their constituency want to open the selection. I don't think those rules should change for defectors.

The defection will probably help keep Johnson safe for now.

Couldn't we just...well...not murder them. Obviously. Not like murder murder them. But just sort of.... swap their pills around a bit or something?

But yeah I do think the "Tories: are they human?" attitude can be an issue in trying to convince people to vote for your side.

More seriously....I wouldn't be too sure there. We aren't the US. The more Labour tries to appeal to Tory voters the more likely they are to turn off other groups from voting Labour.
Really needs highlighting again and again at the last election that as much as the Tories gaining more votes in a lot of seats was a factor, also a factor was the Lib Dems and Greens absorbing a decent chunk of the Labour vote, and of course the fascists putting their weight behind the Tories giving them a decent 5%+ boost in a lot of seats.

The US is actually the other extreme - in the US on average winning voters from the other party matters but, according to a research paper I posted here, it matters less than in any other democratic country and what really matters is getting your base to turn out.

I think there's a strong consensus from political scientists that what matters most in the UK is winning swing voters, that's what delivers a victory - and why the latest polls showing 10% of the Tory vote going to Labour is very promising (plus 30% saying they wouldn't vote and another 10% splitting across Lib Dems, Greens and Reform).

I don't think there is anything to worry about with the other parties because of geography and the fact that they do well in different types of seats. I actually think what matters most is tactical voting - which voters do naturally - and Labour being moderate enough that Tory voters are not afraid to vote Lib Dem or, increasingly, Green. I don't think it's a coincidence that the times when Labour have won - New Labour, Wilson but even Attlee - the Liberals have won quite a lot of votes. Plus it means the Tories have to choose: is the priority defending the red wall or fighting back against the Lib Dems. They've not had to make that type of tactical choice for a long time because Labour's ceded the field.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Labour party policies (or broadly social democratic policies) are far more popular than the Labour party itself. A tribute to the party's navel-gazing and internecine squabbling no doubt. Which, I think, is why a moderate Tory mp crossing the floor could be very helpful. That 10% of voters who drop the Tories whenever there is an alternative are crucial; now we have a former tory mp saying that Labour are electable and will do a better job than the current shower... makes it hard to dismiss Starmer as being some sort of commie 

[Sheilbh]

Labour party policies (or broadly social democratic policies) are far more popular than the Labour party itself. A tribute to the party's navel-gazing and internecine squabbling no doubt. Which, I think, is why a moderate Tory mp crossing the floor could be very helpful. That 10% of voters who drop the Tories whenever there is an alternative are crucial; now we have a former tory mp saying that Labour are electable and will do a better job than the current shower... makes it hard to dismiss Starmer as being some sort of commie 

I was just reading Citizen Clem - which is really good - and it is absolutely amazing how much you recognise of Labour in-fighting and, in the nicest possible way, problems from the Labour left in particular.

It was there in the 20s, in the 30s, during the war - I wasn't aware of this but basically Bevan was calling for Attlee to collapse the coalition or try to force Churchill or Labour to force Attlee out every other week because it wasn't delivering socialism quickly enough; Attlee noted the country probably wouldn't reward Labour for doing that during a war. It happens in the post-war government and then in the 1950 and 51 elections. The Labour left was in uproar around Korea and NHS charges and all the rest just before an election so you have Herbert Morrison doinig a conference speech where he literally says "let us not do things that play into Tory hands."

I don't know why but the in-fighting and factionalism and navel-gazing is incredible at every point in Labour's history.

[Gups]

Labour party policies (or broadly social democratic policies) are far more popular than the Labour party itself. A tribute to the party's navel-gazing and internecine squabbling no doubt. Which, I think, is why a moderate Tory mp crossing the floor could be very helpful. That 10% of voters who drop the Tories whenever there is an alternative are crucial; now we have a former tory mp saying that Labour are electable and will do a better job than the current shower... makes it hard to dismiss Starmer as being some sort of commie 

I was just reading Citizen Clem - which is really good - and it is absolutely amazing how much you recognise of Labour in-fighting and, in the nicest possible way, problems from the Labour left in particular.

It was there in the 20s, in the 30s, during the war - I wasn't aware of this but basically Bevan was calling for Attlee to collapse the coalition or try to force Churchill or Labour to force Attlee out every other week because it wasn't delivering socialism quickly enough; Attlee noted the country probably wouldn't reward Labour for doing that during a war. It happens in the post-war government and then in the 1950 and 51 elections. The Labour left was in uproar around Korea and NHS charges and all the rest just before an election so you have Herbert Morrison doinig a conference speech where he literally says "let us not do things that play into Tory hands."

I don't know why but the in-fighting and factionalism and navel-gazing is incredible at every point in Labour's history.

Yeah. Unfortunately we never had a viable communist party for them to go to. Even when they got a hard left leader in power in Michael Foot they were still causing trouble (e.g. Benn challenging Healy for the deputy leadership). 

[Gups]

PS Thanks for reminding me acount Citizen Clem. I meant to but it when it came out and forgot but have just ordered it now.

[Duque de Bragança]

He says he's a centrist and a moderate, but is switching rosette.

Jupin !

I don't think right-wing Tories would really ever defect.

Ah, this was about British politics. Well, not sure if that infamous part of French politics should be an inspiration for the Brits. 

[Sheilbh]

Nothing says backing the leader like changing the rulebook to make it easier to kick them out

Ben Kentish
@BenKentish
EXCL: 1922 Committee exec is considering a proposal to cut the minimum time between votes of no confidence from 1 year to six months, I'm told. Likely to be voted on as early as next week. If passed, would mean Boris Johnson could theoretically face two votes before the summer.
Some MPs think it would also lead to more letters being sent in, as anti-Johnson MPs would know they could have another crack at ousting the PM in the summer if he survives the next few weeks. More coming up on @lbc
Some sources say this isn't about Boris Johnson but about "tidying up" the rules after this issue was raised in relation to Theresa May, though the timing is v notable and it will be pushed by anti-Johnson MPs on the '22.

Just "tidying up" the rules.

[The Brain]

You have a minimum time between votes of no confidence?

[Sheilbh]

You have a minimum time between votes of no confidence?

The Tories do.

Johnson would survive a vote of no confidence in the Commons easily.

[The Brain]

You have a minimum time between votes of no confidence?

The Tories do.

Johnson would survive a vote of no confidence in the Commons easily.

Would Johnson not being Tory leader anymore impact his position as PM?

[Sheilbh]

Would Johnson not being Tory leader anymore impact his position as PM?

Yeah. The party leader is always PM here.

If the parliamentary Tory party has no confidence in him then he might basically hang on as PM until the next Tory leader is selected or step down to allow for an interim leader. We've not actually seen this system operate to remove a PM (it removed Duncan-Smith as leader of the opposition), but it could also be that if does badly so 150-210 that he'd step down because it's not plausible to carry on.

It could be done via a commons vote - but it'd be unusual. It's not legally required but the convention here is that if the commons has no confidence in the government then we go to an election. For obvious reasons the Tories do not want to go anywhere near that scenario.

There's been discussion of a PM carrying on as Prime Minister while no longer leading their party - I think Blair wanted to try it out - and I know it's common in Germany, I think Aznar did it too. But it's pretty much unheard of in practice in modern governments - it might have been a thing with Lloyd-George or MacDonald at one point?

And I think Labour's rules change when they're in office - but I cannot imagine the carnage a scandal like this would cause in the Labour party because I think it would basically pitch the parliamentary party v the membership

[The Brain]

Thanks.

[Zanza]

There's been discussion of a PM carrying on as Prime Minister while no longer leading their party - I think Blair wanted to try it out - and I know it's common in Germany,

Since 1949, there were about about 16 years were the chancellor was not also party leader. So not that common.