Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Telegraph's got a story about another party - this one a leaving do for the Director General of the Cabinet Office Covid Taskforce (now CEO of Sheffield City Council), where she was responsible for drawing up covid restrictions It was the day before the Christmas party.

Essentially they used every single excuse to break their own rules and party hard. Beautiful.

The thing that strikes me about this is Kate Josephs - the woman involved - is a career civil servant. It was attended by Simon Case, the Cabinet Secretary, a career civil servant.  They've spent many years working in the civil service between them.

I think it really shows the importance of character and leadership in defining the culture of a workplace/institutions.

Is there anything they do other than party?

Well, quite - it's incredible. It's getting to the point where the main source of my anger isn't the rule-breaking or the hypocrisy but the jealousy that they were having so much fun

[Gups]

Gary Neville tipped for mayor of Manchester.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/gary-neville-tipped-for-politics-after-holding-starmer-talks-284013

I can't help but wonder if this is an error. Wouldn't 95% of Manchester be against a prominent Man Utd player?

It's a bit of a myth that Mancunians all support City. It's about 50/50 really.

[The Larch]

Telegraph's got a story about another party - this one a leaving do for the Director General of the Cabinet Office Covid Taskforce (now CEO of Sheffield City Council), where she was responsible for drawing up covid restrictions It was the day before the Christmas party.

I think we're now up to 15.

Apparently the boozy "work meetings" were a weekly affair. They were so common they even invested in stuff for them. 

Downing Street staff 'held regular wine-time Friday' drinks during lockdown
Boris Johnson said to have witnessed the weekly events

Downing Street staff reportedly held drinks on Friday evenings throughout the pandemic with Boris Johnson regularly seeing them doing so.

The prime minister encouraged aides to "let off steam" despite having banned indoor socialising during lockdown, The Mirror reported a source as saying.

The paper said the end of week "wine-time Fridays" became such a fixture that staff bought a £142 drinks fridge and would head to a nearby Tesco with a suitcase to stock up on wine and beer.

The fridge was reportedly delivered on 11 December 2020, when rules banned two or more people from different households from meeting indoors, unless it was necessary for work.

Downing Street on Friday apologised to Buckingham Palace after reports that staff attended two separate parties on the night before Prince Philip's funeral in April.

Officials have refused to confirm or deny if Boris Johnson was aware of the two parties, after he admitted to attending an earlier drinks party and being pictured at a second.

The prime minister's spokesman said: "It is deeply regrettable that this took place at a time of national mourning and No 10 has apologised to the palace."

Around 50 Downing Street staff had the hours between 4pm and 7pm scheduled into their electronic calendars for "wine-time Fridays" every week, according to The Mirror.

The paper said the drinks were organised by the No 10 press office but advisers from other parts of the building would also attend. The prime minister's then defence adviser Captain Steve Higham reportedly showed up regularly.

[Sheilbh]

Not only that but on the two parties on one night:

Steven Swinford
@Steven_Swinford
Exclusive:

* Sue Gray 'blindsided' by revelations of No 10 drinks on eve of Prince Philip's funeral; she's concerned staff are concealing information

* Official photographer took pictures of leaving party; they were shared on WhatsApp and show staff drinking in background

I can only assume one of the papers now has photos. If I was having an illegal party in Downing Street, I would simply not invite the official photographer



I think Stephen Bush's point is astute on this - that governments can survive all sorts of things, but looking ridiculous is one of the most dangerous. We are very much in that territory now. And from the outside as someone who can't stand the Tories or Johnson - I cannot thing of anything more enjoyable than watching them feel the consequences of their own actions On the one hand I am angry about this and think it's a disgrace - on the other hand it is very funny and whoever is leaking these stories (Cummings) is doing an amazing job, which makes it very enjoyable to watch

[Valmy]

This can only mean big wins for the Lib Dems! 

[mongers]

This can only mean big wins for the Lib Dems! 

Save of course that they're renowned party animals.

[The Brain]

If I was having an illegal party in Downing Street, I would simply not invite the official photographer

Ergo it wasn't illegal. Get with the program.

[Syt]

[Sheilbh]

The Express was the last hold out - so this is a bit like Comical Ali turning

Point by Iain Martin that it's reminding him of when he was writing about RBS during the financial crisis and the end of Gordon Brown's premiership. Basically journalists clearly have very good sources in the building leaking these stories and that's starting to spiral out of control. Other civil servants, spads etc who haven't been talking to the press are starting to get worried that if they don't, then they'll be shafted in the coverage. So they're wanting to get their story out - basically it looks like everyone is probably starting to talk, with competitive briefings to the press - he thought we're entering the circular firing squad stage.

[Sheilbh]

This can only mean big wins for the Lib Dems! 

Distressingly - this time you might be right

It's the standard thing that generally both of the big parties do well when there's a pincer movement between them and the Lib Dems against the other party. It's the Lib Dems back at their traditional role as protest party. For it to work it requires Labour or the Tories to be relatively moderate so fear of accidentally helping elect or put into power, say, a Corbyn doesn't outweigh their distaste for the government.

[The Larch]

Operation Save Big Dog: Boris Johnson draws up plan for officials to quit over partygate so he can keep job

The blueprint is designed to limit fallout from Sue Gray's investigation, sources say

Boris Johnson is drawing up a list of officials to offer resignations over Partygate in a bid to salvage his premiership, The Independent has learned.

Dubbed "Operation Save Big Dog" by the prime minister himself, the blueprint includes a drive to work out which heads should roll following the publication of senior official Sue Gray's findings, as well as highlighting the prime minister's achievements, according to sources. Officials have also started using the code name, The Independent understands.

Dan Rosenfield, Boris Johnson's chief of staff, and Martin Reynolds, his private secretary and author of the "BYOB" email, are thought to be possible candidates for departure.

While putting names to the plan is a matter of hot debate, a more broadly accepted idea is that at least one senior political appointee and a senior official must be seen to leave Downing Street over the affair, as both groups share blame, two Whitehall sources said.

A former Tory cabinet minister told The Independent that, although they backed Mr Johnson, they believed a "root and branch" overhaul of No 10 and parts of the Cabinet Office would prove essential to move on from Partygate. It would be a "bare minimum to translate contrition into action", they said.

The "save big dog" plan includes a communications "grid" in the lead up to the investigation's conclusion and beyond. This comprises lines for supportive ministers to take in press interviews, emphasising a contrite prime minister and listing his achievements amid the difficult choices posed by the pandemic.

The operation also includes sounding out support among backbenchers for possible leadership rivals including chancellor Rishi Sunak, foreign secretary Liz Truss and even former health secretary Jeremy Hunt.

Mr Hunt is unlikely to command enough support to win the leadership, but No 10 aides believe could play an important role in any leadership contest.

The plan reflects how precarious the position of Downing Street and the Cabinet Office has become following a slew of highly detailed reports on parties amid Covid-19 restrictions.

On Friday, the former director general of the government's Covid taskforce posted an apology on social media for holding leaving drinks in the Cabinet Office during coronavirus restrictions days before Christmas in 2020.

Kate Josephs, chief executive of Sheffield City Council, said she was cooperating with a probe by senior civil servant Sue Gray and admitted to a "gathering ... with drinks, in our office".

It followed an apology from Downing Street to Buckingham Palace after reports from The Daily Telegraph of two No 10 parties held on the eve of Prince Philip's socially distanced funeral.

Officials have refused to confirm or deny if Boris Johnson was aware of these parties, after he admitted to attending at least one drinks party and was pictured at a second. On Friday the prime minister's spokesman said: "It is deeply regrettable that this took place at a time of national mourning and No 10 has apologised to the palace."

It is not clear if Downing Street admitted, in its apology to the palace, to having breached Covid rules with a social gathering. One of the gatherings was a leaving party for Mr Johnson's director of communications, James Slack, who said on Friday that the "event should not have happened at the time that it did".

Downing Street also refused to comment on the existence of a plan to save Mr Johnson, but when asked about the name "Operation Save Big Dog", a spokesperson said: "We absolutely do not recognise this phrase."

Polling for The Independent revealed voters are deserting Mr Johnson over the party scandal, with 70 per cent calling for him to quit and almost as many dismissing his Commons apology as bogus.

The survey, by Savanta, found that just 21 per cent backed the prime minister to stay in power.

Just as worryingly for the embattled leader, 68 per cent did not consider his apology – in which he claimed he did not realise a "bring your own booze" gathering in his garden was a party – to be genuine.

[Sheilbh]

I think Gavin Barwell's (Theresa May's former Chief of Staff - so someone with a good reason to really dislike Johnson) long thread from yesterday on this is good. I don't think it will work - especially because I don't think all of the stories are out yet. I think we are in the stage of a scandal, you could call it the duck house moment, where the seriousness of the scandal and moral outrage of the public is locked in - so now it lives not through new outrages (though who knows) but ever more baroque details (someone breaking Wilf's swing, the £150 booze fridge, the spilled wine on the basement carpet). I would be surprised if at least one or two of the sunday papers don't have new revelations (maybe pictures):

Gavin Barwell
@GavinBarwell
A thread on where we are at the end of an unprecedented week in British politics, what Number 10 are trying to achieve and what they should be worried about 1/n
Let's start by recapping what the PM tried to achieve at PMQs. He offered an apology (though a bit of a politician's apology - "there were things *we* didn't get right & I must take responsibility"). He admitted he was at the party but said he believed it was a work event 2/n
And he pleaded for everyone to wait for Sue Gray's report. He kept coming back to this, which suggests he has been briefed on the draft findings and thinks they will help his cause. He will be hoping the publication of the report will draw a line under this issue 3/n
He can then make some changes at Number 10 (if the report is relatively good news for him, it is presumably less good news for some of his officials and/or advisers) and try to rebuild his standing with his MPs and the public  4/n
People may be angry now, but he will be hoping that anger fades over time, he gets some credit for the booster rollout/making the right decision on lockdown before Christmas and can move the debate on to other issues eg the Levelling Up White Paper 5/n
His statement on Wednesday at least got him off the ludicrous "I can't say whether I went to a party in my own garden until Sue Gray tells me" line and bought him some time, but if I was doing my old job I would have five big concerns 6/n
First *will* the Sue Gray report draw a line under this issue? The danger is that unless it is very critical of him, it will be dismissed as a cover up produced by a civil servant who works for him 7/n
That would be unfair on her - I worked with Sue and know her to be a person of integrity - but her remit is only to report on the facts. As a civil servant she can't pronounce on the PM's innocence/guilt. 8/n
Any attempt to pin the blame on others will go down very badly. So too any attempt to repeat the work event defence. At no point did anyone suggest it was fine to socialise with work colleagues outside 9/n
Second, will more things come out after her report? The PM has been suffering from a constant drip, drip, drip of leaks from people who work - or used to work - in Downing Street. How confident is Number 10 that the Gray report is exhaustive? 10/n
Don't underestimate the importance of this. There are some MPs who have never liked the PM and want him gone, but there are others who support him but won't continue to do so if he can't stop the drip, drip, drip of negative stories 11/n
Some supporters of the PM have been trying to pin *all* the blame on civil servants. This is *exceptionally* unwise because it encourages counter-briefing against political advisers/the PM . They are effectively creating a circular firing squad 12/n
Third, will some Cabinet ministers resign following the Gray report? It took quite a while to get the Cabinet to tweet their support on Wednesday and some of the tweets were hardly ringing endorsements 13/n
One thing in the PM's favour is that his rivals would probably prefer to take over in the summer - after a difficult six months as inflation peaks and what are bound to be bad local election results - rather than inherit now... 14/n
...but they will be calculating whether there is first mover advantage in distancing themselves from him or whether he/she who wields the dagger will not get to wear the crown15/n
Fourth, what will the polls show? The Conservative Party has historically been more successful than Labour because it is more ruthless. If his MPs conclude that they are more likely to hold their seats with someone else as leader, they will get rid of him 16/n
So the longer the polls continue to show this, the more vulnerable he becomes 17/n
And finally will he be able to rebuild his standing with the public? A bit, but almost certainly not completely. 95% of what goes on at Westminster makes no difference to public opinion, but some things cut through. This is one of them 18/n
A hard truth about politics is once people make their mind up about you it is very hard to change it. Blair never fully recovered from Iraq, nor Brown from bottling calling the election. Boris *may* survive this, but he is very unlikely to fully recover from it 19/n
It may be too late now, but his only chance of surviving is a) not to try to blame others, b) to get all the facts out there asap, c) to hug his rivals close and d) to hope the polls show he remains the most popular Conservative in the Red Wall 20/20

Also key, I think, is that there's going to be competing interests within the Tory party now. None of the contenders or the parliamentary party will want Johnson to go now. They'll want him to be in place during the drubbing they're likely to receive in May's local elections - then they can get rid of him in late May/early June. The replacement has a summer recess to try and "reset" things, plus up to 18 months before the next election. But a fairly big chunk of Tory activists will be either going up for election in the local elections or campaigning in them, so they'll be the ones facing and bearing the brunt of public anger. I think they would probably quite like Johnson gone now and I wonder if they'd reward someone breaking cover now - for example Sunak or Truss stepping down or calling for Johnson to resign - more than the contenders just waiting.

And the other point is at what point - and I think we might be there already - this story stops being solely linked to Johnson and starts damaging the Tory brand itself. At the minute, for the first time since he's been leader, Johnson is polling as less popular than the Tory party. There's been a few polls now showing a 10-15% Labour lead and the Tories have dropped below 30% in a couple of polls - it won't be that bad in an election, but even during the New Labour days 30% was seen as about the floor for the Tory numbers (and for Labour during Corbyn). At the minute, under 50% of Tory 2019 voters are saying they'll vote Tory again. About 30% are just saying they won't vote - normally those voters go back at the next election, so the key now is whether Starmer can make this hurt more for the Tories, use it to define himself in the public eye and also use the attention to get a wider hearing on other issues. Obviously, which will annoy the left and the hard-line Remainers, that means pitching for people who previously voted Tory not doubling down on just increasing turnout in areas Labour already does well.

[Sheilbh]

Maybe Javid has a chance after all:


Among Tories, Sunak is 76-10, Javid is 53-27, Truss is 39-23, Hunt is 34-38, Gove is 43-40 and Patel is 34-48.

All else aside it's a remarkable shift in the Tory party (and a legacy of Cameron's A-lists) that their next leadership final two could plausibly be between a practicing Hindu British-Indian and a non-practicing Muslim British-Pakistani. Until the 2010 general election, the Tories had 2 non-white MPs. And if it's neither of them then it's most likely their third woman leader.

[Richard Hakluyt]

That is a redeeming feature of the whole imbroglio 

It is a disappointment that Labour is so poor on this metric.

[Josquius]

I say Meh on that and worth considering labours minority MPs tend to be people who represent their constituency rather than parachuted randomers.

Though down the line who knows. Khan and Lammy, Lammy, and Nandy are potentials for the future.
And then there was Chukka who could have been but for the whole fall on his sword fptp thing.