Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

They can distract as much as they want (and NI is not a great distraction), but if there are shortages at Christmas it will probably be Johnson's poll tax moment.

Or a winter energy crisis - which would take very little. Just a slightly colder winter than normal and we may have shortages. It may be manageable by using more coal as an emergency so gas can be used for heating or through restrictions on heavy industry energy usage (I'm not sure they need bailing out to keep operating - I think there's a possibiliity they may need to be bailed out because they have to be mothballed over the winter). There'd be something incredibly ironic if the thing that did for Johnson wasn't actually really a consequence of Brexit, but an effect of a couple of decades of under-investment/no forward planning.

It was probably quite sensible to get to Marbella now to avoid the risk of a Jim Callaghan style photo on a beach in Barbados

On the politics side I think Labour should already be working on their shambles/no grip/no plan attack lines. It strikes me as a line of attack that would fit with Starmer's competence pitch.

More widely though the International Energy Authority Chief Economist has said there's a mismatch between fossil fuel demand and investments in production, which is going to get worse on current trends. But that the solution isn't to increase investment in fossil fuels - but for governments to take serious measures to reduce fossil fuel demand (which is politically fraught) and filling the supply gap with renewables. I've said it before but I think, especially in the UK, we've done the easy low-hanging fruit of energy transition and we're now at the bit that's going to be more difficult.

One example is the various levies and taxes on electricity v gas bills which were in place historically because electricity was dirtier than gas. But that's created incentives for lots of people to use gas and want it as the cheaper option for heating, cooking etc. Apparently the government is looking at options but likely to basically raise levies and taxes on gas to match electricity which is sensible from a purely climate perspective but it'll also need measures to support pensioners and probably a lot of poor working-age people to make sure that they're not just turning off the heating/not cooking to avoid new, higher bills. It's the challenges of getting a domestically just transition.

[Tamas]

A thought has hit me.

Things have been gradually getting worse since 2016 with Sheilbh consistently pointing out throughout why things are fine at any given moment.

[Sheilbh]

Me: We might be facing blackouts and energy shortages over winter, with a risk of the poor and the old having to choose between eating and heating.

Tamas: STOP SAYING EVERTHING'S FINE

I think my takes hold up (except for my bad ones which were a mistake and out of character ).

[Tamas]

Me: We might be facing blackouts and energy shortages over winter, with a risk of the poor and the old having to choose between eating and heating.

Tamas: STOP SAYING EVERTHING'S FINE

I think my takes hold up (except for my bad ones which were a mistake and out of character ).

Yeah I mean this uncharacteristically gloomy post made me realise this general trend.  The trend that we are governed by short-sighted chancers who never consider anything past next week's poll numbers, and you regularly look for long-term policy considerations which simply don't exist.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah I mean this uncharacteristically gloomy post made me realise this general trend.  The trend that we are governed by short-sighted chancers who never consider anything past next week's poll numbers, and you regularly look for long-term policy considerations which simply don't exist.

Isn't that just democratic politics? Grubby self-interested people with a permanent beady eye on their re-election/political risks taking/avoiding decisions with in the background their ideological belief system/convictions as a very rough guide It's the standard authoritarian critique of democracy anyway - politicians can't think in more than a 2 or 4 year cycle while in enlightened despotisms like China take a long view etc etc.

And you should consider the long term policy considerations because these decisions and these people (I buy the personnel is policy viewpoint) have policy impacts. Look at the energy crisis right now - that's at least 10-15 years in the making and lots of decisions or, I'd argue more importantly, ministers avoiding decisions that has led to the position where we have a fraction of the gas storage of the rest of Europe despite using more gas than average, that we're relying on ageing energy infrastructure and that we're decommissioning coal and nuclear plants without a non renewable/variable replacement.

There's big global trends that are driving issues around energy - Asia's increasing transition to LNG, continental Europe's reliance on Russia plus Russian gas politics, covid ending. The impact in Britain is at least partially because Ed Miliband was Energy Secretary in 2008-2010, had his eyes on the leadership and put all the nuclear developments on ice for two years because he had eyes on the leadership. Similarly the downgrading of nuclear plans was shaped by the Lib Dems - who had that ministry - wanting some policy wins and refocusing on renewables was a big one for them.

I think it's more extreme now in UK politics in part as I say because I think there's a re-alignment under way and the political bases of our parties are shifting. We are, I think, at the minute in a moment of transition. So the political base and opinions of people that politicians are looking at to inform/build their coalition of support are febrile. That was especially the case when we had governments with a majority of 6 or a minority government - now there's a big majority all the politics that matters really is happening in the Tory party.

And, in addition, Johnson is ideologically unmoored on traditional political issues. There's things that I think, looking at Johnson's 20+ years in politics, you can say are true of him: he's a liberal Tory, he loves grands projets, he is incredibly lazy (so who he delegates to matters), he's fundamentally dishonest. But that doesn't mean there aren't long-term policy considerations, or that different factions and leaders within the Tory party don't have long term ideological goals.

Meanwhile - in frustrating news it seems likely that George Galloway will have a chance to run for MP in a by-election again

MP Claudia Webbe found guilty of harassment
Leicester East MP was accused of making unwanted phone calls and threatening her partner's female friend
Rajeev Syal
Wed 13 Oct 2021 16.52 BST

An MP has been found guilty of harassment and is expected to face demands to stand down from her seat.

Claudia Webbe, the independent MP for Leicester East, was accused of carrying out a campaign of harassment through unwanted telephone calls against Michelle Merritt, a female friend of her partner. She allegedly called Merritt a slag, threatened an acid attack and said she would distribute naked pictures of Merritt to her family.

Webbe, a close ally of Jeremy Corbyn, was elected as Labour MP for Leicester East but had the whip withdrawn after being charged. She was elected for the first time in 2019 with a majority of 6,019. She denied harassment between 1 September 2018 and 26 April 2020.

More details soon ...

[HVC]

Looks like she's more then just a "female friend of her partner".

[Valmy]

She should know the proper way for a politician to run a harassment campaign is to just coyly point her followers in somebody's direction.

[Josquius]

Labour really has picked some awful MPs in recent times. It's bizzare.

[The Brain]

She denied harassment between 1 September 2018 and 26 April 2020.

Did she get breaks for meals?

[Sheilbh]

Labour really has picked some awful MPs in recent times. It's bizzare.

Yeah. Jamie O'Hara springs to mind too. Webbe is on the hard left - she was an advisor for Livingstone and then got on the NEC on the Corbynite slate after he won the leadership. She'd tried and failed to get selected by a couple of London constituencies. I understand there were a lot of candidates in 2017 and 2019 that were picked very quickly because it wasn't in the normal election cycle (though in both cases the elections were pretty predictable and, in 2019, only happened because Labour voted for it). From what I've read there were a few near misses of some very eccentric candidates

But with Webbe she'd been looking for ages - as had the party, then Keith Vaz had to stand down after the rent boys and drugs scandal - and Leicester's her home town. I think she was presented to the local party on a shortlist of one and it caused some issues because that constituency party tends to be quite centrist and she's on the hard-left. Also there was a lot of frustration from different bits of the British Asian community that no Asian candidates were even interviewed.

It's a very diverse constituency and Keith Vaz had a lot of personal loyalty so the majority went from abour 24,000 to 6,000 between 2017-19. The Tories are normally runners up and are now on about 40% of the vote to Labour's 50%. If there is a by-election then I imagine Galloway would run - as ever stirring up hatred and targeting the Muslim community that currently largely votes Labour - so it could go Tory.

Edit: The details of this are crazy - including the most implausible defence I've ever heard. Not convinced the character references were a great idea. Labour are calling for her to step down:

MP Claudia Webbe could face jail after harassment conviction
Leicester East MP urged to quit her seat after harassment campaign that included threatening an acid attack
Rajeev Syal
Wed 13 Oct 2021 19.10 BST

The MP Claudia Webbe is facing a potential jail sentence and demands to stand down from her seat after being found guilty of a campaign of harassment including threatening an acid attack.

Webbe, the independent MP for Leicester East, who was elected as a Labour candidate in 2019 but had the party whip withdrawn, was accused of harassing Michelle Merritt, a friend of her partner, with threatening phone calls. The trial was told she had called Merritt a slag, threatened to "use acid" and said she would distribute naked pictures of Merritt to her family.

Following the guilty verdict and a warning from the judge that she could face a prison sentence, Labour called for Webbe to quit her seat, which would trigger a byelection. Webbe protested her innocence and made clear that she planned to continue as an MP.

"While I'm preparing for the appeal I want to assure the people of Leicester East that I will continue to stand up for them in parliament, fighting on their behalf," she said.

Webbe, a close ally of Jeremy Corbyn, was elected as Labour MP for Leicester East with a majority of 6,019 but had the whip withdrawn last year after being charged.

She denied harassment between 1 September 2018 and 26 April 2020 but after a two-day trial chief district judge Paul Goldspring found her guilty.

"I find she was jealous of the relationship between Lester [Thomas, her partner] and Michelle. Whatever the nature of that relationship, she certainly thought it was something she was not happy with," he said. "I found Ms Webbe's evidence to be vague, inconsistent and at times to be illogical. It was shaped around the overwhelming evidence against her she could not innocently answer, but ultimately I found it to be untruthful."

He said her conduct towards Merritt was "oppressive and was designed to be so". "In particular threatening to send intimate photographs to her family and to 'use acid' are in my view the best evidence of the intent."

He adjourned sentencing to 4 November and released Webbe, 56, on unconditional bail but warned she could face prison.

A Labour spokesperson said: "The Labour party strongly condemns Claudia Webbe's actions and she should now resign."

During the trial Paul Hynes QC, defending, read out a string of character references from figures including Corbyn, the former shadow chancellor John McDonnell and the former shadow home secretary Diane Abbott.

Webbe is a former chair of Operation Trident, which was set up in response to shootings disproportionately affecting black people in London. She was a councillor in Islington between 2010 and 2018 and was a member of Labour's national executive committee.

She entered the House of Commons in December 2019, winning the seat formerly held by Keith Vaz, the former Labour minister who retired from parliament in the wake of a scandal involving cocaine and sex workers. Last month an official report found Vaz had engaged in "sustained and unpleasant bullying" towards a member of parliamentary staff.

If Webbe receives a custodial sentence of less than a year and her appeal fails, a recall petition would be triggered in her constituency. To prompt a byelection, 10% of the electorate within the constituency would need to sign the petition.

Vaz told the Guardian last month that he would not stand again as a Labour candidate in Leicester East but he is known to still carry some support among the constituency party's executive and voters.

Westminster magistrates court heard Webbe made a string of unwanted calls to Merritt. Merritt told the court that the calls, most of which were from withheld telephone numbers, made her "worried and unnerved". "When you're being called and there's no one answering it unnerves you, especially as a woman who lives alone," she said.

After Merritt received a call on Mother's Day in 2019, in which Webbe identified herself, she decided to contact police, telling them: "She works for the Labour party, she is in the public arena and she's accusing me of, in her words, 'slagging around with her boyfriend', which I'm not. She's threatened to throw acid over me, she knows where I live, she's going to send pictures of me and him to my daughters."

Police officers spoke to Webbe and Merritt and requested that contact should cease, the court heard. But on 25 April last year Merritt received two calls, both eight seconds long and from the same number. Merritt told the court: "I just hung up very quickly. I didn't want to speak to her.

"[Having received those two calls] I had to somehow prove that she was calling me because until that date all the calls had been no caller ID and the first threat call wasn't recorded ... so I called back the number that was on my phone."

In the recording, played to the court, Webbe answered the phone and shouted at Merritt: "Why are you still butting in and getting with Lester? Why, why? He's not your friend, he's with me and I don't want you to be in touch with me, I don't want you to be in touch with him."

Webbe screamed "get out of my relationship" 11 times, according to the recording. She also said: "I've seen all of your posts, I've seen all of your naked pictures, I've seen all of your relationship with Lester. Otherwise I will tell all of your family and I will show them all of your pictures."

Giving evidence last month, Webbe, from Islington, denied harassment, claiming she had made "courtesy calls" to warn Merritt not to breach coronavirus rules by meeting Thomas.

Asked whether she had threatened Merritt, Webbe told the court: "I've spent my lifetime campaigning for the rights of women, challenging this kind of behaviour. This is not something that's in my character and it's not something I would ever do."

After the verdict, Webbe said she was "deeply shocked". "I am innocent and will appeal this verdict. As I said in court and repeat now, I have never threatened violence nor have I ever harassed anyone," she said.

Her lawyer, Raj Chada, added: "We will be appealing this unjust verdict. The recording of the call Ms Webbe made has been taken out of context. We are sure that Ms Webbe will be vindicated at an appeal."

Edit: Incidentally today from Ipsos Mori on how people feel Brexit is going:

Ben Page
@benatipsos
Brexit how's it going ?
Worse than expected 29%
Better than expected 15%
About same as I expected 47%

Also Raoul Ruparel is not wildly impressed by EU papers which have been overbriefed. Obviously they're discussion papers but I'm not sure the framing helps and while the SPS stuff seems sensible it seems they're incredibly vague customs (5 short paragraphs with no detail) and the propopsal on life-saving medicines approved in the UK but not the EU is basically the current position: https://twitter.com/RaoulRuparel/status/1448360269240020996?s=20

[Tamas]

So the EU is doing a 1914 Serbian response to the ultimatum, accepting everything but the final humiliation of renouncing their own ECJ -all in the interest of peace in the UK, mind- and what are the Leaver comments in the Guardian? "Why wasn't this in the original deal?!" If I didn't know people would die I'd wish the EU called the bluff, raised the border, and watch as reality hits these morons in the face.

[Josquius]

And the brexit cry on the media still tends towards "look at how the EU has treat us! Proves we were right to leave! Boo!"

[Zanza]

Reading the comments from the trade experts it sounds like most of the "huge" EU concessions are just spin as they are heavily conditional, tying British private actors to EU market rules. Hardly a completely surrender, rather actually workable solution for some of the issues that Northern Irish Business has on the ground.

[Tamas]

Boris Johnson gave personal assurances to Northern Ireland MP Ian Paisley that he would commit to "tearing up" the Brexit protocol that is now the centre of a major row between the UK and the EU, it has been claimed.

The Democratic Unionist party MP made the comments on BBC's Newsnight just hours after the prime minister's former adviser Dominic Cummings claimed it was always the intention to sign the withdrawal agreement in January 2020 but "ditch bits" they didn't like in the protocol.

"Boris Johnson did tell me personally that he would, after agreeing to the protocol, he would sign up to changing that protocol and indeed tearing it up, that this was just for the semantics," Paisley said.

What is the 'new model' the EU is proposing for Northern Ireland?
Read more
Referring to Cummings' claims that they needed to go to the country with a flawed deal to help with "whacking [Jeremy] Corbyn" in the election of 2019, Paisley added: "That comment has been verified by another source much closer to Boris Johnson within his own government."

"So, the fact of the matter is, I do believe, that the government didn't really want this to happen to Northern Ireland and they took a short-term bet."

[Richard Hakluyt]

Hold the presses! Johnson a liar!