Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

Sheilbh: Yeah we have lots of coincidentally synchronised crisis none of which are linked to the coincidentally synched Brexit according to the various narratives. What an unlucky country this is, accidentally hit by a number of unrelated issues right at the time when the stupidest decision of a generation came into effect.

As in most things happening at the moment it both is an isn't brexit.
Little has a single cause. The UK leaving the common gas market is definitely part of this. But the core of it is our own failure to prepare for things not working perfectly right.
Which is a problem as it lets those who are signed up to the brexit cult but their fingers in their ears and say its entirely down to the non-brexit related reasons.

See also the current truck driver shortage- it IS a global problem...But brexit and the UK's massively increased inefficiencies and sudden loss of a large chunk of workers have given us a worse crisis than anywhere else in the world. Nonetheless pro-brexit figures keep banging on about how its a global problem and nothing to do with brexit.

Tyr, I don't think the number and type of suppliers have much to do with this. Our provider went bust early this year, we didn't have any hickup in our actual supply of course, just got a letter one day saying "BTW your supplier went bankrupt like two months ago, you are now with EDF, good luck".

I think it does, in the sense of everything being based on passing the blame and pursuing quick profits.

[Sheilbh]

Sheilbh: Yeah we have lots of coincidentally synchronised crisis none of which are linked to the coincidentally synched Brexit according to the various narratives. What an unlucky country this is, accidentally hit by a number of unrelated issues right at the time when the stupidest decision of a generation came into effect.

That's literally not what I said. Workers and goods - definitely Brexit. Inflation - little bit Brexit. Energy - apparently not Brexit.

But I think it is mad to say it must all be Brexit when there has also been a global pandemic and the biggest economic contraction in recorded history and other countries are experiencing similar issues - that will also have an effect. On gas maybe the Guardian have become converted Brexit enthusiasts and are covering up its impact. It seems to me it's not Brexit but a combination of global factors (Russian supply, Asian demand) and domestic failures (lack of storage, lack of planning for the point when old nuclear plants are winding down but before new ones are online etc).

On inflation - I've now checked - the latest UK CPI is 3.2%. In the US it's over 5%, the Eurozone CPI is 3% (big-ish range though - Germany's at 3.9%, Spain's 3.3%, Italy's 2%, France's 1.9%). There will definitely be a Brexit element to inflation in the UK, but I think there are global forces - as you can see in the Eurozone and US numbers - that are driving inflation and, despite Brexit, the UK is still affected by the rest of the world

Tyr, I don't think the number and type of suppliers have much to do with this. Our provider went bust early this year, we didn't have any hickup in our actual supply of course, just got a letter one day saying "BTW your supplier went bankrupt like two months ago, you are now with EDF, good luck".

Same - except I was moved to Scottish Power. I'm not 100% sure on the benefit of having as many energy companies as we do as they're largely on the middle-man model - if that enables compaies like Bulb to emerge who have since become the 7th largest energy producer (100% renewables) as well then the churn of companies that are just a website and a call centre might be worth it as it doesn't effect consumers. I sort of think it wouldn't be the first sector where what you do enables important innovations but also a lot of flotsam.

I'm not sure what the right balance is

And I might move to London Power actually - which is one of those flotsam set up by the Mayor. It doesn't actually produce any energy, which is all supplied by Octopus, but any profit gets re-invested to fund the Mayor's environment plan

Hopefully out of this we'll see more heat pump funding projects? Alas will probably be too late for me, likely need a new boiler this winter.

As I say I hope this is a catalyst for massively increasing subsidies and accelerating updates to heating/cooking infrastructure in homes. It's one of the expensive/difficult but really important bits of the UK getting to net zero and I sort of hope a crisis will force the issue.

Hydrogen will be really important in that - which is why I hope we push ahead with it. But again there is a bit of letting perfect be the enemy of the good here because

[Richard Hakluyt]

Incidentally, the winds have picked up and are once again providing a third of our electricity https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

From about 2% the past fortnight which has not been helpful, apart from sharpening minds about what is needed to make a decarbonised grid work.

[The Larch]

The electricity crisis is not unique to the UK, costs are sky high in the whole continent due to shortages in gas production in Norway and a reduced delivery by Russia, as well as increased demand for LNG from East Asian countries, which greatly increased its price.

The Brexit angle of the whole thing is indirect, as by leaving the EU the UK also left its electricity market, including its supply stabilization mechanism, so the UK can't take advantage of it and get enough electricity from other EU countries at a good price, as it needs to take part in what are called "explicit auctions" rather than taking part in the common EU electricity pool.

[The Brain]

If only there was a way to split atoms for power.

[Syt]

If only there was a way to split atoms for power.

If we could split hairs for power Languish and much of the internet would solve all our energy problems for generations.

[Sheilbh]

The Brexit angle of the whole thing is indirect, as by leaving the EU the UK also left its electricity market, including its supply stabilization mechanism, so the UK can't take advantage of it and get enough electricity from other EU countries at a good price, as it needs to take part in what are called "explicit auctions" rather than taking part in the common EU electricity pool.

But I think that probably is very indirect compared to the direct drivers which seem to be the gas shortage, the fire that destroyed the interconnector with 2/3s of our capacity to get energy from France and outages at old nuclear plants (plus unusually still weather).

As I say I just feel like if there was a Brexit angle the Guardian articles I've read would have flagged it

If only there was a way to split atoms for power.

I know - and we're still only building one new plant. I think at the start the plan was for five

It's like HS2 which has been cut back to far less than the original plan - it's that thing British governments (of all parties) keep doing of somehow managing to build enough new-ish infrastructure to incur all of the political costs without building enough that we actually get the benefits

[The Larch]

The Brexit angle of the whole thing is indirect, as by leaving the EU the UK also left its electricity market, including its supply stabilization mechanism, so the UK can't take advantage of it and get enough electricity from other EU countries at a good price, as it needs to take part in what are called "explicit auctions" rather than taking part in the common EU electricity pool.

But I think that probably is very indirect compared to the direct drivers which seem to be the gas shortage, the fire that destroyed the interconnector with 2/3s of our capacity to get energy from France and outages at old nuclear plants (plus unusually still weather).

As I say I just feel like if there was a Brexit angle the Guardian articles I've read would have flagged it

It is very indirect, yeah. EU countries have been suffering from sky high prices as well, in Spain it has been one of the big issues of the summer.

[Duque de Bragança]

Sheilbh: Yeah we have lots of coincidentally synchronised crisis none of which are linked to the coincidentally synched Brexit according to the various narratives. What an unlucky country this is, accidentally hit by a number of unrelated issues right at the time when the stupidest decision of a generation came into effect.

Tyr, I don't think the number and type of suppliers have much to do with this. Our provider went bust early this year, we didn't have any hickup in our actual supply of course, just got a letter one day saying "BTW your supplier went bankrupt like two months ago, you are now with EDF, good luck".

EDF? Would be terrible news for Tyr, it's Électricité de France. 

[Grey Fox]

IIRC, EDF is the UK's biggest distributor & top 3 generator.

[Sheilbh]

IIRC, EDF is the UK's biggest distributor & top 3 generator.

Yeah EDF is one of the big 6 energy companies - and they're the commercial bit of the new nuclear plant that's being built.

Edit: Looking it up they bought British Energy which makes sense.

[Sheilbh]

So this is sort of separate from politics - it's more about an issue in politics rather than something political - but it's been recommended that former Labour MP Keith Vaz is banned for life from Westminster following investigations into bullying allegations.

The issue is basically around treatment of the parliamentary staff - so people who don't work for any party or any MP but for the institution, for example clerks, parliamentary lawyers (who help advise MPs on drafting) and other members of staff. The allegations about Vaz I think relate to someone who worked for one of the committees.

The bosses of Westminster are basically the Speaker and Lord Speaker who should have some responsibility for protecting staff. But this has been a problem for years (if not the institution's entire history) and was not addressed at all while Bercow was speaker (he has been the subject of repeated allegations of bullying by parliamentary staff and had at least two members of staff signed off on sick leave for PTSD from his behaviour). Lindsay Hoyle who's replaced him has instituted more protections, ways of reporting and this independent panel that can review allegations and make recommendations on sitting and former MPs  (I understand that clerks and members of staff in parliament were delighted that Hoyle won - and that Bercow was leaving) - but it's difficult because staff can't just go to HR. I think it's all open to aides as well because party based reporting has been really poor/not working. And there aren't really structures for a lot of the people who work in parliament because it really sort of revolves around the MPs and (to a lesser extent) Lords.

Don't know what happens in other countries but I can imagine this is a common in pretty much every legislature - this seems like a start with ways of reporting with an independent investigator plus review mechanisms for the most serious cases but I feel like more could be done still.

Incidentally Esther Webber is an amazing politics reporter - she does all of the normal stuff that reporters do, but she used to work for BBC Parliament and I think mainly on the Lords so she's actually done lots of reporting about issues faced by staff in parliament and is always worth following because she still keeps an eye out on the Lords. Both of those are angles that are ignored by more purely political/lobby facing reporters.

Ex-MP Keith Vaz subjected staff to 'sustained and unpleasant bullying'
The complainant spoke of 'far-reaching and ongoing impact' on her professional and personal life.
By Esther Webber
September 23, 2021 3:15 pm

LONDON — A prominent former Labour MP bullied a member of parliamentary staff so severely she left her job, an inquiry into his conduct found.

Keith Vaz, who represented Leicester East from 1987 to 2019 and served as chairman of the prestigious home affairs committee, targeted Jenny McCullough, a clerk for the committee, between 2007 and 2008.

He repeatedly disparaged her religion, gender and ability to do her work, on one occasion comparing her to a prostitute and on another saying she could not supervise the committee properly because she "wasn't a mother".

Vaz did not engage with the investigation, citing ill health, but the inquiry conducted a review of his other activity at the time and was not persuaded he was incapable of any response. The former MP condemned the process as "riddled with flaws" and said it had impacted his health.

McCullough told POLITICO she was "pleased" the inquiry "concluded what I, my friends and former colleagues have long known: That Keith Vaz did enormous harm to me and my career".

She added that pursuing her complaint against Vaz was a "grueling experience" that highlighted problems with the process. She hoped by seeing it through, however, she had "helped to improve the process for the benefit both of individual staff members and of the House as a whole", noting that she doubted being alone in leaving her job due to bullying.

Her case was initially investigated by Kathryn Stone, the parliamentary standards commissioner, and referred to the Independent Expert Panel (IEP) dealing with the most serious complaints against current and former MPs.

McCullough told the commissioner Vaz's behavior had "a far-reaching and ongoing impact" on her professional and personal life, as well as on her physical and mental health.

Steve Irwin, chair of the IEP, said of the final report: "[Vaz]'s conduct deserves a clear and formal reprimand. [His] conduct to the complainant was hostile, sustained, harmful and unworthy of a Member of Parliament. He should be ashamed of his behavior."

Vaz stood down as an MP at the 2019 election while facing a lengthy suspension from the Commons and the loss of his parliamentary pass after a separate incident of misconduct.

In that incident, he had been sanctioned by the standards committee after being found to have "expressed willingness" to purchase cocaine for male prostitutes and failing to engage with the subsequent inquiry. He rejected that claim, again saying he was too unwell to participate in the process.

Vaz has since been active in his local Labour Party, and was briefly elected its chairman last year.

One local activist claimed Vaz had been "campaigning hard" to return to parliament as his successor in Leicester East, Claudia Webbe, is currently facing trial for harassment, which she denies.

A statement issued on behalf of the former MP said the inquiry was "a deeply fractured process" which had not given him the right to question witnesses or instigate an appeal. He added that he had developed Bell's Palsy "as a direct result of the protracted and debilitating process" and "the matter is now in the hands of solicitors."

This article was updated after Keith Vaz issued a statement.

[The Larch]

Boris Johnson asked for 'emergency' food deal, says Bolsonaro

The Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, has claimed Boris Johnson asked him for an "emergency" deal to ease shortages of an unspecified food product, amid concerns about further disruption to supermarket supplies.

A lack of drivers and food pickers, as well as carbon dioxide used to stun animals for slaughter and create dry ice to keep food fresh, has led to fears that some goods will be missing from shelves in the run-up to Christmas.

Downing Street has urged people not to panic-buy, after the announcement by BP that there may be a lack of fuel at some petrol stations and the managing director of Iceland supermarket warned food supplies could come under threat within days, not weeks.

Government insiders worry about a return to the days leading up to the first coronavirus lockdown, where shelves were left bare as people stockpiled items such as toilet roll.

Bolsonaro made the claim about Johnson's request after a meeting between them in New York earlier this week at the UN general assembly. The prime minister had stressed the benefits of the Covid-19 vaccine to his Brazilian counterpart.

However, speaking in his weekly webcast to supporters, Bolsonaro recalled that Johnson "wants an emergency agreement with us to import some kind of food that is lacking in England", according to Reuters, though he did not specify what the product was.

It is understood the UK government regards the claim as untrue.

Some have speculated the food Brazil could be helpful with supplying is turkeys, after UK poultry producers said serious staff shortages caused by Brexit could mean there would not be enough of the birds to go around this Christmas.

According to the website Poultry World, Brazil is the world's third highest producer of poultry – including chicken and turkey – and exported 12.5m tonnes to the EU last year.

On Thursday, Johnson's deputy spokesperson said fuel and food had a "very resilient supply chain" in the UK. They urged people not to change their behaviour, and stressed: "People should continue to buy it as usual."

The transport secretary, Grant Shapps, vowed to "move heaven and earth" to solve the nationwide shortage of truck drivers. Asked about the Petrol Retailers Association warning drivers to keep a quarter of a tank of fuel in their car in case forecourts ran out, he downplayed the issue and said motorists should "carry on as normal" and not panic-buy.

[Josquius]

In local news.... The Tories take over in traditional Labour areas is going as well as can be expected.

https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19595833.durham-county-council-review-hq-city-centre/?ref=fbshr&fbclid=IwAR2rqu5sQ_UVUB-3A9RaOrfHP1_IVt7J692gLe4pZX7yxfpee3fjBSvCKUQ

Basically Labour was building a new county council HQ, replacing the mid 20th century concrete monstrosity on the outskirts of Durham; too big for current needs, costs a fortune to maintain, falling apart, etc....
To replace this construction is nearly complete with a new smaller HQ in the city centre.

But....Ignorant fuckwits seem to think there's some evil conspiracy at work here. When news came out about the plan to have a roof-top terrace on the new building there was outrage at this meaning there'd be massive spending on cocktail parties and prawn sandwiches and other ignorant populist cage rattling. The Tories seized on this and made attacking the new HQ a centre-piece of the local elections.

But they've done an investigation and surprise surprise there was nothing dodgy going on, the old HQ wasn't fit for purposes. Now they're talking about building a whole new HQ, the 3rd one, and renting out the soon to be completed new one.

[Sheilbh]

Re. energy crisis - it's good news that Kwasi Kwarteng is apparently strong in favour of building a new nuclear power plant at Wylfa and pushing this through.

But I'd note that in 2010 it was announced the current site was being shut down. It was defuelled by 2019 and in the last decade there have been multiple proposals to build a new plant there that have fallen apart over funding issues/government not really being willing to invest. Now obviously I think the talk is of the government taking on the entire cost to build a plant by 2030.

On a one off basis I don't think Wylfa is a cause of anything that significant - but I basically think that sort of clearly obvious oncoming problem and a decade of dithering describes a huge chunk, if not most of British policy making and in more than just the energy sector It also strikes me as very Treasury that we got in an argument of a smaller amount of support to get the plant built so the entire thing got cancelled and now we need to fund the entire thing at (from my understanding) four times the cost because apparently net zero is a thing and we're trying to reduce our carbon emissions Again indicative of so much policy - we stop spending money that is incredibly effective at reducing rough sleeping and that's a saving for a while until 5-10 years down the line when there's huge costs of the homelessness crisis in A&Es on repeat on every issue

Separately people are panic buying petrol while government ministers scream "THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE!" This is down to the HGV driver shortage from my understanding and, technically, they're right there is no fuel shortage but it's a bit like supermarkets at the start of covid all over again. It feels like there's a lot of things piling up now and the government might end up in a lot of problems (or maybe it'll be like the 2000-01 fuel protests/shortages? ).

As I say Britain in the 2000s: well, well, well if it isn't the consequences of my actions.