Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

It doesn't! It's from the industry association:

Tesco is among firms that are offering incentives of £1,000 or more to lure HGV drivers to work for it. Rod McKenzie of the Road Haulage Association said firms were offering "big bucks" and signing-on fees to drivers. "This is a real problem because all they are doing is buying talent from somewhere else. They are not creating talent," he said.

"We may be paying them more, which is a good thing, but we need new drivers. My challenge to the companies is: why not spend some money on recruiting and training new drivers?"

So I don't disagree with the second point about those companies spending some money on recruiting/training new drivers - and I think government has a role here. There's clearly demand - I'd offer subsidised or free HGV training courses for anyone who wants it.

But the "big bucks" and "just buying talent from somewhere else" is basically a complaint someone could make about the transition from serfdom to wage labour: "pls - do not tempt our underpaid workers away"

I think one of the huge issues with supply chains in the UK is the incredible and brutal power of the supermarkets - which is part of the reason we pay far below the European average for food. That is the bit that makes my "just pay them more" view difficult because the supermarkets are incredibly powerful and absolutely rinse their suppliers so it will be really difficult to pass costs on to them (and us) at this stage. My view is the supermarkets will treat this as a temporary covid/Brexit pinch point for as long as they can and I don't think they will move commercially on their very aggressive pricing terms until they are basically in a position where the choice is: move on that (allowing higher wages/costs further down the supply chain) or face shortages that will actually cause them business problems.

I think the interesting thing is that I read about hauliers basically running a list of supermarkets by preference based on how flexible they're being around some issues - so especially key is if the supermarket is sticking to their terms on late deliveries and charging hauliers or deducting from their fees for late deliveries. I think I read that Lidl is the least popular and having issues getting hauliers to do their jobs because they will not move on their ability to deduct/charge for late deliveries.

I remember supermarkets using their dominating position to stifle supplier profits used to be a common complaint in Hungary as well. I appreciate it's not making running those supplier businesses easy but there's a hell of a lot more (end) customers than suppliers so I don't really mind.

[The Larch]

Taken from Twitter, seen at a British supermarket:



I can assure you that we're definitely above water.

[Sheilbh]

Taken from Twitter, seen at a British supermarket:

I can assure you that we're definitely above water.

Apparently that photo was first a thing in 2017 when it was an issue:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38851097

I normally feel like 90% of photos like that are either old and being re-purposed or fake

I remember supermarkets using their dominating position to stifle supplier profits used to be a common complaint in Hungary as well. I appreciate it's not making running those supplier businesses easy but there's a hell of a lot more (end) customers than suppliers so I don't really mind.

Yeah - I think there's been a lot of stuff about it in the UK because we have a pretty competitive supermarket model (as I say food prices are well below the European average) from a consumer perspective. But driving the discounting of supermarkets is very ruthless cost controls etc on suppliers and hauliers. Our entire economy is focused on end consumers and especially on price as the key factor. I feel like we probably need a slightly more expensive economy (with wage pressure as well) that is a little more sustainable and a little more weighted to producers/manufacturers/distributers and employees and not so heavily weighted to consumers only.

[Richard Hakluyt]

There is a lot of fake news about. I was in the NE last week and their shops had no shortages, the same as in Preston.

I think we might get in trouble if a panic-buying binge happened but there do not appear to be any systemic shortages as yet.

[Agelastus]

Is there any way to know this photo was taken now and not back in January?

[Edit: Took me too long looking at the wholesaler's website and for old news stories.]

Anyway, this fresh food wholesaler (https://www.freshdirect.co.uk/crop-report/#) is listing the following issues for the four items they have as "red" -

Lamb's Lettuce - "affected by the heat in Italy".

Cucumbers - "the replanting of our Summer Spanish crops continues".

Catering Cherry Tomato - if I read it correctly they are running out of the last crop of the year 2 weeks ahead of the new one coming in (from Spain.)

And , to be complete -

Cranberries - out of season

[Tamas]

Yeah - I think there's been a lot of stuff about it in the UK because we have a pretty competitive supermarket model (as I say food prices are well below the European average) from a consumer perspective. But driving the discounting of supermarkets is very ruthless cost controls etc on suppliers and hauliers. Our entire economy is focused on end consumers and especially on price as the key factor. I feel like we probably need a slightly more expensive economy (with wage pressure as well) that is a little more sustainable and a little more weighted to producers/manufacturers/distributers and employees and not so heavily weighted to consumers only.

Possibly, but I am not convinced. Absolutely everyone is an end consumer, their interests should come before the profit levels of suppliers. It's one of those areas where the free market can take care of itself if let. e.g. while we had a massive pool of workers from the EU, drivers were cheaper but that was only worse for specifically British drivers - the East Europeans got a better deal, and the consumers got a better deal. Now we have created a much smaller jobs market and the drivers are benefiting and the consumer will have a comparative disadvantage, unless free market pressures (of competition) force the suppliers and supermarkets to slash their profits to keep end consumer prices at current levels.


And yeah on general hysteria about shortages - there definitely seem to be one - I went to pick up bottled water middle of last week and the big local Sainsburys was absolutely and utterly out of it, and for the weekend order they ended up replacing our cheap option with some more expensive one (the difference in effect is paid by them as they give you a coupon for the difference) due to lack of availability. But, I recon all these suppliers and supermarkets facing a skyrocketing bill for HVG drivers are very much interested in fueling the fire of panic, hoping for government intervention saving their profits.

[Sheilbh]

There is a lot of fake news about. I was in the NE last week and their shops had no shortages, the same as in Preston.

I think we might get in trouble if a panic-buying binge happened but there do not appear to be any systemic shortages as yet.

There are clearly issues it is more than anecdote - but I still haven't seen it.

I saw a really interesting thread yesterday basically saying that the first sign (after perishables) will be sort of second-tier booze. If there are really supply issues the supermarkets will prioritise the big brands that reliably take up a lot of space and can do BOGOF offers (which are a huge cash cow) - so if the nice beer starts to disapper from the shelves and we've just got lots of Fosters etc, that's a sign there's a big problem in the background and the supermarkets are having to prioritise.

There is vast amounts of fake news and yeah these very on the nose photos that do the rounds on Twitter are particularly common - and I find it really annoying because it is basically a both sides issue whenever I see it. Just on the one hand there's the people who shout "fake news" about everything while gleefully sharing fake news, on the other there's people who stroke their chins reading pieces about the dangers of "misinformation" while sharing misinformation that aligns with their biases And sometimes it's harmless but still weird - like the "flower Macron" picture that did the rounds last week was a Photoshop and it was quite funny but I saw legit journalists sharing it without flagging that it's a Photoshop. It's just weird.

The guy with the supply chain thread also went into the really interesting story - which I had no idea of - of the extreme measures Britain took to avoid significant rations on tea during the war (including, in one year, buying the entire global supply of tea ). Apparently the Ministry of Food had worked with one of those Mass Observation things to work out what people were most sensitive about being rationed/shortages - and tea was top of the list so it was a huge priority from a morale perspective.

[Sheilbh]

Possibly, but I am not convinced. Absolutely everyone is an end consumer, their interests should come before the profit levels of suppliers.

But I'm not talking about profit levels - but sustainability. The profit level might be fine but (as is the case) the supermarkets are so aggressive on paying their invoices late and taking full advantage of all service credits for minor non-performance or failure (I'm not sure what service credit is in this type of sector) that it has a real effect on the cash flow of suppliers which is essential for the rest of the economy. I mean the issues I've seen suppliers complain about aren't even necessarily to do with their profits - it's things like the supermarkets (because they have a lot of power in some sectors) wanting shorter term contracts with lots of abilities to re-negotiate, they want freedom to adjust the amount they order to reflect demand but an absolutely commitment to deliver by the supplier etc. It's just generally - in some sectors - a very unequal negotiation.

There's less of an issue with the big conglomerates obviously - your Unilevers, P&G etc have leverage of their own.

Similarly the suppliers and the middle-men the contractors doing the distribution do need to make a margin and if their costs are increasing there needs to be some recognition of that from the supermarkets even if the margin isn't very good for the supplier.

It's one of those areas where the free market can take care of itself if let. e.g. while we had a massive pool of workers from the EU, drivers were cheaper but that was only worse for specifically British drivers - the East Europeans got a better deal, and the consumers got a better deal.

I don't totally agree with that way of framing it. But I don't think things are just bad/worse for "specifically British people doing x job" - I think it has a knock on effect in the wider British labour market and, because of our relatively hands off and consumer-focused where the primary goal is to reduce costs co consumers, a race to the bottom in the wider labour market.

And yeah on general hysteria about shortages - there definitely seem to be one - I went to pick up bottled water middle of last week and the big local Sainsburys was absolutely and utterly out of it, and for the weekend order they ended up replacing our cheap option with some more expensive one (the difference in effect is paid by them as they give you a coupon for the difference) due to lack of availability. But, I recon all these suppliers and supermarkets facing a skyrocketing bill for HVG drivers are very much interested in fueling the fire of panic, hoping for government intervention saving their profits.

Agreed. And as I say I hope the unions take advantage of the crisis - labour unions advance through crises and I hope they're organising and I hope they consider industrial action. I think work to rule would be incredibly effective in this sector.

[Josquius]

British supermarkets competitive... I think its a yes and no there. Its a while since the baked bean wars. They're obviously in competition with each other but it very much seems a gentlemanly friendly rivalry these days where they will all agree not to rock the boat by paying outside the standard et al.

There is a lot of fake news about. I was in the NE last week and their shops had no shortages, the same as in Preston.

I think we might get in trouble if a panic-buying binge happened but there do not appear to be any systemic shortages as yet.

I'm seeing it in Newcastle. Not on the whole aisles empty level of some photos I've seen but definitely weird random items going missing for a long time.
Beyond supermarkets ikea is struggling with it too I know.

[Sheilbh]

British supermarkets competitive... I think its a yes and no there. Its a while since the baked bean wars. They're obviously in competition with each other but it very much seems a gentlemanly friendly rivalry these days where they will all agree not to rock the boat by paying outside the standard et al.

I don't know - I think they seem all pretty shaken and watching over the shoulder about Lidl and Aldi?

If they're pitch is that they're affordable.

[garbon]

@Shielbh, did we never discuss this case? I can't believe Met is now trying to get rid of her after tribunal made them reinstate her.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-58072822

Robyn Williams: Met Police takes legal action over officer's reinstatement

The Met Police is trying to dismiss a highly decorated officer who was reinstated on appeal after being sacked for possessing a child abuse video.

In November 2019, Supt Robyn Williams was sentenced to community service for having the clip on her phone. She was dismissed by the Met four months later.

A Police Appeals Tribunal called her sacking "unfair" and "unreasonable".

However, the Met said it had decided to "instigate judicial review proceedings" over the officer's reinstatement.

The independent panel concluded in June that "a flawed structure" had led the force to sack 56-year-old Ms Williams after her conviction for possessing an indecent image of a child. It determined that her dismissal should be replaced with a final written warning, clearing her to return to work.

Ms Williams' trial heard she received the video via WhatsApp from her sister who had been sent the clip by her boyfriend.

The officer said she had not viewed the 54-second video and did not know it was on her phone.

But prosecutors said there was no way she could have missed it, and cited a response from the officer to her older sister to "please call" as evidence she wanted to discuss the content.

The jury was told experts had not been able to examine Ms Williams' phone properly.

She was sacked by the Met after a special disciplinary hearing concluded her behaviour amounted to gross misconduct.

The Met found that Ms Williams' actions were likely to undermine public confidence and had not been a "trivial lapse".

In a statement, the Met questioned the judgment of the Police Appeal Tribunals (PAT).

It said: "The PAT has made findings in two separate cases that overturned carefully considered decisions to dismiss officers from the Metropolitan Police, which had been made in special case hearings following criminal convictions.

"The special case hearings had deemed that the convictions amount to gross misconduct, and that the officers should be dismissed. In both cases the PAT did not agree with these findings and replaced the officers' dismissals with a final written warning."

The identity of the other police officer has not been revealed.

[Sheilbh]

I don't think we've discussed it as I don't think I've read about it before.

But agreed - and I'd like to point out a tiny irony that the government's proposed reforms of judicial review (which are actually pretty limited and not the huge threat to the judiciary that people were freaking out about) would remove the ability to get a judicial review of a tribunal's decision

Although looking at that link it looks like there's a lot of bad blood going on there. She was prosecuted and sentenced to 200 hours of community service, then she appealed (and lost). She went to the tribunal over her dismissal (and won) and now they're trying to get judicial review of that decision. I don't want to get conspiracy minded here - but it feels like someone wants her out and I would wonder why. The whole thing seems weird and very shady. I think there's definitely an issue of institutional racism in terms of how they've approached the case when I read back to the initial prosecution - but it almost seems a bit personal (and frankly a bit Line of Duty) in the way this whole scenario came into play.

[garbon]

I don't think we've discussed it as I don't think I've read about it before.

Ah its been such a hot topic discussion for me I was surprised I'd never brought it up.

But agreed - and I'd like to point out a tiny irony that the government's proposed reforms of judicial review (which are actually pretty limited and not the huge threat to the judiciary that people were freaking out about) would remove the ability to get a judicial review of a tribunal's decision

Haha.

Although looking at that link it looks like there's a lot of bad blood going on there. She was prosecuted and sentenced to 200 hours of community service, then she appealed (and lost). She went to the tribunal over her dismissal (and won) and now they're trying to get judicial review of that decision. I don't want to get conspiracy minded here - but it feels like someone wants her out and I would wonder why. The whole thing seems weird and very shady. I think there's definitely an issue of institutional racism in terms of how they've approached the case when I read back to the initial prosecution - but it almost seems a bit personal (and frankly a bit Line of Duty) in the way this whole scenario came into play.

Yeah, I mean she definitely played things wrong. Sister sent her illegal image and then trying not do rat on sister she just sat on it tell basically caught, but also clear that it wasn't in vein of being an actual sex offender. Then add in that she was actually seen as a positive face for police with black community.  I'm sort of surprised that the police would want to launch this back into the headlines apart from perhaps difficulty of being a police organisation and employing a registered sex offender. That feels more bureaucratic though and not a reason to launch back into stories about instituional racism in the Met.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, I mean she definitely played things wrong. Sister sent her illegal image and then trying not do rat on sister she just sat on it tell basically caught, but also clear that it wasn't in vein of being an actual sex offender. Then add in that she was actually seen as a positive face for police with black community.  I'm sort of surprised that the police would want to launch this back into the headlines apart from perhaps difficulty of being a police organisation and employing a registered sex offender. That feels more bureaucratic though and not a reason to launch back into stories about instituional racism in the Met.

Yeah - and I wonder if there was a mandatory element here. Because looking at the story - the judge absolutely acknowledged there was no sexual aspect to her crime and she posed no risk. But it may be that if you are convicted you need to go on the sex offenders register. I don't know if that's how it works and maybe it should be because it would perhaps be dangerous to give the courts discretion based on who they assess does or doesn't pose a risk. You can easily see it causing a furore when a genuine paedophile re-offends and they weren't on the sex offenders because the court decided they didn't.

But from the article I read firing her is discretionary and she breached one item of professional standards and I think you can legitimately point to a failure or a lapse of judgement when there's a one-off and really weird situation like this. I know I always mention it but - Dame Cressida Dick is the Commissioner of the Met and she was Gold Commander during the shooting of Jean-Charles de Menezes, which the police attempted to cover (and there is no way that would be possible without her complicity at least). But she's continued to the very top of the organisation which I think is an absolute disgrace. And in part that's why I wonder if institutional racism was a factor - it was one strike and you're out for one officer, while the other failed upwards.

I'm not sure if it is bureaucratic - I wonder if it is almost personal now because Williams appealed, she resisted being fired and then took them to the tribunal etc. It may just be breaucratic but I wonder if there is almost personal bad blood on this which is why they are fighting it and using every route of appeal they get?

[viper37]

I don't think we've discussed it as I don't think I've read about it before.

I'm positive it's been discussed on Languish, though.  So Garbon is not hallucinating, at least