Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

I am always skeptical about such rose tinted glasses. Sure maybe job security in unskilled unhealthy shitty backbreaking jobs was better than nowadays, but I don't think it is a coincidence that those who remember a time being better always happen to have those years as the prime of their youth.

[Sheilbh]

It was nationalist in the sense that it was motivated by wanting to keep immigrants out.

For sure - nationalist in the normal sense and wider.

But I think immigration may be interesting because it's unchanged at a net level. Support has increased and the importance of immigration as an issue that people are worried about has fallen. I have no doubt that ghouls like Farage will keep roaming around the south coast trying to escalate the issue but it hasn't actually re-ignited as an issue. This is despite some (very welcome) liberalisations by the government - obviously there's the Hong Kong thing, they've relaxed the rules on students and they've just published plans to create new easier visas including one for any graduate of a "top university" (to be defined) globally to come to the UK without any job offer etc.

I think this is an area where "take back control" isn't just a slogan. From the polling people seem more relaxed and comfortable with immigration because it is within the "control" of the British state (and politics), rather than "out of control" or operating by right under European law.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the unity after the wars factor. The left was really weird on this point, though the leaders of the left were very much against Europe, seeing it as some neo liberal club to exploit the working man, there was a lot more sympathy from the bottom level. Kind of the opposite of todays situation really.[...]
It is known that it was the unions that flipped politics from the left=brexit right=remain state it had been pre 1988 though its curious to see quite how strongly this could be seen even in the 70s and it wasn't something the unions were new to. Rather than flipping their stance its more they started pushing it strongly.

Maybe I just slightly wonder how much the UK, especially in those years, felt a part of "Europe" as opposed to an external party.

It's not unique - in Switzerland the unions are very opposed to integration with Europe because they fear it would be used by bosses to undermine their very generous protections (still based on a framework negotiated in the 1930s). I also wonder if there's a cold war v radical union thing going on as well - so cold war unions who were more politically aware and "centrist" were maybe more pro-Europe? I was just thinking that to this day the NUM and RMT and I think FBU who are probably the most radical unions (under Bob Crow and Scargill etc) were fiercely anti-Europe, as with Benn because they thought it would stop them from pushing the final struggle against capitalism.

And part of the framing of joining the Common Market was that Britain was fat and lazy and needed to be subject to market disciplines from Europe - that was a fair description of the situation Then in the 80s Thatcher used Europe to almost lock-in certain of her policy views through the single market but also things like controls on state aid. The left criticism of Europe in the 70s , I think turned out to be broadly accurate - but I don't think it outweighed the benefits.

Fair points on many wanting to bring the 60s back. The days where if you wanted a job you could walk into one at the factory within minutes and a general air of positivity and progress. Though I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the imperialist nostalgia side as well.

I think it's a part - I think it's a smaller part than it was in 1975. Although I am aware that the imperial nostalgia is probably stronger in me and other remainers who cared about things like "Britain's place in the world"/"punching above our weight"/"Great Britain not Little England".

The weird thing is I think for older people in 1975 who remembered empire, I wonder if joining the EEC was possibly in part because of a desire to have more of a role for Britain in the world after empire. There was an argument that it would move us closer to the "centre of power" and give us more of a stronger voice. And perhaps from the perspective of someone older seeing us go through numerous Sterling crises and balance of payments crises and constant industrial relations crises - I wonder if the EEC was a way for those voters to "take back control" from the perceived chaos of the 70s?

I really don't get the impression that people want the UK to be a normal state. The idea of British exceptionalism is strong. There is this huge impression that we are a lot stronger than we are, that negotiations with the EU are of two equal sides.

I think "British exceptionalism" matters less than "British parochialism". I don't think the UK is that exceptional - there are points that are distinctive (as is the case with every country or national political culture) - but fundamentally a lot of the issues in British politics and a lot of the opinions are ones that are happening across Europe and, arguably, also in the US. The big issues are the same across Europe - systemic decline of the left, the rise of green politics, the rise of a populist/far-right, misinformation/social media platforms/tech (almost entirely American or Chinese in origin) and challenges of historically quite white and non-diverse countries becoming more diverse and having more immigration from outside of Europe.

What I think is true is that the UK media and politicians are basically incredibly ignorant of the rest of Europe and don't care, they're very self-involved (this was a constant irritation with Brexit and the pandemic - that they are reported as a "Westminster" story) and to the extent they are interested in the rest of the world it's the US (and Australia). I don't think it's from any particular sense of British exceptionalism but our laziness in learning languages and that we're in the American cultural sphere - so that's where we look. I've always found it crazy how many articles you'll read about like "who is Britain's Biden/Buttigieg" or how Australian political consultants are re-shaping British politics (Cameron, Vote Leave and Johnson all have Aussies in their senior campaign teams) but never anything like that about European politics despite the fact that they will have more

I still don't know what not negotiating as two equal sides looks like - the only thing I can think of recently is Trump who loves sycophancy. Even on that is there really exceptionalism? Look at Switzerland when it deals with the EU from a far weaker position; or if you're just focusing on peripheral European states with an imperial heritage - look at Russia or Turkey.

I am always skeptical about such rose tinted glasses. Sure maybe job security in unskilled unhealthy shitty backbreaking jobs was better than nowadays, but I don't think it is a coincidence that those who remember a time being better always happen to have those years as the prime of their youth.

For sure - I think it's a big driver for Gove and Johnson's politics. Of course in their youth there was an incredibly divisive, combative Tory government, a weak opposition in crisis and riven with factional splits, and a very aggressive and overbearing centralised British state (in the words of Thatcher's chief of staff they were "Leninists" in their view on the role of the centre in driving change) limiting the roles of the court and devolved local administrations

[Tamas]

But I think immigration may be interesting because it's unchanged at a net level. Support has increased and the importance of immigration as an issue that people are worried about has fallen.

Well, I mean of course. Pro-Brexit Tory press don't need to beat the drums anymore, and we have left the EU.

I expect it will return as an issue once the replenishing of cheap workforce from Asia will gather speed.

[Sheilbh]

Well, I mean of course. Pro-Brexit Tory press don't need to beat the drums anymore, and we have left the EU.

I expect it will return as an issue once the replenishing of cheap workforce from Asia will gather speed.

Maybe - I think there's definitely a bit risk round the papers.

There's always been pretty consistent support for high skilled, highly educated immigration or immigration in key sectors like the NHS. That seems to be the focus of these policies - which are good, it's always good to see any liberalisation on immigration rules (though it still relies on the Home Office for enforcement so...). So they've relaxed student visa rules which have been getting tighter for the last decade, there's the open visa for graduates of certain universities (tbd), they're also changing the entrepreneur's visa so it isn't basically something rich people can buy but is instead linked to growth of employment in your SME (not perfect but better). It aligns with what public opinion says so it may be fine - and obviously Hong Kong is slightly different because that's a moral issue but again had broad public support.

But I think some blue tick Remainer/FBPE voices maybe need to watch their tone on this because they're response to more relaxed immigration rules (which is a good thing!) has not been great. I saw Denis MacShane (former Europe minister and MP imprisoned for fraud over his expenses) say about the graduate visa that it would mean British students who'd worked really hard would have more competition for good, well-paid jobs - which is basically "immigrants stealing our jobs" but progressive, somehow. There was a tweet by one of the innumerable QCs with opinions about how the UK was doing this all wrong because they should be trying to keep highly skilled jobs for ourselves and seeking to expand the low-paid/low-skilled roles for immigrants - which is basically that Leaver caricature of a well-to-do person who likes free movement because it makes hiring a nanny cheaper

Any liberalisation on immigration is unexpected and good - hopefully it lasts.

One thing Guardian reader-commentators highlighted (many of them don't like the Guardian taking the pingdemic explanation at face value) was that Scotland has no pingdemic but does have shortages.

I'm fairly sure that's bullshit from an English person

A very quick Google search brings back stories from Scottish papers like the Herald or the Record about similar issues in Scotland. The NHS Scotland app is slightly less sensitive but not so much that it makes a huge difference (it's the standard SNP pandemic response: it's slightly different from what exists in England but not much, same as "test and protect" not "test and trace" ). What is probably making a bigger difference is that Scottish cases started falling earlier and are half what they were during their summer peak so there are fewer pings because there are fewer covid cases and covid is less prevalent than in England .

On hauliers interesting bit on the BBC:

Tesco offers £1,000 joining bonus for HGV lorry drivers
By Michael Race
BBC Business Reporter

Tesco is offering lorry drivers a £1,000 joining bonus amid a chronic shortage of drivers in the industry.

The supermarket giant has deployed the recruitment incentive for candidates who join before 30 September.

Other companies are also understood to be offering similar incentives for HGV drivers after disruption to supply chains led to product shortages.

The Road Haulage Association (RHA) has estimated there is a 100,000 shortage in HGV drivers across the UK.

The industry body has said some 30,000 HGV driving tests did not take place last year because of the coronavirus pandemic, and added a "historic" shortage in drivers had been exacerbated by changes to rules following Brexit.

More recently, drivers being told to self-isolate after being notified by the NHS Covid app is also adding to the problem.

A lack of drivers has led to supermarket suffering shortages of particular brands, while oil firm BP was forced to temporarily close a "handful" of its UK sites due to shortages in unleaded petrol and diesel being delivered.

Councillor James Jamieson, chair of the Local Government Association, said several councils had been forced to suspend garden waste collections because of the lack of drivers.

In Sutton and Croydon delays to bin collections could last until the autumn, the Local Democracy Reporting Service said.

A spokesperson for Veolia, the company operating the service for the councils, said: "This challenging situation is likely to continue for some time, and we are working hard together to address the problem and hope to see improvements to the service by the autumn."

'Problem not getting better'

Rod McKenzie, managing director of the RHA, said it was becoming "increasingly competitive" to recruit a "a diminishing number of HGV drivers", which he added had also driven up wages.

Mr McKenzie said he appreciated the "difficulties" caused by the pandemic but urged the government to "speed up" driving tests. He said it currently takes about six months to fully train a HGV driver.

"We are not seeing any sign of it getting better in the short term," he added.

Mr McKenzie said a "package of measures" was required to tackle driver shortages, which included conducting more tests and creating short-term visas for drivers from overseas to work in the UK.

Alex Veitch, general manager of public policy at Logistics UK, said incentives being offered by Tesco and other businesses were "obviously the law of supply and demand at work, given the current shortage of HGV drivers".

'Only 1% of HGV drivers are women'

To address driver shortages, wholesale food and catering supplier JJ Foodservice is aiming to fill the gap by broadening its talent pool.

The company has launched a recruitment campaign to encourage more women to become HGV drivers.

"Only 1% of HGV drivers in the UK are women - we want to help change that," said JJ's HR manager, Joanna Florczak.

The wholesaler said it was offering "permanent contracts with no evenings or weekends, salaries of up to £35K in London, and no gender pay gap".

Kaan Hendekli, head of operations at JJ Foodservice, said the company was also using women in recruitment adverts and highlighting "support with wellbeing, which you might not associate with traditional HGV driver ads".

"The UK driver shortage is not going to go away overnight, so we're doing our part to make HGV driver roles more appealing to a wider diversity of people," he added.

To reduce demand on the company's existing drivers, the wholesaler if offering savings for customers who collect their orders instead of having them delivered.

The RHA has called on ministers to put HGV drivers on the Home Office Shortage Occupation List.

In response to HGV driver shortages, the government recently granted a temporary extension of lorry drivers' working hours.

In a letter to the logistics sector, government ministers said they would consult about "the delegation of off-road manoeuvres" as part of the HGV test, which they said would boost testing capacity.

It added the Department for Transport would also look to into issuing provisional licences to drive rigid and articulated lorries.

I agree they need help with testing which would have been really impacted by covid (I know someone who had a similar situation with their driving test). But aside from that it still seems like a lot of special pleading to increase supply. Not sure how competitive the JJ contract is (and pay and benefits are better than a one off signing benefit) but offering that sort of contract seems good - I don't know the market enough to judge but I feel like the no weekends/no evenings would be welcome.

I really hope the unions are actively canvassing hauliers for new members so they can exert some organised pressure.

[Tamas]

There's always been pretty consistent support for high skilled, highly educated immigration or immigration in key sectors like the NHS.

Not to be dismissing your thoughtful post with a soundbite, but people were never against "good immigrants". It's always the bad/useless/job taking ones they imagine which they dislike/hate. The end result is the same.

[Tamas]

On the HGV drivers: perhaps they could pay them reasonable wages?

Isn't this what we wanted Brexit for? So that cheap labour could not be imported to supress wages?

[Sheilbh]

On the HGV drivers: perhaps they could pay them reasonable wages?

Isn't this what we wanted Brexit for? So that cheap labour could not be imported to supress wages?

Well exactly. Ijust always get annoyed at companies who accept that if there's a shortage you pay more in every realm of their business and the economy - except employment where they start special pleading

Related to the golf course chat - some absolutely batshit stuff on planning/building new properties. First of all Sadiq has blocked the development of this bit of light industry into 1,200 properties - overruling the GLA planners:

Charles Wright
@CharlesWright57
Development plans for former Stag Brewery site in Mortlake rejected by @MayorofLondon after public hearing. Increased affordable housing on 1,250 home scheme did not outweigh the harm of excessive height and density, @SadiqKhan rules #StagBrewery
Mayoral decision goes against GLA planners' recommendation to approve. 30% affordable on offer not enough, while the scheme's height and massing would "adversely affect the arcadian and open character of the area", Khan says. A different approach needed, he says. #StagBrewery

Arcadian

Meanwhile I saw in Chichester (I think - something like that) the Tory MP and Lib Dem council fighting over who could most strongly protect a disused church hall built twenty years ago and surrounding car park from being developed into housing to preserve the character of the area - which, is presumably, tarmacced

There is nothing that makes me support a brutal turn to authoritarianism like all our democratic parties collaborating in a massive failure to build any housing And while I generally think we need to build on the Green Belts it is challenging to justify when we can't even agree to build on a car park.

Edit: Sorry Harrow - and here's the sacred car park that needs protecting:


Edit: And the proposal was to turn it into about 200 houses - the marketing bumph (basically just standard New London Vernacular):

[Sheilbh]

So this is very niche - but especially given the last year I found this thread (from the excellent Labour history focused Twitter account: https://twitter.com/labour_history) on the "Thatcher's a hoarder" scandal in the 70s. Also a reminder of how weird British politics in the 70s was from our post-Thatcher/more liberal perspective - and a bit of context of why Thatcher won, perhaps because the 70s were so shit in this country

I've mentioned before but I love watching Fanny Craddock cooking shows for the unhinged camp horror of them but they also just present an incredibly grim world. The number of times she mentions how good marg is and that it's really very good because she knows how expensive butter is and appreciates that most people can't afford to spend that sort of money

Tides Of History
@labour_history
'Thatcher The Stockpiler'

How Margaret Thatcher's larder and British attitudes towards food hoarding almost ended her bid to be Tory leader

A thread

In September 1974, Thatcher gave an interview to Pre-Retirement Choice magazine about her shopping habits in the era of high inflation.
She told them of her top tips for housewives:

'I, for the first time in my life have started steadily buying things like tinned food.'
She told readers to stock up on protein such as 'ham, tongue, salmon, mackerel, sardines' - and tinned fruits because a 'sugar shortage will eventually work through to tinned fruit'.
She pointed to the sharp price rise in honey and sought value in tinned ham in comparison to wages

'£2000 a year might not be worth much but a tin of ham is still a tin of ham'
Two months later, Thatcher challenged Heath for the Tory leadership.

Heath's campaign managers tried to organise a smear against her by alluding to her hoarding
Dennis Skinner accused her of "filching little tins of salmon from supermarkets and taking them out of the pensioners' mouths."

He asked Mr Wilson to extend the wealth tax to include food hoarders.
Thatcher went on the attack by 'flinging wide the door of her larder'

'I resent being called a hoarder'

'And to prove that she isn't, she listed the contents of her stockpile'

Mrs Thatcher's reply to them all: 'I have been misunderstood, badly misunderstood.'

'I resent being called a hoarder'

'I urged people to look to the future, and I think that this policy is a sound one. I am astonished at the criticism that greeted the article. Absolutely astonished!'
'I keep a good stock of food at home for several reasons. The main one is that with prices shooting up, it seems to me to be an eminently prudent piece of housekeeping'
'And when we use up a tin of salmon or a jar of marmalade I tend to buy two more. It is all a case of gradually, steadily building up a comfortable supply.'
The Express reported that her best buy has been Bovril. 'I paid 91p a 1lb. jar and now it would cost well over a pound.'
Mrs Thatcher declared that spending money in this way was much better than on bingo or smoking and hat she estimated that her profit from long-term shopping was about 3p or 4p a tin.
'Sometimes I cannot get to the shops but when I do I take notice of special offers. When I see an offer, I snap it up'
However there remained much criticism of her for doing so. The National Housewives' Association – a 20,000 strong body claimed

'We are horrified and we plan to visit Mrs Thatcher and tell her so'

'She is setting a very bad example to the country's women. It creates a feeling of panic and unsettles people.'

'We will demand that she gives her tinned goods to pensioners'
A senior lecturer in chemistry at Birmingham University warned:

'The gravity of this should be appreciated by Mrs Thatcher, who has a degree in chemistry from Oxford. She more than anyone else, should realise the very real dangers of storing tinned food for long periods.'
However, the president of Tesco's, backed Mrs Thatcher's policy of stocking up:

He said: 'The price of canned food—fruit, salmon, and so on—will go up double as soon as present stocks run out. I think Mrs Thatcher is very sensible'
When, during a Commons debate Chancellor Denis Healey said she should 'hoard the lot' in relation to public spending, she replied:

'I am not as successful as the Chancellor at hoarding houses. If I could, I would'

END

Also I think it kind of gets to the very socialist/left legacy of the war - I can't read that and not think that there's some large element that is based on people's experiences with rationing (which went on until the 50s). The idea that by buying more you're taking away from someone and almost cheating the system is I think directly from rationing. It's a bit like how I think part of the reason the NHS is so loved is because it is the last institution standing from that "we're all in it together" national struggle myth/feeling, and also (in the public imagination) the sort of last centrally commanded institution from the war days when there was a Minister for Food, Minister for Health, Minister for Mining  who would basically run that sector.

Edit: And plus ca change on a tabloid covering a lefty actor disrespecting Churchill

Edit: And I don't think there's a more terrifyingly 1970s couple of words than: "salmon mousse"

[The Brain]

What a bizarre era.

[garbon]

Wow what a scandal. Atrocious!

[Josquius]

Must be noted, all this stuff came about under the torys watch. Albeit largely for reasons that were beyond Britain's control.
Which is an interesting parallel for today really. Labour spends years buildings things up, tories come in and wreck it, Labour gets the blame.

[garbon]

I'm starting to feel like Labour doesn't want to ever exit lockdown now that they are attacking the notion of letting double vaxxed people from US/EU into the country without quarantine.

[Sheilbh]

I'm starting to feel like Labour doesn't want to ever exit lockdown now that they are attacking the notion of letting double vaxxed people from US/EU into the country without quarantine.

They also came out against sports bodies using vaccine passports because it's not safe enough/as safe as testing.

And I can sort of see an argument against mandated domestic vaccine passports (though I've changed my mind on this). But taken together I really can't work out their thinking on this except, as you say, just never ending restrictions/lockdown.

As AR has pointed out this sort of approach is, I think, also quite negative to vaccines in a dodgy way

Edit: I think it's fine to oppose lifting restrictions or ending lockdown. It's fine to have concerns around that. But I think, unlike before, vaccines have changed the situation and you need to also explain what are the triggers where you would lift restrictions or what your proposed route out of lockdown is - and Labour are missing that (beyond fitting new ventilation everywhere). I really do struggle with the position they're taking on this - some of this just feels like opposition for the sake of it (and maybe on parts of Labour Twitter will be like "finally, some opposition from Starmer" but I think the rest of the country will look on baffled by it).

[garbon]

I'm starting to feel like Labour doesn't want to ever exit lockdown now that they are attacking the notion of letting double vaxxed people from US/EU into the country without quarantine.

They also came out against sports bodies using vaccine passports because it's not safe enough/as safe as testing.

And I can sort of see an argument against mandated domestic vaccine passports (though I've changed my mind on this). But taken together I really can't work out their thinking on this except, as you say, just never ending restrictions/lockdown.

As AR has pointed out this sort of approach is, I think, also quite negative to vaccines in a dodgy way

Edit: I think it's fine to oppose lifting restrictions or ending lockdown. It's fine to have concerns around that. But I think, unlike before, vaccines have changed the situation and you need to also explain what are the triggers where you would lift restrictions or what your proposed route out of lockdown is - and Labour are missing that (beyond fitting new ventilation everywhere). I really do struggle with the position they're taking on this - some of this just feels like opposition for the sake of it (and maybe on parts of Labour Twitter will be like "finally, some opposition from Starmer" but I think the rest of the country will look on baffled by it).

Yeah, I was certainly the COVID hermit and if even I struggle to see the sense in their policies feels like they are missing the mark with the wider country.

[Sheilbh]

"Even Garbon..."

Although I do get the concerns with the US a little more - I know this goes against the grain on the whole EU Settlement Scheme conversation - but I think there is a legitimate issue with US paper vaccine cards. In the EU-UK case you have a digital certificate of vaccination and it's a QR code that can be scanned and verified in some way. I think that is more difficult to see causing fraud - while with the US, I know in this country there has been a boom in eBay people selling fake lanyards to signify someone has a non-visible disability or some other medical documentation to exempt you from wearing a mask. It's only a minority but I understand there's something similar in the US so I would be a little bit more reticent around countries with just a little card saying "I'm vaccinated" v a digital certificate.