Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[garbon]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/jul/19/uk-covid-live-news-england-lifts-most-remaining-restrictions-as-poll-suggests-many-voters-see-it-as-wrong?page=with:block-60f52a9f8f085dcd6b592386#block-60f52a9f8f085dcd6b592386



In a YouGov poll for the times:

[The Brain]

Ah, the camera angle trick again. In reality there's just 5 people there.

[garbon]

Ah, the camera angle trick again. In reality there's just 5 people there.

I've been there, I can't imagine going to such a small, enclosed space right now.

And another celebration of freedom:
https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/nightclubs-open-heaven-london-reopening-freedom-day-london-1109913

[Josquius]

My mam was told by her boss to uninstall the covid app. Seems a lot of people are way ahead. I've avoided ever installing it. Being forced into isolation now as holiday time approaches is worrying.

Ah, the camera angle trick again. In reality there's just 5 people there.

I've been there, I can't imagine going to such a small, enclosed space right now.
img]

Nothing to do with corona of course :p

[garbon]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/jul/19/uk-covid-live-news-england-lifts-most-remaining-restrictions-as-poll-suggests-many-voters-see-it-as-wrong?page=with:block-60f539468f0814e7a316bdc1#block-60f539468f0814e7a316bdc1

Many business organisations are saying that their staff should be allowed to use daily testing as an alternative to isolation if they have been in contact with someone testing positive. This is the rule that now applies to health and social care staff (see 10.29am) - and would have applied to the PM if had chosen to take advantage of the pilot for this scheme covering Downing Street.

[garbon]

Nothing to do with corona of course :p

[Tamas]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/jul/19/uk-covid-live-news-england-lifts-most-remaining-restrictions-as-poll-suggests-many-voters-see-it-as-wrong?page=with:block-60f539468f0814e7a316bdc1#block-60f539468f0814e7a316bdc1

Many business organisations are saying that their staff should be allowed to use daily testing as an alternative to isolation if they have been in contact with someone testing positive. This is the rule that now applies to health and social care staff (see 10.29am) - and would have applied to the PM if had chosen to take advantage of the pilot for this scheme covering Downing Street.

This whole reopening thing is unraveling remarkably fast. I don't think the government will have many other choices than throwing the reins among the horses even more so than already (i.e. give up on the app-based isolation plans).

[Sheilbh]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/jul/19/uk-covid-live-news-england-lifts-most-remaining-restrictions-as-poll-suggests-many-voters-see-it-as-wrong?page=with:block-60f52a9f8f085dcd6b592386#block-60f52a9f8f085dcd6b592386

That's my fear - I think the row over masks is a sideshow in comparison to clubs and venues and hospitality re-opening with no social distancing requirements and no capacity caps.

My understanding is the Netherlands (where case numbers are extraordinary, I think they've already overtaken the UK, and, on Our World in Data, the new cases line is basically vertical) had re-opened clubs and found they were a huge vector in new cases. Having said that the government have basically pushed lots of responsibility onto the private sector - so they need to be doing (and recording) covid risk assessments and can restrict entry to only people with a vaccine certificate - so if the private sector uses those powers to their full effect it may not be quite like the Netherlands - but it is, of couse, not quite a "freedom day".

But I worry that after the year they've had and government support being withdrawn (the Treasury strikes again), the hospitality sector may not be particularly rigorous in using vaccine certificates or in their risk assessments.

The other point that I think just makes sense is mongers' - I don't see why they don't just delay this for a week until schools are closed (which may be why - as well as Luka Modric - Scotland appears to have peaked because school terms in Scotland are different).

In a YouGov poll for the times:

I am surprised support is that high. Apparently the government entirely shifted their rhetoric from "freedom day" to re-opening responsibly and guidance will still say to wear masks etc  because there was polling that said only 10% supported their policy - and I've read something similar that only 10% don't think we'll be seeing new restrictions again later this year.

But the politics within the Tory party is difficult and driving this now - although it is still really striking that what you could call sort of elite Leaver opinion has been consistently covid/lockdown sceptical (the Mail, Telegraph, Spectator etc) that really doesn't seem to have much of an impact on actual voters. The strongest support for lockdown measures are still older voters who generally vote Tory and voted Leave - it's one of the really striking differences with the US. People who are more opposed to restrictions are basically the AR constituency - young-ish, healthy-ish and willing to take a personal risk.

Also driving it is Johnson's own personal views - you know he doesn't like lockdown, he doesn't like travel/border restrictions. I saw lots of people over the weekend sharing this story from Cumming's evidence to the select committee:

Cummings says: "In July I said to [Johnson], 'Look, much of the media is insane, you've got all of these people running around saying there can't be a second wave, lockdowns don't work, and all this bullshit. No 10's got to be far more aggressive with these people and expose their arguments, and explain that some of the nonsense being peddled should not be treated as equivalent to serious scientists. They were being picked up by editors and by pundits like 'Bonkers' Hitchens [Peter Hitchens, the Mail on Sunday columnist]."

According to Cummings, Johnson rejected the idea of being more aggressive with the media, saying "The trouble is, Dom, I'm with Bonkers. My heart is with Bonkers, I don't believe in any of this, it's all bullshit. I wish I'd been the mayor in Jaws and kept the beaches open.'

I think that is one of the drivers of this now.

Having said all that - I don't think the government can now rely on Tory votes to pass any new restrictions and I think if they have to be re-introduced in September/October (which seems relatively likely) then there may well be a leadership challenge.

[garbon]

Having said that the government have basically pushed lots of responsibility onto the private sector - so they need to be doing (and recording) covid risk assessments and can restrict entry to only people with a vaccine certificate - so if the private sector uses those powers to their full effect it may not be quite like the Netherlands - but it is, of couse, not quite a "freedom day".

But I worry that after the year they've had and government support being withdrawn (the Treasury strikes again), the hospitality sector may not be particularly rigorous in using vaccine certificates or in their risk assessments.

Which is really then an abdication of responsibility on the part of the government. Why would businesses, which need an unfettered amount of customers, want to self-impose restrictions on themselves? Living it to businesses to sort out is as good as saying those days are done.

[Sheilbh]

Which is really then an abdication of responsibility on the part of the government. Why would businesses, which need an unfettered amount of customers, want to self-impose restrictions on themselves? Living it to businesses to sort out is as good as saying those days are done.

I think that's more a function of the lack of government support for businesses taking a restrictive approach. I think that's going to drive business to take risks.

I think it's fair to provide guidance and legal powers to business but not mandating any particular steps, instead relying on them conducting risk assessments that's how most health and safety laws work - as well as loads of other regulations which aren't actually particularly detailed in the UK or the rest of Europe. There's a legal duty to provide a safe workplace for employees and customers - that already depends on companies making risk assessments and adjusting for those risks. That includes government and public health guidance on covid and the legal powers available to businesses in the context of the pandemic - even if it's not mandated. 90% of "health and safety gone mad" isn't government regulation - it's companies trying to minimise their risk.

But if a company ignored non-binding government guidance and didn't take advantage of powers they legally could (like covid certificates) I think they'd be quite exposed to claims for negligence as well, possibly, as breaching their health and safety obligations. But I think the issue is the lack of government support which means many businesses might choose to take the risk of liability because they desperately need the revenue. And I think it is fine and makes sense to move the obligations to the private sector (and that should be preferred) but in this context I think you need to provide enough support for them to make good, sensible decisions driven by their health and safety duties rather than by the need to keep the money coming in to survive.

I wouldn't be surprised if big companies who can maybe take the hit and afford legal advice on this are quite strict while smaller ones who can't are lax (and exposed)- which I think is another example of the government's support/economic side just not getting the risk of a pandemic

[alfred russel]

Which is really then an abdication of responsibility on the part of the government. Why would businesses, which need an unfettered amount of customers, want to self-impose restrictions on themselves? Living it to businesses to sort out is as good as saying those days are done.

That is entirely fact free reasoning. There are many places that have lifted all restrictions at this point and many businesses in those jurisdictions that are self imposing restrictions.

[The Larch]

What's the deal with Luka Modric? 

[Legbiter]

I think the row over masks is a sideshow in comparison to clubs and venues and hospitality re-opening with no social distancing requirements and no capacity caps.

My understanding is the Netherlands (where case numbers are extraordinary, I think they've already overtaken the UK, and, on Our World in Data, the new cases line is basically vertical) had re-opened clubs and found they were a huge vector in new cases.

Yeah same, clubs and pubs are driving the new cases. The local math here works out to vaccination giving you about 60% protection against infection against the delta variety. Maybe the new standard for control measures won't be the number of positive cases per se but rather available hospital capacity. We've vaccinated 90% so not much more juice there left.

[Sheilbh]

What's the deal with Luka Modric? 

Scotland getting knocked out the Euros coincides with their case numbers starting to peak

[Sheilbh]

Wait. There's an anti-lockdown protest now in Westminster?!

Lads, open a newspaper