Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Yet another example of the Treasury being the institutional embodiment of penny wise and pound foolish - Politico has seen emails between senior civil servants in multiple departments. The Treasury was instructing other departments to conceal from the public or play down that part of the furlough scheme also allowed people to obtain higher isolation sick pay if they were self-isolating following a positive test.

Apparently their concern was that the costs of furlough and sick pay were already too high so they needed to try and make sure people didn't know about it so they weren't increased. The civil servants in other departments did record that they opposed this decision.

The cost of sick pay or furlough is nothing compared to the impact (financial and human) of people not able to self isolate spreading covid

I feel like an underrated part of this whole crisis - and the response to it - has been taking very expensive remedial measures because the Treasury didn't want to spend money to do something properly in the first place

[celedhring]

One of my current peeves with colleagues from work, including bosses, is convincing them to communicate through email or phonecalls rather than via Whatsapp. It's bad for work efficiency (I never answer on time because messages keep getting pushed down by new ones and I don't realize when I get one) and work - life balance (I'd rather keep WhatsApp as work-free as possible, as it's something linked to my personal phone, not a work phone).

I don't use it for work at all, except for maybe scheduling meetings and such. I had this head writer that wanted to have "Whatsapp meetings" with the whole writing team and it was one of the terriblest ideas ever.

[Sheilbh]

I don't use it for work at all, except for maybe scheduling meetings and such. I had this head writer that wanted to have "Whatsapp meetings" with the whole writing team and it was one of the terriblest ideas ever.

I have had to give training to so many people explaining that if you use WhatsApp - or your personal phone - for work, then your employer can require you to provide access to the device to meet their legal obligations like disclosure in litigation or responding to data subject requests (so if you bitch about x colleague in a different WhatsApp group - they will be able to get those messages). It is always a surprise

I'm very conservative and never let anything remotely connected to work touch my personal devices

Although I would use WhatsApp on a work phone but it's for more casual work things - like sharing articles etc. But I know one person who has a client who does all their communications and instructions over WhatsApp.

[The Larch]

It's been reported in the press here that the UK is considering to remove the need to quarantine for 10 days after visiting an amber list country.

[The Larch]

One of my current peeves with colleagues from work, including bosses, is convincing them to communicate through email or phonecalls rather than via Whatsapp. It's bad for work efficiency (I never answer on time because messages keep getting pushed down by new ones and I don't realize when I get one) and work - life balance (I'd rather keep WhatsApp as work-free as possible, as it's something linked to my personal phone, not a work phone).

I don't use it for work at all, except for maybe scheduling meetings and such. I had this head writer that wanted to have "Whatsapp meetings" with the whole writing team and it was one of the terriblest ideas ever.

I don't want to use it for work either, but when you get included in a group set up by your supervisor with the rest of the project's team is slightly rude to just leave. 

[garbon]

It's been reported in the press here that the UK is considering to remove the need to quarantine for 10 days after visiting an amber list country.

If one has been fully vaccinated.

[Sheilbh]

It's been reported in the press here that the UK is considering to remove the need to quarantine for 10 days after visiting an amber list country.

If one has been fully vaccinated.

Makes sense and presumably fully vaccinated plus 14 days?

From what I understand Portugal is imposing new restrictions because of a spike in cases - you need a pre-flight PCR test to go to Portugal, but I'd be surprised if this isn't linked to British tourists and the delta variant. I really don't think the pre-flight test is an effective control measure (it also applied to all the trips from India in April which seeded the delta variant here).

[celedhring]

One of my current peeves with colleagues from work, including bosses, is convincing them to communicate through email or phonecalls rather than via Whatsapp. It's bad for work efficiency (I never answer on time because messages keep getting pushed down by new ones and I don't realize when I get one) and work - life balance (I'd rather keep WhatsApp as work-free as possible, as it's something linked to my personal phone, not a work phone).

I don't use it for work at all, except for maybe scheduling meetings and such. I had this head writer that wanted to have "Whatsapp meetings" with the whole writing team and it was one of the terriblest ideas ever.

I don't want to use it for work either, but when you get included in a group set up by your supervisor with the rest of the project's team is slightly rude to just leave. 

That's what my head writer did, but the entire writing team staged a revolt and he relented. 

He's a nice dude, but an absolute workaholic and he expects everybody to do the same.

[Sheilbh]

So yeah - Poots has resigned. He was presented with a no confidence motion by the DUP leadership a few minutes ago. He lasted 20 days which is pretty extraordinary.

The pressure from the more hardline unionist/loyalist community is now to collapse the Stormont institutions over the NIP and the Irish language compromise. There are also calls from unionist/loyalist activists to start protests to Dublin after the 12th July.

Also unionist march this evening which has blocked the roads leading from one of the port facilities. The DUP's gamble from a BBC Ulster journalist:

Very Senior DUP source telling me today the party must tell the British government they will walk from the Assembly if no change to protocol. 
Their view is British government will cave , especially in run up to marching season.

Weirdly while I think the protocol is the most imporant issue from a UK perspective, I'm actually starting to think that the Irish Language Act may be the bigger issue within Northern Ireland because it's an absolute demand from Sinn Fein and it seems liks there's now so much hostility to it in unionist circles that passint it is not possible. And this increases unionist/loyalist rage at the UK government (I'm seeing lots of stuff about "appeasement" and betrayal etc) for their support for it.

Latest line from what I see is that they want to collapse all North-South cooperation bodies over the protocol (and, if necessary - which it isn't at this stage - to collapse all Stormont institutions too); and to collapse all Stormont institutions rather than pass the Irish Language Act.

Edit: Best summary of Poots' problem - he was taking a pragmatic stance on the Irish language (and has a reputation - despite the young earth creationist background - as a pragmatic dealmaker who has worked quite well with Sinn Fein ministers). To win the leadership he had to alienate all the other people in the party who wanted to take a pragmatic stance and surrounded himself with all the people who didn't. I'm sure there's no possible analogy with Brexit there

[Jacob]

So basically the Unionist gambit is to say they'll wreck as much shit as possible if they don't get their way, but them getting their way will most likely push the Nationalists to wreck as much shit as possible. And the potential for some sort of workable compromise is gone, due to Brexit. Is that about the shape of it?

[Sheilbh]

So basically the Unionist gambit is to say they'll wreck as much shit as possible if they don't get their way, but them getting their way will most likely push the Nationalists to wreck as much shit as possible. And the potential for some sort of workable compromise is gone, due to Brexit. Is that about the shape of it?

Yes - if there's no sort of workable compromise between the UK and the EU. I don't think that's the case and I think that will be a political choice for the EU and the UK over whether they're willing to deviate from their respective red lines (single market integrity/regulatory independence). So I think there is space for a workable compromise by the EU and UK but they need to act like adults and stop using Northern Ireland as a political point. I don't see a route to a workable compromise on the ILA - and I think that might actually be the bigger issue as baffling as it is from a UK/EU perspective

If they get what they want and the Protocol is reversed (although as I say they are less hardline on this in principle) and/or the ILA doesn't get passed then we have exactly the same issues, but wearing green.

The background for the ILA is that Sinn Fein collapsed the institutions in part over an environmental subsidies scandal but also over the Irish language. Three years ago the DUP - with the UK and Irish government heavily involved in the negotiations - reached a compromise with Sinn Fein that would basically make Irish an official language of Northern Ireland but also make Ulster Scots an official language. It's becoming increasingly clear that there isn't any support left in the wider unionist community (possibly because Irish is a living language with strong support by the Irish state, so it has more meaning - while Ulster Scots isn't really and it was clearly just a sop to unionist sentiment - see Yi's response earlier).

And the unionist/loyalist position would be that for the past 15 years Sinn Fein have regularly collapsed or threatened to collapse Stormont to get their way and unionists normally end up compromising - and the UK government normally supports what Sinn Fein want. There is some truth to that, but the perception matters even more. And I think the perception is that it's a bit like the frog in a pan that's brought to the boil - so they feel that for 15 years there have been lots of compromises to accommodate Sinn Fein to avoid collapsing the institutions (and, always, the latent risk of violence) and it's now reaching a point with, in their eyes, an "economic united Ireland" and cultural issues like Irish language provision that their position is really under risk constitutionally, economically and culturally.

Nationalists would dispute that narrative - but I would note nationalists are broadly happy with the status quo and even parties in Ireland that are traditionally a bit dubious about unification are talking about it. I personally sympathise a lot more with the nationalist side - and I don't see a way for them to back down on the ILA - so I just don't have any idea about the a solution.

From a fairly prominent unionist activist:

Jamie Bryson
@JamieBrysonCPNI
Absolutely. The institutions must be pulled down is necessary- and there must be meaningful structure reform of the poisonous one way process which has offered nothing to Unionism for 23 years.
[...]
No Unionist leader can survive appeasing nationalism. The unionist electorate have nothing left to give.

It's sad it didn't work out for Edwin, but  the roll over on N/S bodies & this appalling humiliation over Irish Language were fatal mistakes.

Enough is enough.

Needless to say it doesn't help that trust in the UK government is rock bottom among unionists because this is the sort of moment when you need someone who can pick up the phone and work out what's happening. As I say my big fear is that on both sides there's an emerging nexus of organised crime and young street activisim that could make things go violent quite quickly - and I don't think London or Dublin have the backchannels to know what's happening and what the trigger points are.

Edit: Interesting comments from former DUP head of strategy for Arlene Foster that basically all politics requires compromise which relies on you having the political capital to make the compromise happen and after the NIP mainstream political unionism has no capital left. It is perceived as having failed utterly by getting into a situation where the protocol has happened and their voters are furious.

While he doesn't think it's the right choice, between the recent Assembly shenanigans, the protocol and the ILA he thinks unionist voters as a whole have turned against devolution/power-sharing.

[Sheilbh]

FFS - apparently UEFA are threatening to move the Euros final to Hungary if the UK doesn't exempt the 2,500 strong "football family" from quarantine and the government's considering it

Patrick Maguire
@patrickkmaguire
EXC: Ministers are considering plans to exempt thousands of football VIPs from quarantine restrictions in a last-ditch bid to prevent Uefa from moving the Euro 2020 final from Wembley to Budapest
Under plans being discussed by ministers, select Uefa and Fifa officials, sponsors and broadcasters would be exempted from travel restrictions - subject to strict public health/testing protocols - to attend matches, training sessions and meet government officials.
Despite concerns public health concerns around Covid infections and the potential for a public backlash to exempting VIPs while Britons can't go on holiday, the stakes are high.

Ministers warned by UEFA that Hungary can host the later Wembley games at 100 per cent capacity.
Boris Johnson is said to be supportive for one main reason: the 2030 World Cup.

In discussions within government concerns have been raised that losing the final will undermine Home Nations bid.

Mooted exemptions would allow PM to lobby UEFA/FIFA big cheeses in person.

I'd predict the public backlash would be huge

[Sheilbh]

Also the other by-election Chesham and Amersham is being counted. This is a Blue Wall seat that's basically always been Tory - it used to be the seat of choice for whichever member the Rothschild family went into parliament (mainly Tory, sometimes Liberal). It's an older, affluent, university-educated Remain area.

Rumours are that the Lib Dems have done very well and might have taken it from the Tories. But because no news can be good for Labour, there are also rumours that they've come behind the Greens and Reform (the remnants of the Brexit Party)

[Sheilbh]

And it went Lib Dem - huge win for them with a 25% swing. I still think their campaign was a little distasteful with the leader campaigning while the local MP, who was terminally ill, was on her deathbed.

But a big result and one that I think might shape Lib Dem strategy - possibly looking at moving more into South-Eastern/commuter belt seats. Clearly also quite a lot of tactical voting as the Greens were down, by about 1% while Labour (who only won 622 votes) were down 10% - but I think the swing from the Tories alone would be sufficient.

Obviously it's a by-election so turnout was down, but dropping 20+% is bad at any time and it feels like the Tories just didn't see this coming and weren't prepared. Especially in a seat that has never not been Tory, where they've never had less than a 10k and over 50% majority.

There will be a lot of over-interpretation of the Blue Wall thing but two things strike me as potential issues for the Tories. One is that they really seem to not have expected this and I wonder how moribund the local parties are and if there's a "taking them for granted" thing going on just as there was for Labour in Scotland and the Red Wall. The other is that this is basically the same challenge that Labour have in their race to avoid PASOKification. Labour's challenge is how do you please traditional heartlands that are socially/culturally conservative but economically left-wing and younger growing urban areas that are socially/cutulrually liberal but economically left-wing (in a different way). For the Tories how do they hold on to the new Red Wall that's socially/culturally conservative but economically left and their old heartlands that's economically on the right and increasingly socially/culturally liberal (the sort of Cameroon Tories).

Our voting system forces choices and favours a two party system so parties tend to be big tent coalitions used to containing multiple forces - but both of the big parties contain forces that are really quite opposed to each other on key issues. In Europe they would fracture into traditional social democrats + Greens/New Left and new right populists + plus mainstream conservative/Christian Democrats + liberals. I wonder for both parties if the question that I heard on Talking Politics a week ago is true - is the voting system propping up moribund parties or can they build out their coalitions in the way that the Democrats have and (when they tried to win elections rather than just stop people from voting) Republicans did?

Still a rare good news night for the Lib Dems (thuogh I would note, for balance, that their campaign focused a lot on opposing planning reform to make it easier to build new houses and opposing HS2 ).

[Josquius]

Also the other by-election Chesham and Amersham is being counted. This is a Blue Wall seat that's basically always been Tory - it used to be the seat of choice for whichever member the Rothschild family went into parliament (mainly Tory, sometimes Liberal). It's an older, affluent, university-educated Remain area.

Rumours are that the Lib Dems have done very well and might have taken it from the Tories. But because no news can be good for Labour, there are also rumours that they've come behind the Greens and Reform (the remnants of the Brexit Party)

I'd say this is good news if so. Shows less that labour have failed and more that sensible people have successfully got the message to vote tactically.


Edit - yup. Seems the lib dems won and labour did freakishly terrible.
I admit this by election had completely passed me by and I didn't realise it was happening. Really needs an investigation into what happened there. Hope my theory is right- given labour are so freakishly low I do suspect so. Anywhere in the country there's usually a solid base of at least 5-10% who will always vote Labour or Tory. Odd not to see it here.

Still a rare good news night for the Lib Dems (thuogh I would note, for balance, that their campaign focused a lot on opposing planning reform to make it easier to build new houses and opposing HS2 ).

So its kind of like Stalin being one of the victors in WW2 then