Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

I haven't read it but I think NI is poised to be a lucrative smugglers market of unregulated shit pouring into the EU. Clearly neither Britain nor the EU have any desire whatsoever to restart the NI civil war over trade barriers.

[Sheilbh]

Oh I've given up on the general public, the Tories are 10% ahead in the polls and labour just seem so lacklustre. I posted the trade figures mainly so that we could grumble about them 

In fairness I think there are pandemic specific reasons for the polls

I can't imagine a much worse environment to launch your new, re-vamped leadership of a political party than a global pandemic It reminds me of the 2001 Tory leadership election which was meant to be announced on September 11th.

But also I think there's two other kind of interesting pandemic angles. I think one is that Starmer decided to focus on competence because the government was mishandling the pandemic and there's a reasonable bet they would end up mishandling the Brexit aftermath. But if your angle is competence you are at risk of the government doing something high-profile well. In general, I think it's a low risk with Johnson in charge, but it has happened. And at this stage if Starmer isn't the more competent candidate, I think it's tough to see what his argument is.

I also think it's striking, in my view, weirdly forgicing the public is of the pandemic deaths. I think people are distinguishing things they think are because of the pandemic which they're forgiving of, I think because the view is it could overwhelm any government even a competent one. But I think they are unforgiving of government jobs within that - so opening and closing schools, vaccines, test and trace have an impact on people's opinions. I have some sympathy with that but my view is that is limited to the first wave - this second wave is entirely on the government because of how predictable (and predicted) it was when we were re-opening in Autumn/Winter. But I feel like the public are taking a more generous view.

The other difficulty is that at the minute, partly because of the pandemic, the Tories are camped out in Labour territory economically. And I don't know how that plays out for Labour. I also think Johnson's in a far stronger position politically now - and I can't remember where I heard it - but I think Johnson might tear through Chancellors, because I think, like MacMillan, he will always want the economy running hot. Sunak's laid out his approach for starting to balance the budget in 4 years time (probably after the election) - I kind of doubt he'll get the chance because I think Johnson will always choose growth.

[Richard Hakluyt]

It might start looking better for Labour when the vaccine bounce has been forgotten and the inquiries into the pandemic mis-management and misuse of public funds occupy centre-stage. It is possible that Starmer is right to hang fire and be resolutely boring for now........but he risks getting typecast in my opinion.

[Zanza]

it feels like the only way that people in the UK understand the relationship with the EU (before Brexit) is fundamentally sort of parasitical. It's a really basic perspective. And the difference is just that the pro-Brexit/FBPE wings disagree on who's the parasite.

That's certainly true for Leavers, but thinking that comparatively the UK will lose more with Brexit than the EU is equal to thinking we parasited on the EU.

But that's not what I mean - it's that the UK really contributed nothing/added no value to the EU. We were the ones who received all the benefits of sort of saving us from ourselves. On the one side we had no say, on the other side we added nothing. Both are just passive parasites just different sides.

So it's more that leavers cannot accept that that the UK benefited from being in the EU, the FBPE wing cannot accept that the EU benefited from having the UK in it.

Edit: And I think that is actually where the truth is.

The British contributions to the EU are well known and the EU is poorer without the UK. It contributed politically by driving the Single Market (Thatcher) or eastern enlargement (Blair). It was always a driver for liberalization, which makes the decision to massively raise trade barriers even more bizarre. It also contributed many fine people, their expertise and ingeniuity, took in large amounts of EU workers, probably more than any other country. That the EU did not benefit from British membership is not the stance of any rational person. That said, the current British government is hostile and wants the EU to dissolve. As such, it is good that the current UK is not a member anymore.

[Maladict]

Oh I've given up on the general public, the Tories are 10% ahead in the polls and labour just seem so lacklustre. I posted the trade figures mainly so that we could grumble about them 

You're not alone. The liberals have been gutting the healthcare service for a decade here, which is at least in part a direct cause for our poor showing during the pandemic. They're now projected to win next week's election by a historic margin. The left is divided and squabbling as usual, instead of presenting a united opposition.

[Josquius]

I think to play with a lot of it is the 'give them a chance' factor. This was key in a lot of people just wanting brexit done despite recognising it wasn't the best of ideas. Give it a shot and see what happens.
Corona has messed up people's perception of time and put things on hold so Johnson's tories are essentially still a new government in people's mind. They promised all kinds of weird and wonderful things.
When they fail to deliver anything...then hopefully people won't be tricked into just chasing the next set of shiny keys.

[Zanza]

The January UK trade figures are out and are appalling as predicted :

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/january2021

Imports of goods from the EU were down 28.8% (£6.6bn) while exports of goods to the EU were down 40% (£5.6bn).

Services were far less affected with a 2% drop in imports and 1% in exports.

This all backs the idea that remainer areas will suffer less than brexiter areas. It is a very weird month though due to covid and teething problems at the border.

I have read different figures for trade where it collapsed more than trade in goods... 

Anyway, the fall in January is bigger than those for the other times Brexit seemed imminent (stockpiling effect) plus the first lockdown (Covid effect). So at least a significant amount of the fall is due to Brexit trade barriers.

[Sheilbh]

It might start looking better for Labour when the vaccine bounce has been forgotten and the inquiries into the pandemic mis-management and misuse of public funds occupy centre-stage. It is possible that Starmer is right to hang fire and be resolutely boring for now........but he risks getting typecast in my opinion.

Agreed on all of that.

Although I wonder if the inquiries will really have an impact, in part because I think after the pandemic everyone will be desperate to move on both in our own lives and in general. I also think we may find blame going in odd directions - for example from everything I've read Dominic Cummings was vocally in favour of lockdowns early at a point when the scientific advisors hadn't even modeled it because their assumption was it would not be possible to have a lockdown in the UK. I suspect it might be a bit like Chilcott - of interest to political journalists and historians but not particularly salient in how people vote.

But I think you always need to build a case beyond competence - I don't think that's enough to win an election (especially with as much of a swing as Labour needs). And I think you're right. I mean I've been disappointed by Starmer because I think he's made some really bad choices. There have been opportunities I think he's really missed. I think Labour should have gone in hard against lifting restrictions at the end of last year but didn't at the time. I think they should have gone in far harder against Williamson for the repeated fuck-ups in school re-openings but they've been timid. I also genuinely do not understand how, in the run-up to the budget, Labour managed to get themselves in more of an internal fight/struggle over corporate tax rises than the Tories

I get that in general people don't want opposition style politics during a crisis, but I think there have been enough big mistakes (especially re-opening in December and schools) that actually people would back some opposition politics. Labour haven't made the most of them.

[Sheilbh]

The British contributions to the EU are well known and the EU is poorer without the UK. It contributed politically by driving the Single Market (Thatcher) or eastern enlargement (Blair). It was always a driver for liberalization, which makes the decision to massively raise trade barriers even more bizarre. It also contributed many fine people, their expertise and ingeniuity, took in large amounts of EU workers, probably more than any other country. That the EU did not benefit from British membership is not the stance of any rational person. That said, the current British government is hostile and wants the EU to dissolve. As such, it is good that the current UK is not a member anymore.

I don't disagree with any of this and maybe it's a sign of the irrationality on both sides here. It's just pure zero sum thinking - although now you've laid it out in that way, I wonder if part of it is that in the UK remainers are generally on the left/liberal wing of politics and Thatcher and Blair aren't popular with that constituency. So that may be why there's a difficulty in consdering that the UK was, in some ways, a positive in the EU because it would involve acknowledging that Thatcher and Blair had positives

I'm not sure that the current government want's the EU to dissolve - to be honest I don't think the government really cares that much.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I have read different figures for trade where it collapsed more than trade in goods... 

That could easily be down to it being just a single month. Tourism, for example, would be pretty low in January regardless of covid or brexit.

I suppose all our figures are going to be pretty screwed up for several years ahead. Half the people I know seem to be planning on going to Greece in the late summer and early autumn, so we can expect weird headlines "British tourism in Greece up 30% after Brexit!" and so on.

[Sheilbh]

That could easily be down to it being just a single month. Tourism, for example, would be pretty low in January regardless of covid or brexit.

This is a total aside but I saw a chart of European tourism by month in different countries and I think when it climbs above average. Some of it made perfect sense like Spain and Portugal absolutely smashing it in the summer. One of the most baffling points was the UK which apparently receives a lot of tourism in December and January - which I don't understand. Those are the worst months to come here

[celedhring]

It makes a lot of sense, during the summer people prefer going to beachy (not bitchy) countries. 

Both times I've been to the UK have been autumn-winter (incidentally, it's about damn time I visited again, oh wait, yeah pandemic  )

[Richard Hakluyt]

Possibly because December/January is dreary everywhere and most tourists go to London or Edinburgh which are great places even in dreary weather?

I get slightly miffed that foreign tourists don't get about the country a bit more; so many great places to visit. But I suppose it is the same everywhere; I loved messing about in Germany when I was free to do so (and will do again ,,,retirement in two weeks    ) and there were hardly any foreign tourists in lots of places.

[Sheilbh]

Possibly because December/January is dreary everywhere and most tourists go to London or Edinburgh which are great places even in dreary weather?

Yes - but I don't know. I go for a beach holiday in summer, but I also go to, say, Ukraine or somewhere interesting in summer on the theory that everywhere is probably at their best in summer

In winter I slightly want to go somewhere fun and bright and light and warmer than where I am.

I get slightly miffed that foreign tourists don't get about the country a bit more; so many great places to visit. But I suppose it is the same everywhere; I loved messing about in Germany when I was free to do so (and will do again ,,,retirement in two weeks    ) and there were hardly any foreign tourists in lots of places.

Yeah. I think that is probably the same everywhere but it goes for people moving to the UK as well. I used to work with an Italian girl who decided to travel in the UK and would come into work raving about the weekend she'd just spent in Yorkshire, or going to South Wales. I don't do it enough.

I always enjoy a trip somewhere where you can just sort of potter about from town to town/city to city.

[The Larch]

I've also visited the UK mostly in winter as well, although the last time I went to London was actually in July.

Possibly because December/January is dreary everywhere and most tourists go to London or Edinburgh which are great places even in dreary weather?

Yeah, it's an "indoors" kind of holiday season, and for many people not much more than a long weekend, or a week tops, so large cities with plenty of attractions are the best choice. In summer you tend to have much more time, so you can then travel outside of Europe (when we could travel).

I get slightly miffed that foreign tourists don't get about the country a bit more; so many great places to visit. But I suppose it is the same everywhere; I loved messing about in Germany when I was free to do so (and will do again ,,,retirement in two weeks    ) and there were hardly any foreign tourists in lots of places.

It has to do a lot with the ease of travelling around the country, and the UK has several factors that play against them. Trains are super expensive and driving on the left discourages many people to rent a car, so that makes loitering outside the big cities much more complicated.