Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

She is comically horrible 

To be fair the Home Office seems to have that effect on people, she is just the worst case in recent years.

Yeah I can happily  believe the worst about her, but the Home Office does seem to have an effect on everyone.

I remember seeing a former senior civil servant saying that there was a meeting with May's people (just after she became PM and brought her staff from the Home Office). And the Treasury wanted to address the very real problem of big businessses (and government) not paying their invoices on time which causes lots of issues for SMEs. The first question from May's team was why they don't just make it a crime that directors are personally liable for

We cannot predict the future, but I would expect that if another country leaves or has a relevant debate about it, it will be less about perceived success of Brexit and more about domestic policies. If Brexit has shown one thing it is that the abstract economic arguments have very little sway about emotional voters. Brexit was supported because of xenophobia and lack of chances in poorer areas of the UK with the EU being the scapegoat. The sovereignty argument also appeals to basic feelings of the voters. That's something that can happen elsewhere, especially the sovereignty argument. A measurable or immeasurable success of Brexit will at best be a minor additional argument.

I agree my point isn't that Salvini or Le Pen will say "well Brexit is a 'success', so we should do it or something similar too". It's that they'll say "experts told us Brexit would be a catastrophe and they were wrong; now they're telling us leaving the Euro or whatever and they're still wrong". It has the potential of becoming something a bit like Project Fear - a way to dismiss criticism or warnings from economists, the Commission, the OECD, the IMF etc as politically motivated fear-mongering.

The source of any Eurosceptic policies in France or Italy will be domestic politics - but the argument about risks will be shaped by what happened in the UK and how that matches expectations management by European politicians.

Not at all. There has been worldwide understanding of what happened both during Brexit and Trump's election. And politicians all over have taken notice. But the lesson is not "we must take care of people or voted out". It is "Holy shit! we can make people believe anything we want".

The only thing that matters is narrative. That's the lesson politicians have learnt. You can see that clearly in Spain, for example.

I've never bought the Brexit - Trump comparisons. I think there's superficial similarities but they are fairly different. And narrative has always been the most important thing in politics - if you've not got a story you've got nothing (this is Blair's criticism of modern social democrats - they have no narrative of the future, yet).

[Sheilbh]

She is comically horrible 

To be fair the Home Office seems to have that effect on people, she is just the worst case in recent years.

Someone pointed out that this is like an inverted version of that story from the late 40s when Life Magazine wrote to Ambassadors in DC and asked them what they would like for Christmas. The French Ambassador's response was peace on earth, the Soviet Ambassador's response was for freedom for the working classes globally and the British Ambassador responded that it was very nice of them to ask and he'd quite like some candied fruit

[Tamas]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55180293

Nothing new there really as its very brief, except maybe a confirmation that the there's nothing stopping the return of roaming charges, which is NOT good news for a dirty East Euro immigrant like myself.

Also, this is right there with "red white and blue Brexit":

British travellers will still be able to access emergency health care in the European Union. European Heath Insurance Cards, (EHIC) cards will remain valid until they expire. According to the UK government, they will then have to be replaced by a "UK Global Health Insurance Card"

[Richard Hakluyt]

It will be world-beating and anyway Englishmen do not need need it as we are all as fit as butcher's dogs :johnson

[The Brain]

Just wear protection when you carry on up the Khyber.

[Sheilbh]

Also, this is right there with "red white and blue Brexit":

British travellers will still be able to access emergency health care in the European Union. European Heath Insurance Cards, (EHIC) cards will remain valid until they expire. According to the UK government, they will then have to be replaced by a "UK Global Health Insurance Card"

I'm surprised we're keeping EHIC and if we add new countries to the UK version as of next year - that's a good thing right? I sometimes travel outside of Europe and have no issues getting travel insurance (and after breaking a bone earlier this year in the Caucasus - I STRONGLY recommend everyone makes sure they have good travel insurance) but this would make it a little bit easier if I can just take a card as I would in most of Europe.

It's a bit like Erasumus - I think it's a shame and mistake to leave. But when Erasmus was created the UK (plus Germany and France) were very reluctant because their universities already had very strong international exchange schemes. And I'm not opposed in principle to a more international exchange scheme which could actually be very good for UK students. Sadly it will be established by Gavin Williamson - so it'll be a catastrophe instead.

[Tamas]

Also, this is right there with "red white and blue Brexit":

British travellers will still be able to access emergency health care in the European Union. European Heath Insurance Cards, (EHIC) cards will remain valid until they expire. According to the UK government, they will then have to be replaced by a "UK Global Health Insurance Card"

I'm surprised we're keeping EHIC and if we add new countries to the UK version as of next year - that's a good thing right? I sometimes travel outside of Europe and have no issues getting travel insurance (and after breaking a bone earlier this year in the Caucasus - I STRONGLY recommend everyone makes sure they have good travel insurance) but this would make it a little bit easier if I can just take a card as I would in most of Europe.

It's a bit like Erasumus - I think it's a shame and mistake to leave. But when Erasmus was created the UK (plus Germany and France) were very reluctant because their universities already had very strong international exchange schemes. And I'm not opposed in principle to a more international exchange scheme which could actually be very good for UK students. Sadly it will be established by Gavin Williamson - so it'll be a catastrophe instead.

I will be (positively) shocked if this "global health card" happens. Sounds super-expensive, especially if reciprocal NHS coverage to the world would be necessary.

[Sheilbh]

I will be (positively) shocked if this "global health card" happens. Sounds super-expensive, especially if reciprocal NHS coverage to the world would be necessary.

I'd be surprised if it doesn't happen - not globally obviously. My understanding is the issuing country basically pays for treatment so re-imburses the host country for the costs of the medical treatment. I think that'd be expensive for the UK signing up with anywhere because the NHS is pretty cheap compared to most healthcare systems

[garbon]

Global Health Insurance card but not globally, obviously.

Do you hear yourself?

[Tamas]

Is there even a precedent outside the EU where citizenship in country A makes you automatically eligible for free healthcare in country B?

[The Brain]

Global Health Insurance card but not globally, obviously.

Do you hear yourself?

All the red parts of the map = globally. I find your lack of faith in Britannia disturbed.

[Sheilbh]

Is there even a precedent outside the EU where citizenship in country A makes you automatically eligible for free healthcare in country B?

But citizenship doesn't - that's why the card exists. Issuing countries agree reciprocally to provide insurance for the cost of emergency medical treatment when citizens (or maybe residents?) are visiting the other country.

There are rights to healthcare in the EU but that's more for people who've moved to the country using freedom of movement. It's tied to residence so doesn't apply for temporary visitors like tourists or students.

It doesn't strike me as impossible to get other countries (not the US - that would bankrupt us ), especially if they've got quite a lot of tourists or students going to the UK to agree something similar. Maybe it will be, but I don't see any reason not to try.

And in the UK the principle for the NHS is still free at the point of delivery - so even non-European visitors can go to A&E or get family planning or certain other emergency treatments (STIs for example) for free. They/their insurer only gets a bill if they're actually admitted into hospital or basically if their treatment moves from emergency to  proper treatment.

Global Health Insurance card but not globally, obviously.

Do you hear yourself?

What would you call a card that covers Europe and other countries outside of Europe? It's not universal, it's not properly "global", I suppose UK International Health Insurance Card might be better?

I find this stuff a bit weird - the UK is still a member of EHIC (which is good) and is looking to add other countries (which would make it better) and people are still getting annoyed because of the branding

[Tamas]

Sunak, such a fresh air in Tory politics.

Not.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/27/sunak-suggests-eu-access-for-financial-services-will-exceed-brexit-deal

So Johnson admitted the financial services are not coming out ideal-like from the trade deal. So Sunak rushes into the opening promising he'll arrange a deal with the EU that'll be better for financial services than EU membership. 

[Sheilbh]

Yeah it's nonsense - it's equivalence. Having said that I would note that the EU very rarely withdraws equivalence, it might happen more for the UK because we're near and big on the other hand there are still markets such as interest rate hedging where London's gone from a market that provided 75% of the EU's hedging in 2016 to about 90% now - so withdrawing equivalence hits European companies - who are the customers of London too.

I quite enjoyed this take from an Irish lawyer who's an expert in financial service regulation:

Sean Tuffy
@SMTuffy
I'm still on Christmas break, so not going deep on the Brexit deal. For now, I'll just say Fin Services side was entirely predictable and no one in The City is surprised. Equivalence is only going to be granted to keep the lights on, otherwise it's third country all the way.
And for Asset Management, the real Brexit debate is the EU's look at delegation in the AIFMD/UCITS rules and how much (not if) they are going to tighten the rules. Status Quo isn't an option

This is the same reason passporting doesn't matter. The City has known it wasn't going to be part of the deal since 2017 and has adjusted its business processes accordingly. Slowly, over time there will probably be a drift to Europe especially if the ECB gets involved. But there's nothing surprising for financial services in how skinny this deal is (virtually nothing for them).

[Zanza]

As reply to Tamas, not Sheilbh:
In reality, the EU has decided NOT to grant equivalence for any further areas of financial services for now, but will likely do so eventually.


https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_2532

The Commission has assessed the UK's replies to the Commission's equivalence questionnaires in 28 areas. A series of further clarifications will be needed, in particular regarding how the UK will diverge from EU frameworks after 31 December, how it will use its supervisory discretion regarding EU firms and how the UK's temporary regimes will affect EU firms. For these reasons, the Commission cannot finalise its assessment of the UK's equivalence in the 28 areas and therefore will not take decisions at this point in time. The assessments will continue. The Commission has taken note of the UK's equivalence decisions announced in November, adopted in the UK's interest. Similarly, the EU will consider equivalence when they are in the EU's interest.