Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

Growth alone is probably not a good measure, considering demographic trends and potentially the baseline. Growth/capita is already better.

Also not sure if e.g. a further decline of manufacturing in the North and farming everywhere hidden by further growth in London (and as effect further growth of imbalances) can really be considered a success for Britain.

Great success for the brexiters.
Ironically completely the opposite of what the quitlings thought they were voting for.

[garbon]

Von der Leyen is holding a press conference and states that a deal has been reached.

[Josquius]

At a brief glance this looks pretty bad for Europe. Is there an expiration date on it?
Awaiting an analysis article from someone with a clue.

[Sheilbh]

Growth alone is probably not a good measure, considering demographic trends and potentially the baseline. Growth/capita is already better.

Yeah and the baseline is difficult given covid.

Also not sure if e.g. a further decline of manufacturing in the North and farming everywhere hidden by further growth in London (and as effect further growth of imbalances) can really be considered a success for Britain.

Yeah so I think the intent is to have some test of Brexit's "success" rather than the UK as a whole or this government. So I sort of agree with this point, although personally I'm not particularly wedded to having a manufacturing or farming sector (save for certain strategic sectors) - having said that I'm also not particularly opposed to the idea of us becoming far more French and encouraging agriculture etc. But I think services growth in other regions is also a valid way of addressing imbalances. But I'm not sure how much of this will be down to Brexit or not. It feels like these were issues we had in the EU, they're issues we had when we left the EU and they're issues we'll have having left the EU.

[Josquius]

The trouble with the lack of a manufacturing sector is it means a lack of jobs for the working class. This is a huge problem even as things are today. Not everyone can be a lawyer or engineer.
The government really should be heavily encouraging manufacturing even if it struggles to break even, as it makes sense looking at the big picture.
Working class jobs are a vital commodity in the 21st century.

[mongers]

Yeah so I think the intent is to have some test of Brexit's "success" rather than the UK as a whole or this government. So I sort of agree with this point, although personally I'm not particularly wedded to having a manufacturing or farming sector (save for certain strategic sectors) - having said that I'm also not particularly opposed to the idea of us becoming far more French and encouraging agriculture etc. But I think services growth in other regions is also a valid way of addressing imbalances. But I'm not sure how much of this will be down to Brexit or not. It feels like these were issues we had in the EU, they're issues we had when we left the EU and they're issues we'll have having left the EU.

Weird.

[Sheilbh]

The trouble with the lack of a manufacturing sector is it means a lack of jobs for the working class. This is a huge problem even as things are today. Not everyone can be a lawyer or engineer.
The government really should be heavily encouraging manufacturing even if it struggles to break even, as it makes sense looking at the big picture.
Working class jobs are a vital commodity in the 21st century.

I'd go the other way. I don't think jobs are the issue: careers are. I don't think as a country we were ever good at offering working class/blue collar careers (as Germany is excellent at).

I think we've also someohow ended up linking "status" with degree. So to give nurses and teachers and police officers the necessary level of "status", people need a degree to sign up. That is closing off real careers that were open to people without a degree and I'm not convinced it's a great idea.

Manufacturing is one way - but I think we need to look if actually we can build careers for people in manufacturing (like Germany does) rather than just having basically blue collar enlisted workforce and white collar officers. But I think we should just look more widely at career paths for the over 50% of people who don't go to university. Not least because class is no longer a useful predictor of voting - education is.

Weird.

I am nothing if not anti-rural

[Richard Hakluyt]

I don't really care whether I'm 5 or 10% poorer or richer; what irritates me is the loss of my right to live wherever I want in Europe. In addition I will only be able to visit for 90 days at a time which will be a potential nuisance as I retire (as in disabled son moves into supported living) next Easter all going well. The younger generation in my family are pretty cosmopolitan too; quite likely to end up in relationships with Europeans; they will face complicated bureaucratic problems if such relationships get serious.

Thanks a bunch you stupid small-minded brexiter cunts 

[Tamas]

Yes a very brief summary sounds like a pretty sweet deal for the UK if your baseline is that you started from nothing. But of course we started from everything minus the wealthy having a free reign influencing British courts and workers rights. And ended up with this.

Buy at least it is over, although I have little doubt the EU will continue to the scapegoat for everything. Regardless, onwards to clorinated chichen and more relaxed immigration laws toward Asia!

[Sheilbh]

Yes a very brief summary sounds like a pretty sweet deal for the UK if your baseline is that you started from nothing. But of course we started from everything minus the wealthy having a free reign influencing British courts and workers rights. And ended up with this.

We started from everything but had lost democratic consent of the governed. Maybe the question should never have been asked - but once it has that is key and you can't start from the premise of what we had because that model no longer has consent.

Buy at least it is over, although I have little doubt the EU will continue to the scapegoat for everything. Regardless, onwards to clorinated chichen and more relaxed immigration laws toward Asia!

To more relaxed immigration laws to Asia - I really hope lots of Hong Kongers come soon. And this has already sort of happpened - there's been a decline of net EU migration but an increase in net non-EU migration (so basically no change overall since 2016), so India has overtaken Poland as the largest country of origin.

Doubt the chlorinated chicken or any deal with the US will ever happen, but there we are.

Edit: And you're right it does feel over with the Tories inevitably backing this, but it also seems like Labour will vote for it so there's zero risk (what a difference an election makes). The smart (Blairite) thing for Starmer to do would be to promise ahead of the next election that Labour won't attempt to re-negotiate the agreement or change the relationship with the EU and certainly no referendum on them. I don't know if he'll do that mind....

[Tamas]

"lost the consent of the governed" is such a nice way of saying "Just enough people got duped into shoiting themselves in the foot"

[Sheilbh]

"lost the consent of the governed" is such a nice way of saying "Just enough people got duped into shoiting themselves in the foot"

I don't think it matters whether it's good or bad for them or whether they were "duped" (though it is always people we disagree with who are duped while we remain clear-eyed and rational). If I started caring about that, I'd end up having issues with the entire idea of democracy

Even the duped voting against their interests have votes and if they win, well votes have consequences

[garbon]

I don't know why is this a vote that has to stand? How do we know this is still the will of the people?

Also, how do we know if the people want this deal?

[Tamas]

So, no passporting right for The City - is that a big deal?

[Sheilbh]

So, no passporting right for The City - is that a big deal?

It's been the working assumption since 2017. It's been clear financial services wasn't going to be part of the deal for several years.

It's not a massive deal in terms of immediate issues - all the UK or European banks had other European entities they could build up, it was more an issue for the American banks. With the financial services stuff it's more long term decline.