Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[celedhring]

What's with you and railroads (and coal mines)?

A good strategy in Brass Birmingham. 

[Josquius]

What's with you and railroads (and coal mines)?

Railways are the path to prosperity and equality.  There's a huge correlation between towns that kept their railways and towns that haven't gone to shit (and the connected far right fuck wittery).
I'm also a strong believer in the strain of thought that car focussed urban design was one of the great mistakes of the 20th century which was utterly destructive to social cohesion. 
Plus the environment is nice.

[Sheilbh]

And I'd query who the Cruyffists and the Nunists are in Labour history

Tony Blair is definitely the Johan Cruyff of Labour, if Cruyff played Mourinho football 

Yes. An Italian Cruyff. But you know he was this alien to the Labour tradition and basically said "if you stop doing all these things you love doing and start doing these new and uncomfortable things you will win" and he did. But then there's inevitable reaction of all the people who love Labour doing all those things even if they're losing (perhaps especially if they're losing - I think there is a streak in the British left that is more comfortable in opposition).

With the current state of things I just can't see a route to a majority for Labour.
I am pretty confident that we will see most of the traditional Labour seats who went Tory coming back. Nonetheless there's just too many tribally tory areas in England and with the Lib Dems and Labour splitting the progressive vote, not to mention the rising Greens......

Yeah and we mustn't overstate the uniqueness of this. Like the nationalist element makes it slightly different but what you're saying about a fragmenting left vote. With the exception of Spain and Portugal it seems to be a huge and, I think, really important European trend - see the current German polls where the greens have overtaken the SPD.

May need to be part of some deal where they get their independence referendum and the UK gets shot of FPTP- which post Scottish independence won't particularly affect Scotland. Hell. A more progressive UK will be better for an independent Scotland than an English nationalist one.
Would be quite a gamble on the SNP's part though and certainly can't be phrased in that way before any election.

Yeah and I think - they can't say it - but the SNP are happier with a Tory government they can position themselves against than a Labour government. I don't think they'd agree to a coalition (because they're cleverer and better at politics than the Lib Dems), but I think they'd go for a confidence and supply agreement but make every vote very politically painful for Labour because it can increase the chances of an indeendent Scotland.

Also worth bearing in mind the same thing often gets said about Labour. FPTP is good for them as it ensures a two party system where they dominate the left....But this sort of tribal football-politics way of looking at things is the key problem that needs breaking. What is best for the Labour Party or SNP is not necessarily what is best for their aims. Labour/SNP victory just for the sake of Labour/SNP victory is doing things wrong.

But I think people can be a bit naive about the goals of the SNP. Their goal is an independent Scotland, not a more progressive UK. So working with them will be a challenge for Labour.

[celedhring]

Tony Blair is definitely the Johan Cruyff of Labour, if Cruyff played Mourinho football 

Yes. An Italian Cruyff. But you know he was this alien to the Labour tradition and basically said "if you stop doing all these things you love doing and start doing these new and uncomfortable things you will win" and he did. But then there's inevitable reaction of all the people who love Labour doing all those things even if they're losing (perhaps especially if they're losing - I think there is a streak in the British left that is more comfortable in opposition).

Yeah, the metaphor is imperfect. Cruyff came and implemented a winning style that was novel to the club (Barça didn't really have a footballing identity before he started coaching). Which is what Blair did to Labour in the 1990s. Then, in Cruyff, that style became identified with ideological purity and purists (like myself  ) demand it to be mantained even in defeat. Now, the Third Way hasn't quite become that, quite the opposite in fact 

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, the metaphor is imperfect. Cruyff came and showed a winning style that was novel to the club (Barça didn't really have a footballing identity before he started coaching). Which is what Blair did to Labour in the 1990s. Then, in Cruyff, that style became identified with ideological purity and purists (including myself  ) demand it to be mantained even in defeat. Now, Blairism hasn't quite become that 

I think you'd be surprised. There are Blairite ultras who are attacking Starmer for not moving enough. If we don't win with Starmer and a soft-left approach (a very real possibility) or just don't make enough progress then, the Blairite purists will be back

Edit: I suppose where it gets different is the Blairites don't do it because they love the style in spite of results, they love the style but also believe it's the only way to get results and any deviation (from Gordon Brown to Corbyn) will be punished and lose.

[celedhring]

Edit: I suppose where it gets different is the Blairites don't do it because they love the style in spite of results, they love the style but also believe it's the only way to get results and any deviation (from Gordon Brown to Corbyn) will be punished and lose.

In our case it's pure Spanish quixotism, "better honor without ships than ships without honor" 

[Duque de Bragança]

What's with you and railroads (and coal mines)?

Railways are the path to prosperity and equality.  There's a huge correlation between towns that kept their railways and towns that haven't gone to shit (and the connected far right fuck wittery).
I'm also a strong believer in the strain of thought that car focussed urban design was one of the great mistakes of the 20th century which was utterly destructive to social cohesion. 
Plus the environment is nice.

Tyr for HS2 to the North and Scotland!

[Josquius]

What's with you and railroads (and coal mines)?

Railways are the path to prosperity and equality.  There's a huge correlation between towns that kept their railways and towns that haven't gone to shit (and the connected far right fuck wittery).
I'm also a strong believer in the strain of thought that car focussed urban design was one of the great mistakes of the 20th century which was utterly destructive to social cohesion. 
Plus the environment is nice.

Tyr for HS2 to the North and Scotland!

Definitely. The most sensible North East rather than North West route please.

[Barrister]

Yeah and I think - they can't say it - but the SNP are happier with a Tory government they can position themselves against than a Labour government. I don't think they'd agree to a coalition (because they're cleverer and better at politics than the Lib Dems), but I think they'd go for a confidence and supply agreement but make every vote very politically painful for Labour because it can increase the chances of an indeendent Scotland.

Back in 2008 we had a political mini-crises in Canada.  Conservatives had a few weeks earlier won a minority government.  The opposition Liberals and NDP signed an agreement to form a coalition, and signed a confidence and supply agreement with the BQ - the Quebec sovereignists.

Turns out that even though the BQ were not going to be a part of government, the mere fact they had signed an agreement to support such a government was highly unpopular with both Quebec sovereignists, and with the Rest of Canada.  Harper of course prorogued Parliament and the deal had fallen apart by the time Parliament returned.

So - it's very, very tricky to rely on the support of a political party that wants to break up your country.

[Sheilbh]

Back in 2008 we had a political mini-crises in Canada.  Conservatives had a few weeks earlier won a minority government.  The opposition Liberals and NDP signed an agreement to form a coalition, and signed a confidence and supply agreement with the BQ - the Quebec sovereignists.

Turns out that even though the BQ were not going to be a part of government, the mere fact they had signed an agreement to support such a government was highly unpopular with both Quebec sovereignists, and with the Rest of Canada.  Harper of course prorogued Parliament and the deal had fallen apart by the time Parliament returned.

So - it's very, very tricky to rely on the support of a political party that wants to break up your country.

Yeah - I can believe. It's incredibly annoying dealing with English progressives who think the SNP are their friends

The slight nuance in the UK is that lots of left-wing English people kind of back the SNP. Like they are all like "Oh if I lived in Scotland I'd definitely vote for independence" - largely because of the Brexit vote. And on the other hand lots of conservatives resent Scotland because they "take" English money for public services (in actual fact only London and the South-East are net contributors so everywhere, including most of England "take" money - that's what being a country is about ).

Plus the SNP, I think, are one of the best run, most efficient political parties going now - they remind me of New Labour in their pomp. It is just brutally effective party line and media management. I think they'd make mincemeat out of the Labour Party or the Lib Dems (I mean, see 2010-5 ) in coalition negotiations.

[Tamas]

To show the state we are in, this is newsworthy on the Guardian's daily live news coverage:

Arlene Foster, Northern Ireland's first minister, has confirmed that she has spoken to Boris Johnson today.

YES, the prime minister IS actually around and talking to people. Sometimes.

[garbon]

To show the state we are in, this is newsworthy on the Guardian's daily live news coverage:

Arlene Foster, Northern Ireland's first minister, has confirmed that she has spoken to Boris Johnson today.

YES, the prime minister IS actually around and talking to people. Sometimes.

I did hear on BBC breakfast this morning that the Welsh first minister said he's had one short conversation with Johnson since May.

[Sheilbh]

Pretty extraordinary comments from a former PM - especially one defined by her loyalty to her party:
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1308088770181369856?s=20

In fairness to May she always "got" the issues of the union and actually cared about the union....

[Josquius]

Johnson has been hiding out in Italy lately right?

[Sheilbh]

Johnson has been hiding out in Italy lately right?

No

Perugia regional airport released a statement about the number of recent celebrity visitors they've had (Tony Blair, Luis Suarez and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson) over the weekend of 11-14 September.

Number 10 denied this very strongly and stated that it was Johnson's son's christening in Westminster Cathedral (didn't know he was Catholic - it is suprising for a man with so many wives and an indeterminate number of children). Westminster Cathedral confirmed they were christening his son and that Johnson was there.

The President of Perugia Airport (love to know when they replaced the King of Perugia Airport) subsequently issued a statement that there'd been confusion with Tony Blair and "British Prime Minister" and Boris Johnson categorically had not been through Perugia airport

Though I'm seeing a few conspiracy theories doing the round that this is all a cover-up of.....something?

Edit: Of course if it wasn't the Tony Blair issue I imagine there is some slightly dissheveled, blond Englishman on holiday checking his Twitter by the pool thinking to himself "oh no...."