Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Zanza]

He still has close to five years. Maybe it will all work out after all...

Here is the complete text by the way:
https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/

[Tamas]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/19/vigilantes-on-a-mission-to-reunite-owners-with-their-stolen-bikes

A Facebook group searching for each others' stolen bikes. What could go wrong.

Incidentally there was a similar online vigilante group in Hungary who started out recovering lost bikes and updating videos when the police they called out would arrive etc. These have gradually "evolved" into public shaming of various petty criminals they helped tracked down and then to just public shaming whoever they didn't like.

[Tamas]

lol Hungary will proudly support Liam Fox for the WTO boss role (as well as Amina Mohamed former Kenyan foreign minister).

[celedhring]

One of our largest newspapers has an op-ed today comparing the state of Labour with FC Barcelona, which is NOT A GOOD THING. Are things that fucked up? 

(wish they had an English version of it, the author compares Starmer to Koeman, which I guess makes Setién Corbyn, again I'm not sure who comes out less flattered by that comparison)

[Sheilbh]

One of our largest newspapers has an op-ed today comparing the state of Labour with FC Barcelona, which is NOT A GOOD THING. Are things that fucked up? 

(wish they had an English version of it, the author compares Starmer to Koeman, which I guess makes Setién Corbyn, again I'm not sure who comes out less flattered by that comparison)

Seems a bit harsh


Labour and Tories are now both at 40% in the polls as well. At the election (in December!) the Tories got 44% and Labour got 32%.

The slight niggle is that from what I understand those polls don't show much movement of 2019 voters, so it may be that Labour is basically back to 2017 and strengthening in areas it is already strong (cities with high levels of graduates). Plus, structurally, Labour needs to be way ahead of the Tories to win an election because until 2015 Labour could rely on about 35-40 seats from Scotland and now they're lucky to get 5. The Tories have always done better in England (and recently Wales) and are actually still ahead of Labour in Scotland, but Labour need to do very, very well to counter the loss of Scottish seats to the SNP.

I'd slightly query who wrote the op-ed as here, some of the more prominent Corbynistas are having a bit of an issue accepting the polls.

[Josquius]

Yeah, I'd be curious what they're saying, as Labour seem to be in quite a good place right now. Starting from a low point from where its hard not to be trending upwards and locked out of power for some time to come due to the way the system is setup...but trending upwards.

I think we're fairly certain that next election there'll be at least some sort of limited coalition between labour and the SNP. No doubt which the tories will use in campaigning to trash labour as threatening the breakup of the UK.
Come what may its clear Labour have to support democratic reform in the UK. If we were a democracy the tories would never get anywhere near power in their current state.

[celedhring]

It's the Spanish correspondent of that newspaper in England (so not really an op-ed?), who often writes opinion columns on UK politics. He essentially decries the fact that Labor is tacking to the right and Blairite ways, and not putting forward a truly transformative project, now that the tories have put forward and won theirs. So he essentially compares it to Barça abandoning tiki-taka for pragmatism.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/internacional/20200921/483586513124/labour-ingles-igual-barca.html

[Sheilbh]

I think we're fairly certain that next election there'll be at least some sort of limited coalition between labour and the SNP. No doubt which the tories will use in campaigning to trash labour as threatening the breakup of the UK.

I think it's far too soon to tell. For a start I don't think Johnson will be running again (which is why I think Starmer needs to build a brand beyond competence). But also Labour plus SNP is 250 seats which is still 76 seats short of a majority. Throw in the Lib Dems, Plaid and SDLP and you're still probably about 50 seats short of a majority so they need a big swing, in England. Of course that is difficult when you will then be running government with a bunch of nationalists.

Come what may its clear Labour have to support democratic reform in the UK. If we were a democracy the tories would never get anywhere near power in their current state.

The party that benefits most from FPTP is the SNP. If you're in government with them there is zero chance of voting reform. The SNP did very well in 2019, but they got 45% (so basically not a million miles from the Tories nationwide on 44%) and won 48 of the 59 Scottish seats. They would have far less leverage in Westminster without FPTP and certainly wouldn't be the third party.

[Tamas]

It's the Spanish correspondent of that newspaper in England (so not really an op-ed?), who often writes opinion columns on UK politics. He essentially decries the fact that Labor is tacking to the right and Blairite ways, and not putting forward a truly transformative project, now that the tories have put forward and won theirs. So he essentially compares it to Barça abandoning tiki-taka for pragmatism.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/internacional/20200921/483586513124/labour-ingles-igual-barca.html

Maybe but perhaps being a bit mellow on radicalism will work out for them by the time of the next election in 5 years, because the Tory transformative project in practical terms is to scorch the earth so that the currently 2nd in line rich people can take over the first spots.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Last week the Spectator magazine dumped on Johnson from a great height. I take this very seriously as they are an important part of the Johnson fan club. I think he will be gone some time next year.

Meanwhile Starmer has done a good job so far; but at some point will have to display some policies. I think these policies can actually be fairly radical (it is what the country wants) but they also need to be convincing. He could do worse than go back to the Beveridge report and talk about the "five giants".......ie "Want... Disease, Ignorance, Squalor and Idleness". Labour has always been a bit soft on the ignorance and idleness components; I think they could get a tremendous amount of support for a plan that attacked all five.

But, you know, I'm probably wrong..............I sometimes think I barely know my own country any more 

[Sheilbh]

It's the Spanish correspondent of that newspaper in England (so not really an op-ed?), who often writes opinion columns on UK politics. He essentially decries the fact that Labor is tacking to the right and Blairite ways, and not putting forward a truly transformative project, now that the tories have put forward and won theirs. So he essentially compares it to Barça abandoning tiki-taka for pragmatism.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/internacional/20200921/483586513124/labour-ingles-igual-barca.html

I think it's tough to see where Labour is going at the minute - they are clearly trying to put clear water between them and Corbyn on things like anti-semitism, or suggesting that Germany should be checking with Russia before saying Navalny was poisoned

I think that is sort of fair because at the minute I think the success for Starmer is that he has really emphasised the politics of competence and being competent. I think that's particularly important and works in the context of Johnson and covid. I think it's a trap and a risk if/when the Tories get rid of Johnson. At that point I think he needs more than competence. I'm not sure what the Starmer vision is, but he's on the soft-left which is to the right of Corbyn's wing of the party but to the left of the Blairite wing. But there's no Starmer vision yet but he has built credibility - I think you kind of need to earn the right to have a big ambitious vision, you need voters to listen first and Starmer's got that.

Similarly on Brexit there are no votes to be gained by Labour having a position on this. They've lost - the Tories have an 80 seat majoirty, so it's up to them, let them own it. I similarly don't think there'll be any votes on re-joining. There's a reason none of the Labour leadership campaigns really talked about Europe. Plus we know the ceiling of voters who really, really care about Europe because the Lib Dems exist, the key is catching enough other voters to win a  majority.

It's a bit unfair on Blair who did have some vision - well-funded public services, public service reforms so they're focused on users, constitutional reform and Britain as a modern, progressive European country (Europe was a huge fight in the Labour party until the 90s, the hard-left (Corbynite) tradition always opposed Europe because they saw it as undemocratic and basically favouring bosses while the reformist (Blairite) wing was very pro-Europe because they saw it as reformist and progressive).

And I'd query who the Cruyffists and the Nunists are in Labour history

[Sheilbh]

Last week the Spectator magazine dumped on Johnson from a great height. I take this very seriously as they are an important part of the Johnson fan club. I think he will be gone some time next year.

Yeah I mean he's their old editor they tend to be pretty pro-Johnson but have been very unimpressed. The Mail and the Times have also had some pretty strong attacks on Johnson at the minute.

And I agree I think he'll be gone within the year - my guess is he gets to "do" Brexit and then steps aside. Obviously a lot of the issues with Johnson's government are just his personality flaws, but I do wonder the impact of him being seriously ill with covid. I see the odd clip of him now and again and he still doesn't look 100%.

[celedhring]

And I'd query who the Cruyffists and the Nunists are in Labour history

Tony Blair is definitely the Johan Cruyff of Labour, if Cruyff played Mourinho football 

[Josquius]

As this is a general Brit thread...Corona rather than brexit related but it seems comrade corbyn gets his way as the railways are renationalised.
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/rail-franchising-ended-after-government-admits-the-model-is-no-longer-working/21/09/
Of course, pure privatise the profits and socialise the losses stuff and I have no doubt the tories will sell them off when they get the chance.

The party that benefits most from FPTP is the SNP. If you're in government with them there is zero chance of voting reform. The SNP did very well in 2019, but they got 45% (so basically not a million miles from the Tories nationwide on 44%) and won 48 of the 59 Scottish seats. They would have far less leverage in Westminster without FPTP and certainly wouldn't be the third party.

True.
May need to be part of some deal where they get their independence referendum and the UK gets shot of FPTP- which post Scottish independence won't particularly affect Scotland. Hell. A more progressive UK will be better for an independent Scotland than an English nationalist one.
Would be quite a gamble on the SNP's part though and certainly can't be phrased in that way before any election.

Also worth bearing in mind the same thing often gets said about Labour. FPTP is good for them as it ensures a two party system where they dominate the left....But this sort of tribal football-politics way of looking at things is the key problem that needs breaking. What is best for the Labour Party or SNP is not necessarily what is best for their aims. Labour/SNP victory just for the sake of Labour/SNP victory is doing things wrong.

I  think it's far too soon to tell. For a start I don't think Johnson will be running again (which is why I think Starmer needs to build a brand beyond competence). But also Labour plus SNP is 250 seats which is still 76 seats short of a majority. Throw in the Lib Dems, Plaid and SDLP and you're still probably about 50 seats short of a majority so they need a big swing, in England. Of course that is difficult when you will then be running government with a bunch of nationalists.

With the current state of things I just can't see a route to a majority for Labour.
I am pretty confident that we will see most of the traditional Labour seats who went Tory coming back. Nonetheless there's just too many tribally tory areas in England and with the Lib Dems and Labour splitting the progressive vote, not to mention the rising Greens......

[Tamas]

What's with you and railroads (and coal mines)?