Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[garbon]

I saw that Grayling has taken on some new paid work for 100k for work for 7 hours a week for a year. What legitimate reason could they have for hiring Grayling?

[Sheilbh]

Ah, my bad, I was under the impression that both the US and the EU were guarantors of the Good Friday Agreement.

The EU had zero role that I'm aware of in the actual peace process. The EU was probably a necessary pre-condition because of the single market, because it offered a new shared European identity as a possibility for individuals in Northern Ireland and, frankly, in funding development in Northern Ireland. But in terms of the actual negotiations and the meat of the dispute, they weren't involved. The US was and, as I say, is absolutely essential.

I also think the EU is sort of a very post-modern, post-national, liberal institution and it really seems to struggle with non-economic angles of conflict. The EU exists to surpass that stuff like nationalism, far less religion as a driver of conflict. And I think they really struggle to understand communities that don't accept that. I've also spoken to a friend who worked in Bosnia who said something similar, the EU is really good at funding projects where communities work together, or providing best practice, or even just helping areas economically develop, but the EU is not great at dealing with the issues in the conflict itself (even if individual member states are better at that). So I think EU, even now, sort of can't really comprehend the identity issues involved in all their complexity: political, cultural, religious etc.

Btw, apparently those same Tories that got angry about Biden pronouncing himself on the topic also took offence at the name "Good Friday Agreement", repeatedly calling it "Belfast Agreement" instead. Which is exactly its official name, then?

Both. Good Friday Agreement is more common, but on official documents you'll normally get Good Friday Agreement/Belfast Agreement or the x Agreement (also known as the y Agreement)

It was agreed in Belfast on Good Friday. But Good Friday is a Catholic feast that is "celebrated" in Ireland (until recently pubs had to  close on Good Friday). Whereas I don't think there's a "feast" of Good Friday in the Protestant tradition of the unionists (they're traditionally ultra-Calvinist, Presbyterians influenced by the tradition of the Kirk in Scotland) so it's not marked it's just a day of particularly intense prayer. As I say Good Friday Agreement is more common but it is, typically, the preferred name for nationalists/republicans while Belfast Agreement is typically preferred by unionists/loyalists.

[Tamas]

 

It kinda' reminded me of how amazing it is that the British have a well organised country despite in general being quite cavalier on defining things, like names of stuff. 

[Sheilbh]

It kinda' reminded me of how amazing it is that the British have a well organised country despite in general being quite cavalier on defining things, like names of stuff. 

That's normally negligence, in this case as with a lot in the agreement it's a deliberate ambiguity that allows both communities to sort of accept the same thing.

[Sheilbh]

Surprising literally no-one:

Home Office 'bases immigration policies on anecdotes and prejudice' – MPs
Public accounts committee report accuses department of ignoring evidence and failing to learn from its mistakes
Rajeev Syal
Fri 18 Sep 2020 00.01 BST
Last modified on Fri 18 Sep 2020 04.37 BST

The Home Office has drawn up immigration policies on "anecdote, assumption and prejudice" instead of relying on evidence, an influential parliamentary committee has concluded.

The public accounts committee said Priti Patel's department was unaware of the damage caused by policy failures on "both the illegal and legitimate migrant populations".

In a highly critical report published on Friday, the committee said in summary that Home Office's officials had "no idea" what its £400m annual spending on immigration enforcement achieves.

"We are concerned that if the department does not make decisions based on evidence, it instead risks making them on anecdote, assumption and prejudice," the cross-party committee concluded.

Meg Hillier, chair of the committee, said: "The Home Office has frighteningly little grasp of the impact of its activities in managing immigration. It shows no inclination to learn from its numerous mistakes across a swathe of immigration activities – even when it fully accepts that it has made serious errors.

"It accepts the wreckage that its ignorance and the culture it has fostered caused in the Windrush scandal – but the evidence we saw shows too little intent to change, and inspires no confidence that the next such scandal isn't right around the corner."

The committee was examining the role and function of Immigration Enforcement. This is the directorate within the department responsible for preventing abuse of the immigration system, in light of a critical National Audit Office report, which was released in June.

Officials were questioned by MPs about the department's "compliant environment" policy, which limits access to work, housing, benefits and other government-funded services.

The report said that despite "years of public and political debate and concern", the department still did not know the size of the illegal population in the UK.

The committee reiterated criticism by the NAO, saying the department had not estimated the illegal population in the UK since 2005 and had "no answer" to concerns that "potentially exaggerated figures calculated by others could inflame hostility towards immigrants".

Some of the report examined the legacy of the Windrush scandal, and concluded that the internal culture that created the hostile environment still remains.

The Home Office does not know whether hostile environment policies deterred illegal migration, while a lack of evidence and significant lack of diversity at senior levels has created blind spots in the organisation, the report said.

"Only one member of its executive committee came from a black, Asian or minority ethnic background. The department described the benefits of greater diversity at senior levels for its decision-making, leadership and governance, but acknowledged diversity as being its biggest issue," the report said.

Moving on to the UK's exit from the EU, the report warned officials were "unprepared for the challenges". It added that the department had been unable to provide evidence, when asked in July, that it had begun discussions with EU counterparts on international operations, including regarding "the return of foreign national offenders and illegal migrants".

The committee said it was not convinced that the department was sufficiently prepared to properly safeguard the existing, legal immigrant population in the UK, while also implementing a new immigration system and responding to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The committee gave the Home Office six months to come up with a detailed plan to make sure its decision-making is led by data and evidence so that it can analyse its work, particularly with regard to tackling illegal migration.

Minnie Rahman, campaigns and public affairs manager for the Joint Council for the Welfare of Immigrants, said the report painted a "very accurate picture of a clueless, careless and cold-hearted Home Office. It is but the latest in a slew of reports to slam the Home Office's working culture and practices."

The charity echoed the committee's calls for change, adding: "Immigration policy and practice must be based on robust evidence, proper staff training and a new culture of respect and care for individuals."

Reacting to the report, a Home Office source said: "The home secretary agrees with the assessment made by the public accounts committee of historical issues at the Home Office. She has spoken at great length about how the department puts process before people, and it is why she has committed to implementing the findings of the Wendy Williams review into Windrush."

[Sheilbh]

Geoffrey Cox has tweeted the clip from A Man for All Seasons of More and Cromwell arguing about whether to cut down every law to pursue the devil. I think this is possibly a sub-tweet

[Sheilbh]

Not remotely Brexit related - just our ongoing general inability to do anything - WTF

Hammersmith bridge at increased risk of collapsing into Thames due to warm weather
    Ross Lydall
    @RossLydall
    Jonathan Prynn
    @JonPrynn
    35 minutes ago


Thermometers are being fitted to the deteriorating 133-year-old cast iron structure ( Lucy Young )

Hammersmith bridge was placed on "amber alert" this week as unseasonably high temperatures increased the risk of it collapsing into the Thames.

Thermometers are being fitted to the deteriorating 133-year-old cast iron structure, and the suspension chains are being cooled with water. Engineers warned that if the chains reach 22.5C a "red alert" will be declared.

The bridge was closed to vehicles in April last year, and then to pedestrians and cyclists last month when the "dangerous micro-fractures" widened in the cast iron pedestals that hold the suspension system in place.

Details of the precarious state of the bridge emerged today in a letter from Hammersmith and Fulham council leader Steve Cowan to Transport minister Baroness Vere, sent ahead of the first meeting, on Wednesday, of a "taskforce" established by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps to get the bridge reopened.

Mr Cowan said his council and Richmond council both wanted a temporary solution "in place ASAP – especially by the time the clocks go back" on October 25.

A ferry crossing is being considered but piers or pontoons would have to be built, and high and low tides are a problem. A temporary walking and cycling bridge would cost £27.3m and take nine months to build.

It is understood that the key question of who foots the bill for the bridge repairs was taken off the table at the taskforce meeting.

Hammersmith and Fulham, which owns the bridge, and Transport for London, which has seen its income devastated by a fall in passengers due to Covid restrictions, say they cannot afford to pay. TfL has already provided £25m for interim investigations.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said: "Our taskforce is already considering potential temporary measures, such as a ferry service, and we will sort this matter for Londoners as soon as we can."

Yesterday it emerged that the cost of fully restoring the bridge to allow it to be reopened to cars and buses could be as high as £163m. Stabilising the bridge to allow it to be reopened just to cyclists and pedestrians would cost £46m.

It came as the war of words between Labour-run Hammersmith and Fulham and the Tory Government showed no sign of abating.

Mr Cowan's letter urged Baroness Vere to agree that the bridge should not become "a party-political football".

But he then went on to criticise her boss, Mr Shapps, for posing with Tory mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey on the bridge and making "misleading" comments about the council's efforts to date to get the bridge reopened.

Mr Cowan wrote: "I am concerned Mr Shapps appears to have primarily viewed Hammersmith bridge through the prism of party politicking."

He also asked for "clarification of the advisory role played by Greg Hands, the MP for Chelsea and Fulham and the campaign manager for the Conservative mayoral candidate".

Mr Hands told the Standard: "If H&F council put half as much effort into repairing and reopening the bridge as they do in personal attacks on Conservative politicians, we would all be much better off.

"The last 18 months has been a record of shocking incompetence from them and I am pleased the Government has now stepped in to get this sorted out."

[The Larch]

Engineers warned that if the chains reach 22.5C a "red alert" will be declared.

So London bridges can't even withstand mild autumn temperatures anymore? O how a mighty engineering nation has fallen. 

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - I have no idea what's going on. I normally praise our Victorian engineers because they did build to last - the London sewers are the great example. They're now being upgraded but that hasn't been necessary before because the 19th century engineer decided to build it for double the planned capacity

Apparently Hammersmith Bridge, which is one of the prettiest bridges in London has had repeated structural issues since the 70s because of the weight of modern traffic (and it has been bombed a few times by the IRA and splinter group republicans). It feels like what's happening now is just shuffling of responsibilities/blame between a Labour council and TfL (who report to a Labour Mayor) and a Tory government

It is a lovely bridge too

[The Larch]

If the issue is the weight of modern traffic maybe it can be turned into a pedestrian/cyclist bridge, then.

[Josquius]

I read about this bridge a few weeks ago. It's pretty surprising as it's in London. Outside of London this has been going on for years.
In Newcastle the Tyne Bridge, probably the most famous symbol of the city, is desperately in need of maintainable but the DfT is trying to fob off responsibility to the (Labour) Council who are struggling just to keep the lights on amidst massive underfunding.
The council of course gets all the blame.

[Duque de Bragança]

If the issue is the weight of modern traffic maybe it can be turned into a pedestrian/cyclist/e-scooter rider bridge, then.

Hipster-fixed! 

[Zanza]

It is June 24th, 2025 and Britons are celebrating their 10th annual Independence Day. They have so much to celebrate. The United Kingdom is now Europe's foremost knowledge-based economy.

It leads the world in biotech, law, education, the audio-visual sector and financial services and it is the global software design capital. New industries, from 3D printing to driverless cars, have sprung up around the country. Older industries like steel production and shipping have revived remarkably.

The only question on the minds of the revellers as they watch the fireworks stream across the clear summer sky is why Britain waited so long to leave the EU.

It had all been so easy in the end. After the immediate shock, the Europeans had come to their senses and realised that there was no point in fighting reality. Terms were agreed easily enough: Britain withdrew from the EU's political structures and institutions but retained free access to the single market.

By the time the UK formally left the EU on July 1st, 2019, it had already replicated all the EU's external trade deals. But it had also concluded much more liberal deals with the US, China, India and Australia. All done in record time and fully ready to become operational as soon as Brexit went into effect.

And as for all that Irish Border nonsense, it was never an issue. Why? Because Ireland, along with Denmark and the Netherlands, has also left the EU.

By June 2025, Ireland is one of 22 member states in a new British-led free trade bloc that stretches from Norway to Turkey and from the Aran Islands to Ukraine's border with Russia. The Irish referendum on Irexit took place in 2020, and because the UK was so obviously flourishing outside the EU, the result was never in doubt.

**

This is not science fiction. Well it is, but it is not meant to be. This is the exact scenario put before UK voters on June 21st, 2016, two days before they voted in the referendum, by the leading Brexiteer intellectual (and then Tory MEP) Daniel Hannan. This is what they were going to get and all they had to do was put a mark on a ballot paper.

Hannan's fantasia was not, in Brexitworld, extreme. This is the future the voters were promised. The proposition in 2016 was not (yet) "no pain, no gain". It was "all gain, no pain".

In itself, Brexit is a perfectly respectable idea. There would even be something admirable in saying to voters: national pride matters more to us than material comfort. This is going to hurt, but we should do it because we just can't stand being in the EU with all those merely ordinary countries.

But this is emphatically not the choice UK voters were offered. What was dangled before them was the idea that, in effect, no choice had to be made at all. You can, in Boris Johnson's infamous formulation, eat the cake and still have the cake. You can leave the EU and have all the benefits of being in the EU – plus all the benefits of being outside.

The remarkable thing is not that just over half of them voted for this best of all possible worlds, but that almost half voted against.

In trying to understand the state of the Brexit project now, we have to go back and ask: what did the Brexiteers themselves really think about this fantasy future? More to the point – were they lying to voters or only to themselves? They divide, I think, into three categories: believers, opportunists and disruptors.

Hannan, I'm sure, was (and is) a true believer, which is to say, he is sincerely deluded. He is part of a hard core of anti-EU ideologues. They are driven by two articles of faith. One is that Britain is innately and naturally great – therefore, if this greatness has gone behind a cloud (the EU), it just needs to blow the cloud away and its happy people will be bathed again in the warming rays of a red-white-and-blue sun. The other is that regulation kills wealth creation, and so, cut loose from Brussels "red tape", every industry in the UK will automatically thrive.

The opportunists are embodied, of course, by Johnson. Does he believe the fantasy or not? To ask the question is to misunderstand him – the only things he believes in are his own destiny, his own convenience, his own pleasure.

All of these are best served by acting out the make-believe story. And, as any method actor will tell you, you perform best when you convince yourself that the role-play is real. You suspend your disbelief so that your audience will do likewise.

The chief of the disruptors is Dominic Cummings. For Cummings, Brexit is not primarily about the EU at all. It is a wrecking ball aimed at the British institutions he despises: parliament, the judiciary, the Tory Party, the civil service, the BBC, Oxbridge. He (rightly) perceived that Brexit would radically destabilise his own country. For him, that's the point.

For all the political chaos it has unleashed, the Brexit project has remained viable because it has been able to keep these three kinds of motivation more or less together. They have overlapped sufficiently.

The Hannan types thought they could use the opportunists to get them to the promised land. Johnson liked the fantasists' airy scenarios because they saved him the bother of having to have a plan or engage with details. Cummings could justify the disruption by telling himself that a Hannanesque utopia lay just the far side of it.

But two realities have refused to bend themselves to the Brexiteers' wills. The EU, inexplicably and maliciously, has not seen sense and given Britain a self-renewing supply of free cake. And Ireland has stupidly not left the EU. These actualities have undermined both the fantasist and the opportunist positions.

On the one hand, Hannan and his fellow idealists look increasingly like one those cults that promised the Rapture on a certain date and are devastated to find themselves boringly alive on the same old Earth the next morning.

On the other, Johnson's opportunism is running out of road. He can't convince anyone (even himself?) that he believes his own bluster about the "golden age" that is a-coming by and by. The performance is becoming an embarrassment even (perhaps especially) to his own fans.

And that leaves only the disruptor. If you hate almost all of Britain's institutions in the way Cummings does, the idea of Brexit as the dynamite that will explode under them is not failing.

It is succeeding far beyond expectations. Who would have thought that the prestige of the British state could be brought so low that it could not even manage to honour an international treaty for nine months?

It may be floundering in every other respect, but as a machine for the destruction of what Britain used to mean, Brexit is tearing triumphantly ahead.

Fintan O'Toole Sep 19

Posted mainly to laugh at Hannah's delusional text again.

[Oexmelin]

If the issue is the weight of modern traffic maybe it can be turned into a pedestrian/cyclist bridge, then.

It's too late for that. It's a cast iron bridge, and the once micro fractures are now too big. It's closed to foot traffic even now.

[The Brain]

Is Hannan on track to deliver his vision?