Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

I think you both raise good points and we will never know for sure. As time goes by, freak accidents of history start to look more and more like deeply seated and established certainties.

[garbon]

I continue to hold Miliband is the best PM we've never had.
Completely rips into Johnson:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWp6GnQT1uY

Alas the reasons why he failed are clear. Completely unpolished and nerdy. But thats why I like him dammit.

What a sulky child.

[Josquius]

I continue to hold Miliband is the best PM we've never had.
Completely rips into Johnson:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWp6GnQT1uY

Alas the reasons why he failed are clear. Completely unpolished and nerdy. But thats why I like him dammit.

What a sulky child.

Its right to feel angry about the government breaking international law it has itself agreed upon, no?

[Sheilbh]

I think he means Johnson, no?

[garbon]

Yes, the person who was pouting in that video.

[Zanza]

It expires at the end of this year. The WA basically sets out areas of EU law that will continue to apply in the UK (for this year) and in exchange the UK is treated as it were an EU member state. At the end of this year (assuming there's no extension) that ceases to apply and the UK becomes a third country that isn't subject to EU law and isn't treated like an EU member state. There are bits that will carry on running (unless they're superceded by another agreement) such as the NI protocol, or the protocol dealing with the UK bases in Cyprus or Gibraltar and protecting the rights of residents (EU and UK) in different countries before the end of the transition.

But it's not a long term treaty generally. That's the entire point this just sets out the divorce - everything else is being negotiated now.

As you said, considerable parts of the WA, not just the NI protocol, are valid indefinitely or at least will create obligations for decades, e.g. the "39 billion", which was never a lump sum payable immediately.  So I don't get the "expired". Some of it is only relevant for the Transition Period or the time right after it, but a lot of it is there to stay.

[Sheilbh]

Read an FT article about where Brexit ranks in foreign policy consideration for Germany, but I guess it is similar for e.g. France, with slight nuances. Brexit probably ranks among the top ten, but psychologically, the EU has concluded that there will be no deal or a very thin deal. Even the British now breaking the WA is no biggie. The EU can easily establish a border for goods in Ireland now and blame English nationalists. Easiest PR operation in history. 

Yes - I've no doubt the UK would be blamed (rightly) if it breached the Northern Irish protocol. But I don't think the fact that they're border posts with an EU flag would make a great deal of difference to hard-line Republicans. It would still be physical infrastructure on a border they don't recognise and they'd probably still get bombed/burned out which is the risk.

Ranking Brexit, it would for me at least now come after Russia (Nordstream, Nawalny, interventions in Ukraine, Syria, Belarus, propaganda), Turkey (conflict with Greece and Cyprus on economic zones, intervention in Libya and Syria, millions of refugees), USA (international order, trade war), China (economic interests, less so Uighurs and HK), autocratic tendencies in Hungary and Poland, corruption in Bulgaria, West Balkan integration into EU, economic malaise due to Covid, and last but not least climate change...

However, the Tory antics offer better entertainment and discussions online, so it is still worth following 

From everything I've read the French are far, far more engaged than official Germany. Which makes sense - I'd point out that on your list you've got Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Belarus and the West Balkans. Geography matters and like it or not, another state on the periphery of Europe is going to be leaving a common framework/organisation that provides lots of contact and some predictability. I'm not saying the UK's about to become as problematic as those states but how and in what way and for what purposes Germany wants to work with (or not) that state should probably be something people are thinking about.

I also read a thing about French officials/think tanks etc getting in a bit of a panic in the last few months because they realised they didn't have relevant British commentators at their events. So if there was a panel or a seminar with someone giving a British perspective, it would always be someone who was a Minister or official in the New Labour or the Coalition governments. No doubt they were perceptive and interesting, but they had zero insight into the people actually running Britain (whether May or Johnson) which is the value of having them at the event. It'd be like relying on Thatcher or Major aides in the early days of Tony Blair.

On a wider issue with Russia and China I'm not sure if Germany is just quite cynical or a sort of 90s, neo-liberal Rip van Winkle. Because there were a couple of clips of Merkel that were shared quite widely by foreign policy commentators in the UK recently. One was a comment about Russia and I think Nawalny but noting that those political state issues were separate from commercial, private sector decisions such as Nordstream. The other was six minutes about relations with China and the mention of Hong Kong and Xinjian lasted about 10 seconds. As I say I don't know if it's just a cynical, cold-eyed decision to prioritise business and commercial contacts or if it's a naive sort of 90s view that commercial relationships are separate from political issues and in the long-run those business relationships will improve relations, as I say I think it's naive because China and Russia certainly don't view it that way and use their commercial relationships as leverage for political ends. I also think Germany is fairly out of step in terms of big Western countries on this - whoever wins in the US there is broad, bipartisan support for a far tougher approach to China. The UK has learned its lesson from the Salisbury poisonings, Huawei, Hong Kong etc. France has cancelled some big contracts with Russia and is talking up the need for more resilience in the face of China. Germany seems to be doing it's own thing on this.

[The Brain]

If the Irish think that having a border isn't worth it they can leave the EU. Problem solved.

[Sheilbh]

As you said, considerable parts of the WA, not just the NI protocol, are valid indefinitely or at least will create obligations for decades, e.g. the "39 billion", which was never a lump sum payable immediately.  So I don't get the "expired". Some of it is only relevant for the Transition Period or the time right after it, but a lot of it is there to stay.

I think it's probably semantics to be honest and we're saying the same thing.

[Zanza]

Germany is not really cynical, but non-chalant with China. Economics trump human rights considerations. When it comes to economic ties, Germany is at the forefront of driving the EU-China Investment Pact. There seems to be little to gain from joining a more hard line US policy.

With regards to Russia, Germany tried so far to both oppose Russia's expansionism in Eastern Europe without breaking economic ties. This might now change with the prominent Nordstream 2 project. Merkel is trying to make it look like the EU decided to stop it.

That said, Britain is an important partner, probably same relevance as Russia or China, but there is currently little to gain by focusing on them. An FTA will not happen, Britain is completely driven by anti-European ideology, so cooperation in any other field is unlikely. General trade will just continue anyway. And in geopolitics, Germany and Britain will just be as aligned as before without much effort by Germany.

[Zanza]

Yes - I've no doubt the UK would be blamed (rightly) if it breached the Northern Irish protocol. But I don't think the fact that they're border posts with an EU flag would make a great deal of difference to hard-line Republicans. It would still be physical infrastructure on a border they don't recognise and they'd probably still get bombed/burned out which is the risk.

It will be border post flying the Irish Republican flag of course. Implementation of customs borders is done by the member states, not the EU. Bombing them will bomb Irish officers acting on behalf of the Irish Republic because of English nationalists.

[Zanza]

If the Irish think that having a border isn't worth it they can leave the EU. Problem solved.

Exactly. The EU did what it could to safeguard the non-existance of a border. But if that's not possible with the British, then Ireland has to erect a border. I guess the EU can provide consultancy and some initial money for that, but no more.

[Sheilbh]

It will be border post flying the Irish Republican flag of course. Implementation of customs borders is done by the member states, not the EU. Bombing them will bomb Irish officers acting on behalf of the Irish Republic because of English nationalists.

Hard-line republicans don't believe the Irish state is the Irish Republic - because it tacitly acknowledges and cooperates with British occupation of the North. Ireland cannot be a republic until it is all of Ireland. This is why in Eamon de Valera's first "republican" constitution the name of the state was Eire, not the Republic of Ireland. Even now the name of the state is Eire/Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is its legal definition/description - there's actually EU guidance for official documents not to refer to the Republic of Ireland or the Irish Republic because the "Republic" has not yet been achieved. Republicans, sadly, have killed Irish police and soldiers before - just as loyalists have killed police and soldiers in Northern Ireland.

One other slightly weird thought I saw recently was even if the backstop is implemented, unionists will be relying on Irish governments to argue their case in Europe because they always just relied on London to protect their interests and never actually built any political connections of their own in Europe. It's going to be very ironic seeing Irish political leaders (who are all nationalists) making the case for the unionist community - luckily I think Irish politics is grown up enough to do that.

Germany is not really cynical, but non-chalant with China. Economics trump human rights considerations. When it comes to economic ties, Germany is at the forefront of driving the EU-China Investment Pact. There seems to be little to gain from joining a more hard line US policy.

I mean that sounds pretty cynical

With regards to Russia, Germany tried so far to both oppose Russia's expansionism in Eastern Europe without breaking economic ties. This might now change with the prominent Nordstream 2 project. Merkel is trying to make it look like the EU decided to stop it.

Hopefully that works because I think Russia does need opposing - I saw the Russian government was proposing new constitutional language that included really sweeping language about protecting Russians overseas which feels directly aimed at the Baltic states. But as I say I think any leverage Russia has commercially/economically will be used to advance their politics.

That said, Britain is an important partner, probably same relevance as Russia or China, but there is currently little to gain by focusing on them. An FTA will not happen, Britain is completely driven by anti-European ideology, so cooperation in any other field is unlikely. General trade will just continue anyway. And in geopolitics, Germany and Britain will just be as aligned as before without much effort by Germany.

Yeah I'm not sure about any of this to be honest. I think there's a lot of uncertainty but I get the sense that the only people thinking about what European politics (ie beyond the EU - Russia, Turkey etc) should look like after Brexit are in Paris

[The Brain]

I must say I feel less than secure with an EU country that makes policy with an eye towards terrorist approval. Maybe Ireland should get rid of its terrorists? Just a thought.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Germany seems to be doing it's own thing on this.

not the first time that Germany is doing it's own thing. Remember 2015...