Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Zoupa]

Omni Modo Fidelis

[Zoupa]

https://youtu.be/Azr7WDmeAxA

[Iormlund]

Can Spain really hold out if 26 nations want to let Scotland in? I highly doubt it.

Anyone can. That's what the rulebook says. You really think Spain is going to risk losing 7 million people and 20% of its GDP? For what exactly?

And who would pressure Spain? How many countries do you think are keen on the rest of them being able to gang up on one member?

[Tamas]

Not to mention lesser players in that game, like Italy with some northerners keen to shed their southern brethren, or to a lesser degree Romania always paranoid about Hungarian (well, Szekely) calls for autonomy.

I don't think these other countries would mind Scotland joining, much, but they sure would not bend over backwards to fight for it.

[The Larch]

I dunno...some SNP folks might be thinking of the long game.  Rather than wait another "generation" (which is the Tory rhetoric on when another independence referendum can be held), they might decide a rogue breakout is their best chance while anti-union sentiment is high.  It probably won't be too long (in years anyway) before the EU "gets over" the fact that Russia swiped up the Crimea, and even if Scotland had to sit out in the cold for a bit, they might bet that the EU would "get over" a harsh break-away in a few years and be all "ok fine, whatever" if they manage a de facto separation.  And if that is the SNP calculus, I am not so sure they would be all that wrong.

There's no "The EU" here to consider. Accession is a matter of unanimity.

In a generation the situation in Catalonia will be -- if anything -- even worse, thanks to nationalist control of both education and media.

Can Spain really hold out if 26 nations want to let Scotland in? I highly doubt it.

Are you sure that all the other 26 countries would happily accept a rogue Scotland into the EU?

[Sheilbh]

But as I say if Scotland's at the point where it's applying for EU membership there will have been a settlement. It may just be rogue in getting there. I can't see any situation where Scotland unilaterally declares independence and the EU entertains an application.

Labour race is falling into place. Corbyn ticket is Rebecca Long-Bailey as leader (who I find rather robotic in media appearances and speeches) and Angela Rayner as deputy leader who I quite like (). Rumour of Lisa Nandy and David Lammy running on a joint ticket for the more soft left tendency (also nice London+Northern Labour - and Lisa Nandy's done excellent work on setting up the Centre for Towns). I think Dawn Butler's focused on the deputy leadership, which leaves Jess Philips, Keir Starmer, Yvette Cooper and Emily Thornberry to work out what they're doing/who they represent.

[Valmy]

It is nice to see Generation X getting some leadership roles in somebody's country.

Anyway I see no Scots. Isn't part of the problem here is that Labour has been crushed by the SNP in Scotland and they typically relied on Scottish seats back when they used to win? Or is Labour just giving up and figuring that Scotland will either leave or vote nationalist even if they don't?

[Josquius]

David Lammy is great

[Tamas]

I guess we have taken a big step toward figuring out whether Johnson is a true no-dealer: yes, he is.

Today he plans to have a bill voted on that would forbid extension of the transitional period contained in the as-of-yet-unsigned Withdrawal Agreement, thereby guaranteeing a severance of all ties with the EU this time next year, as there's no way a comprehensive deal will be signed in such a timeframe.

[garbon]

So much for the pivot.

[Duque de Bragança]

Can Spain really hold out if 26 nations want to let Scotland in? I highly doubt it.

Auld Alliance coming through

What's next ? La France des 130 départements ?  Meaning Catalonia...   

[Agelastus]

I guess we have taken a big step toward figuring out whether Johnson is a true no-dealer: yes, he is.

Today he plans to have a bill voted on that would forbid extension of the transitional period contained in the as-of-yet-unsigned Withdrawal Agreement, thereby guaranteeing a severance of all ties with the EU this time next year, as there's no way a comprehensive deal will be signed in such a timeframe.

Disturbing.

That leaves only a bare bones deal or almost total alignment; nothing in between unless they fudge and move some aspects to other talks that can go past the deadline as being not "officially" part of the negotiation.

Which reading the BBC seems to be something Gove hinted at but I haven't seen the actual interview. And even if that's what the Tories intend there's no reason for the EU to agree to it.

[Syt]

I can't shake the feeling that we're witnessing the final phase of Great Britain's descent from world power to minor power.

[Josquius]

Britain since WW1 has been byzanium in miniature. Its now the 15th century.

[Tamas]

I am having SUCH a de ja vu.

It's like Fidesz' election victory in Hungary, 2010. I found them despicable but I thought at least things would move forward with their big majority. Well, they moved forward alright.

And still now, Johnson makes the first move that is almost certainly to deliberately fuck up Brexit, and we are here hoping that SURELY he cannot be this big a prick and it is just an elaborate plot to still keep things nice and cosy.

"SURELY they won't go THAT" far will be on Hungary's gravestone, I hope it won't be on the UK's.