Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Valmy]

Perhaps they have something to say in a few days after wiping the bootprints off their faces.

They got their highest percentage of the vote since 2010 by a significant margin.

[Josquius]

This is doing the rounds and is telling

[celedhring]

Ah, electoral reform, the thing that no majority government will ever initiate because the existing system put them in power to begin with (unless the reform is to make it even more favourable, of course).

[Grey Fox]

Ah, electoral reform, the thing that no majority government will ever initiate because the existing system put them in power to begin with (unless the reform is to make it even more favourable, of course).

You need the once in a blue moon winning party that just won a fluke & not a generational change to do it.

So, quite rare.

[Barrister]

Ah, electoral reform, the thing that no majority government will ever initiate because the existing system put them in power to begin with (unless the reform is to make it even more favourable, of course).

Disagree.  The trouble with electoral reform is that while a lot of people can see the flaws with First Past the Post, once you start discussing alternatives there's no agreement on what an alternative should look like.

[Josquius]

Both are true.
And the ruling party will use the lack of agreement to ensure nothing will happen.
Just look at the av ref and all the dodgy tricks used there. The whole thing was a prototype for brexit.

Given labours chances of power are lessened drastically without Scotland we have to hope they form a minority government next election and electoral reform is part of the price.

If the UK was a democracy Labour would suffer. But the left in general would be the winner.

[celedhring]

Ah, electoral reform, the thing that no majority government will ever initiate because the existing system put them in power to begin with (unless the reform is to make it even more favourable, of course).

Disagree.  The trouble with electoral reform is that while a lot of people can see the flaws with First Past the Post, once you start discussing alternatives there's no agreement on what an alternative should look like.

Was talking in general. I.e. Catalonia has no electoral law and we default to the Spanish electoral law because the initiative to change it has always come from the minority parties. Just no incentive for the majority to change it. Only time it was semi-seriously considered was during a minority government in the early 2000s.

[Tonitrus]

I mean I imagine what's being envisioned is a situation where, without permission from Westminster, Sturgeon has the Scottish Parliament pass legislation to enable a referendum. The referendum is held and votes for leaving the union--most likely unionists boycott the referendum as illegitimate due to not being sanctioned, and secession wins overwhelmingly. Then Sturgeon begins to basically assert Scotland is no longer part of the UK, and starts attempting to establish international relations etc. Basically like Catalonia was starting to do in a similar circumstance.

If Scotland goes down that path I do not see essentially any significant country recognizing it as a state, and I see the EU being outright hostile to any associations with Scotland--established entities like the EU aren't going to want to create the precedent of playing nice with essentially rogue breakaway provinces of other countries.

If Scotland left on legal terms under UK law, I think the picture would be quite different yes, because Catalonia had tried to break away illegally definitely is a major reason the EU never would have accepted it.

I dunno...some SNP folks might be thinking of the long game.  Rather than wait another "generation" (which is the Tory rhetoric on when another independence referendum can be held), they might decide a rogue breakout is their best chance while anti-union sentiment is high.  It probably won't be too long (in years anyway) before the EU "gets over" the fact that Russia swiped up the Crimea, and even if Scotland had to sit out in the cold for a bit, they might bet that the EU would "get over" a harsh break-away in a few years and be all "ok fine, whatever" if they manage a de facto separation.  And if that is the SNP calculus, I am not so sure they would be all that wrong. 

[Valmy]

Well it would be a total disaster for the people of Scotland, but hey they elected the SNP so they would probably deserve it.

[Iormlund]

I dunno...some SNP folks might be thinking of the long game.  Rather than wait another "generation" (which is the Tory rhetoric on when another independence referendum can be held), they might decide a rogue breakout is their best chance while anti-union sentiment is high.  It probably won't be too long (in years anyway) before the EU "gets over" the fact that Russia swiped up the Crimea, and even if Scotland had to sit out in the cold for a bit, they might bet that the EU would "get over" a harsh break-away in a few years and be all "ok fine, whatever" if they manage a de facto separation.  And if that is the SNP calculus, I am not so sure they would be all that wrong.

There's no "The EU" here to consider. Accession is a matter of unanimity.

In a generation the situation in Catalonia will be -- if anything -- even worse, thanks to nationalist control of both education and media.

[Sheilbh]

Ah, electoral reform, the thing that no majority government will ever initiate because the existing system put them in power to begin with (unless the reform is to make it even more favourable, of course).

Yeah. I mean here it has traditionally favoured the Tories and Labour, it now also hugely helps the SNP who now have a very efficient vote:

I'm a big believer in electoral reform and think the 3.8 million UKIP votes to 1 seat in 2015 is particularly egregious.

The Labour number has been getting worse since 2010 which suggests they're piling up the votes in the wrong bits of the country - for example my constituency this year went 70% for Labour, which is not helpful in a FPTP system.

Edit: Also the sea-change for Labour from 2010-15 is just another sign of the impact of losing Scotland as a relatively strong Labour area.

[Zoupa]

I mean I imagine what's being envisioned is a situation where, without permission from Westminster, Sturgeon has the Scottish Parliament pass legislation to enable a referendum. The referendum is held and votes for leaving the union--most likely unionists boycott the referendum as illegitimate due to not being sanctioned, and secession wins overwhelmingly. Then Sturgeon begins to basically assert Scotland is no longer part of the UK, and starts attempting to establish international relations etc. Basically like Catalonia was starting to do in a similar circumstance.

If Scotland goes down that path I do not see essentially any significant country recognizing it as a state, and I see the EU being outright hostile to any associations with Scotland--established entities like the EU aren't going to want to create the precedent of playing nice with essentially rogue breakaway provinces of other countries.

If Scotland left on legal terms under UK law, I think the picture would be quite different yes, because Catalonia had tried to break away illegally definitely is a major reason the EU never would have accepted it.

I dunno...some SNP folks might be thinking of the long game.  Rather than wait another "generation" (which is the Tory rhetoric on when another independence referendum can be held), they might decide a rogue breakout is their best chance while anti-union sentiment is high.  It probably won't be too long (in years anyway) before the EU "gets over" the fact that Russia swiped up the Crimea, and even if Scotland had to sit out in the cold for a bit, they might bet that the EU would "get over" a harsh break-away in a few years and be all "ok fine, whatever" if they manage a de facto separation.  And if that is the SNP calculus, I am not so sure they would be all that wrong.

I very much doubt this will happen.

[Zoupa]

I dunno...some SNP folks might be thinking of the long game.  Rather than wait another "generation" (which is the Tory rhetoric on when another independence referendum can be held), they might decide a rogue breakout is their best chance while anti-union sentiment is high.  It probably won't be too long (in years anyway) before the EU "gets over" the fact that Russia swiped up the Crimea, and even if Scotland had to sit out in the cold for a bit, they might bet that the EU would "get over" a harsh break-away in a few years and be all "ok fine, whatever" if they manage a de facto separation.  And if that is the SNP calculus, I am not so sure they would be all that wrong.

There's no "The EU" here to consider. Accession is a matter of unanimity.

In a generation the situation in Catalonia will be -- if anything -- even worse, thanks to nationalist control of both education and media.

Can Spain really hold out if 26 nations want to let Scotland in? I highly doubt it.

[Sheilbh]

Just look at the av ref and all the dodgy tricks used there. The whole thing was a prototype for brexit.

An abject lesson in not letting Nick Clegg near your campaign

If the UK was a democracy Labour would suffer. But the left in general would be the winner.

Maybe. It depends when and depends on the two main parties staying together. It's the Roy Jenkins' view of the 20th century and I think it works a bit.

But I also think it's as likely that the main parties would split and the left would fragment between SDP, the Left and the Greens while the right remains fairly united. That's certainly the experience in Europe.

[Sheilbh]

Can Spain really hold out if 26 nations want to let Scotland in? I highly doubt it.

Auld Alliance coming through