Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Listening to a podcast that's summarised it as good night for the Tories, bad night for Labour and something "cosmically awful" for the Lib Dems.

Basically especially because they sort of caused their own downfall.

[Agelastus]

Sheilbh, is Marina Hyde on the Guardian normally more rational? I've been browsing the Guardian's reaction pieces and come across a piece by her that I can only call "demented".

[mongers]

Listening to a podcast that's summarised it as good night for the Tories, bad night for Lib Dems and something "cosmically awful" for the Labour.

Basically especially because they sort of caused their own downfall.

FYP

[Iormlund]

Yeah. The LibDems at least got a significant vote increase. Labour just imploded.

[mongers]

Yeah. The LibDems at least got a significant vote increase. Labour just imploded.

Yes, there's many people in and around Labour who are in denile about the result and the causes.

So you hear the excuses of media bias etc, rather than Corbyn and some of the policies.

[The Brain]

Yeah. The LibDems at least got a significant vote increase. Labour just imploded.

Yes, there's many people in and around Labour who are in denile about the result and the causes.

So you hear the excuses of media bias etc, rather than Corbyn and some of the policies.

Antinous.

[Sheilbh]

Corbynites already turning on Angela Rayner. Looks like Rebecca Long-Bailey will be their candidate.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Sheilbh, is Marina Hyde on the Guardian normally more rational? I've been browsing the Guardian's reaction pieces and come across a piece by her that I can only call "demented".

It is supposed to be a "sketch" I think. Except it is not at all amusing, unlike John Crace's pieces which I rather enjoy.

[Josquius]

A nice post from Jack Dart:

"So congratulations if you wanted Boris Johnson as pm.

Please don't celebrate too much though as you have work to do. You see us remoaners have spent three and a half years now telling you brexit was wrong but we've finally and completely lost. There's pretty much nothing we can do now to stop it.

So, it's over to you leavers. You need to get yourselves into gear to make it work. We need to see some of these benefits you've been able to see yet unable to properly articulate since 2016.

I hope you don't mind but I've taken the liberty of writing a "to do" list for you.

1. Get brexit done please. When we say done we mean as promised so we'll be looking for trade deals with the EU, Japan, Australia and Canada etc. In fact there's about 40 deals covering 70 countries that need to be done please. Also with the US that doesn't involve the nhs or chlorine. We want what you promised us. That was that we'd be no worse off than when we were an EU member. You need to crack on as this was promised by the end of Jan. You have seven weeks.

2. The NHS. We want the cash that was promised please. £350 million per week is about 72000 nurses so please get recruiting. This is important.

3. Scotland. Ok so these guys were promised they would remain in the EU if they remained in the UK. They're pretty pissed. In fact they've voted almost exclusively for the SNP so they might want to leave. Equally you said the UK wouldn't split so you'll need to both grant Scotland its independence and keep it as part of the United Kingdom. Good luck squaring this circle. NB This is urgent.

4. Northern Ireland. Oooookay then. You've really buggered this one up. There's a chance they could look to reunify with the republic now because they didn't want to brexit. Regardless you've caused instability there where we and they can least afford it. NB This is also urgent.

5. The economy. Johnson keeps talking about unleashing the potential of the country. We need to see this soon if possible. We don't want to see the downturn that "project fear" predicted. We don't want to be poorer. We don't want to lose out.

6. You'll also need to "bring the country back together". This might be tricky as a lot of people seem to be really really angry with each other.

That's as far as I've got. Should keep you busy. So go and get all british about things. Roll up your sleeves, pull your socks up, dig deep and deliver what you promised.

And remember if you fail to deliver any of this it's on you, brexit and Tory voters. You wanted this so badly and now you have it. We honestly hope we're wrong and that you can make a success of this but if you can't then we will forever tell you that we told you so."

[OttoVonBismarck]

I've frankly changed my opinion on Brexit overall. I think that for the EU Boris' election, and with a commanding majority, is probably their best case outcome at this point. It means that whatever happens in the negotiations, the EU will know with certainty that anything they negotiate will be actually supported in Parliament. More importantly it will allow businesses on both sides of the channel to more reliably plan out their futures. Even if Labour had won and cobbled together some potential second referendum, I honestly think for a variety of reasons Britain and the EU were long term not a great marriage.

I think that back in 2015 a lot of us just assumed anything that generated so much economic value has to be great. But one of my chief lessons out of the years that followed, particularly seeing Trump elected and the things he has done--is that the body politic broadly and genuinely cares about many issues quite a bit more than economics. There's a reason socially conservative farmers have not wavered one inch in their slavish worship of Trump even as his party has overseen a host of policies that have set up the country to see the death of the family farm once and for all. When I read story after story about low income people in Kentucky who only have healthcare today because of a program developed by Barack Obama, who are some of Trump's fiercest supporters and want to roll back as much social welfare as they can, and I can go on with stories like this forever. Point being, people care less about economic self interest than I think has been popularly assumed.

I think the long story on Britain's relationship with the EU is Brussels regulations and many other aspects of EU membership tweaked off a sizable portion of the British public, but people were willing to put up with it because of the money. I honestly felt 2015 was just a momentary surge in stupidity, that British society would wake up from when they understood the economic costs of Brexit. If anything the more we know about those costs, the stronger it appears support for Brexit is. The reality is we didn't live in the world we thought we did. We live in a world where people care far more about political tribalism and cultural issues than they do economics, and "it's the economy stupid" was a poor analysis of politics that had somehow risen to primacy of thought for a generation.

[Admiral Yi]

London Labour sounds to me like code for "Labour should have backed Brexit."

[Sheilbh]

Sheilbh, is Marina Hyde on the Guardian normally more rational? I've been browsing the Guardian's reaction pieces and come across a piece by her that I can only call "demented".

I love Marina Hyde -but I've normally read her on football and Prince Andrew.

Yeah. The LibDems at least got a significant vote increase. Labour just imploded.

The Lib Dems were the first opposition party to crack and support an election, which was disastrous for them. Their leader ran the most presidential campaign ("Jo for PM"), and lost her seat and they went from 12 MPs in 2017 to 11. This was hubris on a Greek level.

The only possible upside is they're now second in more seats - after 2017 they were second in only about 70 seats which in first past the post is a difficult base.

[Sheilbh]

London Labour sounds to me like code for "Labour should have backed Brexit."

It's the opposite. London's overwhelmingly Remain - it's second referendum territory. But "London Labour" is a baggy term because the Labour Party in London is huge and it basically goes from the sort-of middle-aged, #FBPE Remainism of Keir Starmer to some really hard-left areas. Historically there's a bit of association with the 1980s "loony left" (many of those policies on racial equality and gay rights are now very mainstream) on social issues with strong left-wing economics in powerful local councils. That was in contrast to the more traditional, union-based and often slightly clientilist party in the North and Scotland.

There is a line in a New Labour memoir, possibly Tony Blair's, about a row between Gordon Brown and, I think, Peter Mandelson. The writer just basically says they don't really understand it and it was some ancestral Scottish Labour v London Labour argument resurfacing.

On OvB's post - I agree with a lot of it and I think Corbyn's fundamental issues were to do with him and security etc rather than economic policy. But ultimately the choice in the UK was Brexit or a Corbyn government. I'm not sure on a basic "it's the economy, stupid" election that it's crazy that lots of people might think the risk of Brexit is lower than the risk of a Corbyn government.

[Sheilbh]

Corbyn writing in the Guardian:

We won the argument, but I regret we didn't convert that into a majority for change
Jeremy Corbyn
We must now ensure that the working class, in all its diversity, is the driving force within our party
Sat 14 Dec 2019 21.02 GMT

We are living in highly volatile times. Two-and-a-half years ago, in the first general election I contested as Labour leader, our party increased its share of the popular vote by 10 percentage points. On Thursday, on a desperately disappointing night, we fell back eight points.

I have called for a period of reflection in the party, and there is no shortage of things to consider. I don't believe these two contrasting election results can be understood in isolation.

The last few years have seen a series of political upheavals: the Scottish independence campaign, Labour's transformation, Brexit, the Labour electoral surge, and now Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" victory. None of that is a coincidence.

The political system is volatile because it is failing to generate stable support for the status quo following the financial crash of 2008. As Labour leader I've made a point of travelling to all parts of our country and listening to people, and I've been continually struck how far trust has broken down in politics.

The gap between the richest and the rest has widened. Everyone can see that the economic and political system is not fair, does not deliver justice, and is stacked against the majority.

That has provided an opening for a more radical and hopeful politics that insists it doesn't have to be like this, and that another world is possible. But it has also fuelled cynicism among many people who know things aren't working for them, but don't believe that can change.

I saw that most clearly in the former industrial areas of England and Wales where the wilful destruction of jobs and communities over 40 years has taken a heavy toll. It is no wonder that these areas provided the strongest backlash in the 2016 referendum and, regrettably for Labour, in the general election on Thursday.

In towns where the steelworks have closed, politics as a whole wasn't trusted, but Boris Johnson's promise to "get Brexit done" – sold as a blow to the system – was. Sadly that slogan will soon be exposed for the falsehood it is, shattering trust even further.

Despite our best efforts, and our attempts to make clear this would be a turning point for the whole direction of our country, the election became mainly about Brexit.

A Conservative party prepared to exploit divisions capitalised on the frustration created by its own failure to deliver on the referendum result – to the cost of a Labour party seeking to bring our country together to face the future.

The polarisation in the country over Brexit made it more difficult for a party with strong electoral support on both sides. I believe we paid a price for being seen by some as trying to straddle that divide or re-run the referendum.

We now need to listen to the voices of those in Stoke and Scunthorpe, Blyth and Bridgend, Grimsby and Glasgow, who didn't support Labour. Our country has fundamentally changed since the financial crash and any political project that pretends otherwise is an indulgence.

Progress does not come in a simple straight line. Even though we lost seats heavily on Thursday, I believe the manifesto of 2019 and the movement behind it will be seen as historically important – a real attempt at building a force powerful enough to transform society for the many, not the few. For the first time in decades, many people have had hope for a better future.

That experience, shared by hundreds of thousands of people, cannot be erased. Our task as a movement, and a party that has more than doubled in size, is not over: it now has the urgent task of defending the communities that will come under sustained assault from Boris Johnson's government and the toxic deal he wants with Donald Trump.

And it must set about ensuring that sense of hope spreads and deepens. As socialists we seek to raise people's expectations. People in our country deserve so much more – and they can have it, if we work together to achieve it.

I am proud that on austerity, on corporate power, on inequality and on the climate emergency we have won the arguments and rewritten the terms of political debate. But I regret that we did not succeed in converting that into a parliamentary majority for change.

There is no doubt that our policies are popular, from public ownership of rail and key utilities to a massive house-building programme and a pay rise for millions. The question is, how can we succeed in future where we didn't this time?

There is no quick fix to overcome the distrust of many voters. Patronising them will not win them over. Labour has to earn their trust. That means the patient work of listening and standing with communities, especially as the government steps up its assault. And it means ensuring that the working class, in all its diversity, is the driving force within our party.

The media attacks on the Labour party for the last four and a half years were more ferocious than ever – and of course that has an impact on the outcome of elections. Anyone who stands up for real change will be met by the full force of media opposition.

The party needs a more robust strategy to meet this billionaire-owned and influenced hostility head-on and, where possible, turn it to our advantage.

We have suffered a heavy defeat, and I take my responsibility for it. Labour will soon have a new leader. But whoever that will be, our movement will continue to work for a more equal and just society, and a sustainable and peaceful world.

I've spent my life campaigning for those goals, and will continue to do so. The politics of hope must prevail.

Absolutely enraging

Whoever told the left about the idea of "discourse" and the "Overton window" has a fucking lot to answer for

[mongers]

Why would he and his followers accept any blame, that would undermine their construct*.



* an alternative reality.