Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

I'd agree with that generally. However there is a big "unless the situation materially changes" which brexit definitely counts for.
Also would hope any future referenda are done properly unlike the brexit ref. Massive controls on fake news, significantly more than 50%+1 required, etc...

[Tamas]

I'd agree with that generally. However there is a big "unless the situation materially changes" which brexit definitely counts for.
Also would hope any future referenda are done properly unlike the brexit ref. Massive controls on fake news, significantly more than 50%+1 required, etc...

First of all, if you agree to a vague thing like "unless  the situation materially changes" you are better off just shedding your countrymen like old skin right now because it is nothing easier than finding excuses to apply badly defined caveats like that.

Secondly, you point out why it is a stupid, self-destructive idea to hold simple majority referendums on such profound changes. It's a fucking roll of a die and it significantly changes 60 million lives forever.

[Josquius]

Who says a Scottish referendum has to be a simple majority?

I am sure the lawyers could come up with something better than my vague material change. Brexit without a doubt represents a huge change in what the Scots voted for last time. They're having a tonne of rights stripped which does make the union less appealing.

Overall democracy has to hold. It doesn't stop the second one side gets their way. It a country doesn't want to be part of the union its not right to force them to stay

[Tamas]

Overall democracy has to hold. It doesn't stop the second one side gets their way.

Sure, but then when does it stop? How can you make any kind of long-term plans and live in a stable country if a big portion of it -especially if you happen to live in it- might secede at pretty much any given moment?

[Agelastus]

Secondly, you point out why it is a stupid, self-destructive idea to hold simple majority referendums on such profound changes. It's a fucking roll of a die and it significantly changes 60 million lives forever.

The simple majority is a legacy of earlier referendums, in particular the 1979 referendum on devolution for Scotland where the majority also had to be at least 40% of the electorate. With a 64% turnout the majority in favour of devolution did not reach the second threshold. This had some fairly divisive long term consequences given that for the rest of our electoral system a simple majority sufficed. It's not as if 64% was a particularly derisory turnout, after all.

Amusingly, it was a Labour MP who introduced this amendment.

However, while I don't support "double" thresholds for referenda, I will repeat what I said before the vote in 2016; a narrow win for either leave or remain would be the worst of all possible worlds as it would settle nothing internally. The winner needed a clear 10% over the loser for either the leave or remain side to accept the result as final.

[Sheilbh]

Also voted about quarter past nine. I've moved flat (by about two streets) since the last election and a few more streets since 2016.

But we had a queue of four or five when I turned up (and left) which felt busier than normal for the usual pre-work voters.

Steady stream. Sadly no dogs

[Agelastus]

UK polling Report's active thread suggests that there are reports coming in of significantly higher early turnout compared to 2017.

However, there's also worsening reports concerning the weather later* so it's a toss-up as to whether this is a high turnout or simply people looking at the forecast (given it's so much easier to get up-to-date weather details now than it was even 10 years ago.)


And Sheilbh? One south-west voter reporting that when he voted there was one other voter and three dogs - it seems he had your share.



*One poster at least stated that he'd voted early because there was supposed to be a blizzard later...

[Sheilbh]

Amazing stat that this is the first election since 1959 without Ken Clarke as a candidate.

[Josquius]

Boris has a cute looking dog. Hope it gets treat better than the country.

[Josquius]

Super high turn out in London it seems. Normal elsewhere. The weather has kept fine.
Lots of stories of people being turned away

[Tamas]

Super high turn out in London it seems. Normal elsewhere. The weather has kept fine.
Lots of stories of people being turned away

Oh no they had to PROVE THEIR IDENTITY TO CAST A VOTE IN A NATIONAL ELECTION?!!

:p

[Agelastus]

Super high turn out in London it seems. Normal elsewhere. The weather has kept fine.
Lots of stories of people being turned away

Not much in the mainstream yet by the look of it. While I am quite concerned by some of it (such as the people told to come back later while the reason for their names being crossed out was checked) I must admit to having no sympathy for the second person spoken about in the article I have just read (she received a postal vote and just binned the paperwork without checking anything concerning the mistake.)

[Sheilbh]

I'd agree with that generally. However there is a big "unless the situation materially changes" which brexit definitely counts for.
Also would hope any future referenda are done properly unlike the brexit ref. Massive controls on fake news, significantly more than 50%+1 required, etc...

Agree on the situation materially changing. I always saw the Brexit referendum as England's part of the vote on the union: would enough English voters prioritise the union. And the answer was no.

Totally disagree on a supermajority.

But I think one of the big issues with Brexit has been around loser's consent, which I think changed after the 2017 election.

Not much in the mainstream yet by the look of it. While I am quite concerned by some of it (such as the people told to come back later while the reason for their names being crossed out was checked) I must admit to having no sympathy for the second person spoken about in the article I have just read (she received a postal vote and just binned the paperwork without checking anything concerning the mistake.)

Yeah. I could be wrong but it sounds a little bit "BRING PENS!"

Super high turn out in London it seems. Normal elsewhere. The weather has kept fine.

Weather in London was fine. Is now bucketing it down. I got drenched on the walk from the bus-stop.

Oh no they had to PROVE THEIR IDENTITY TO CAST A VOTE IN A NATIONAL ELECTION?!!

IT'S AN AFFRONT TO OUR LIBERTY!!

Valmy, to me! Saw some statisticians casting serious doubt on how YouGov's MRP's are calculating the Lib Dem vote. They think they may be underestimating it.

[Josquius]

As expected reports coming in of the tories breaking more laws and continuing to campaign today. Anti Corbyn trucks driving around outside polling stations 😔

https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/illegal-posters-attacking-jeremy-corbyn-17409755?fbclid=IwAR12kK-yoJEAstIpXdu-8OlyC5RzrYUpYWSCWgbFpgSKgbjBO1vkSkRnsj8

I expect a thorough investigation and a £2000 fine sometime next year.

[Sheilbh]

Ten minutes until Sir John Curtice!

Two quite specific thoughts. It's going to be weird watching Huw Edwards not David Dimbleby. And there must be appoint in the afternoon when Sir John Curtice's witchcraft give him a result - which he just knows and sits on for hours. I find it kind of odd.