Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

 


I can only laugh at how low things have sunk.

[garbon]

I can only laugh at how low things have sunk.

Yes, it is that or weep profusely.

[Josquius]

I wonder whether part of their desperation to push this through in October is all those fake news tracts being widely shared about the Lisbon Treaty coming into force in 2020 and causing all manner of bad things.

I doubt it, quitlings show a remarkable ability to rewrite history and pretend things were never said so it doesn't matter if they're proven wrong. But still. Its interesting.

[Zanza]

Work and Pensions Secretary and moderate fig leaf Amber Rudd resigns from government and party.

Supposedly May is leading an initiative to restore the whip to the purged MPs, so I guess she might be next.

[Tamas]

I wonder whether part of their desperation to push this through in October is all those fake news tracts being widely shared about the Lisbon Treaty coming into force in 2020 and causing all manner of bad things.

I doubt it, quitlings show a remarkable ability to rewrite history and pretend things were never said so it doesn't matter if they're proven wrong. But still. Its interesting.

Super-quick googling says the Lisbon Treaty has been in effect since 2009.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I wonder whether part of their desperation to push this through in October is all those fake news tracts being widely shared about the Lisbon Treaty coming into force in 2020 and causing all manner of bad things.

I doubt it, quitlings show a remarkable ability to rewrite history and pretend things were never said so it doesn't matter if they're proven wrong. But still. Its interesting.

Super-quick googling says the Lisbon Treaty has been in effect since 2009.

Many years in the future for people living in the 1950s 

[Tamas]

 

[The Brain]

I wonder whether part of their desperation to push this through in October is all those fake news tracts being widely shared about the Lisbon Treaty coming into force in 2020 and causing all manner of bad things.

I doubt it, quitlings show a remarkable ability to rewrite history and pretend things were never said so it doesn't matter if they're proven wrong. But still. Its interesting.

Super-quick googling says the Lisbon Treaty has been in effect since 2009.

I don't think mouth-breathing brexiters check their fake news stories.

[Richard Hakluyt]

This is about so much more than brexit now. If Johnson is successful then the UK will be going down the Orban route. As I said earlier, with fptp Johnson can win in perpetuity if he can get a solid 35%; the tories are currently on 35% in the polls despite all the fuckups.

[Josquius]

The desperate scramble for seats leads to another attack upon our institutions as the Tories plan to unseat Bercow:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49624334

[Agelastus]

The desperate scramble for seats leads to another attack upon our institutions as the Tories plan to unseat Bercow:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49624334

It's a disturbing escalation (if it happens and is not just pre-election hot air) but in many respects this has been coming for years; ever since Labour MPs broke convention back in 2009 by backing a candidate for Speaker that the Tory party (whose turn it was to have the Speaker's position) did not want and who its MPs did not trust.

The Tories made a brief effort to try and remove him as Speaker back in 2015 after all although it got nowhere.

[Agelastus]

This is about so much more than brexit now. If Johnson is successful then the UK will be going down the Orban route. As I said earlier, with fptp Johnson can win in perpetuity if he can get a solid 35%; the tories are currently on 35% in the polls despite all the fuckups.

I think all poll figures at the moment should be taken with a pinch of salt; they have not been overly reliable over the last few years.

And while one poll released yesterday gives the Tories a 10 point lead another today gives them a 3 point lead.

I believe it will be another chaotic election with no certainty of the result until after counting is at least half completed. Hence the political manoeuvers over the date. Boris doesn't have a majority now and would probably lose a confidence vote; conversely, given the current situation, there is no way for Labour or any other opposition party to win a confidence vote (as Corbyn will not step aside.) Effectively we have a Prime-Minister but no government* or alternative government with an election delayed due to politicians being willing to exploit the flaws of the Fixed Term Parliament Act.

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*We have ministers, but with no actual way of getting any new items through parliament without the support (even by abstention) of at least one of the opposition parties they are effectively nothing more than civil servants/caretakers at the moment. All the increased spending, for example, is dependent on the Finance Bill from the next budget being passed. Which doesn't look likely given the current composition of the House.

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Moreover, I do wonder what all the seemingly delusional idiots in Parliament who appear to have made all these plans for preventing a no-deal Brexit by legislation without ever having considered that the EU might say "no" to another extension are thinking now -

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/france-says-eu-wont-approve-brexit-delay-amid-major-nodeal-prep-underway-093156344.html

France declared that it, as well as the European Union, will not allow Britain to have an extension beyond the 31 October Brexit deadline.

In an interview with Europe 1 radio, France's foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said: "It's very worrying. The British must tell us what they want. We are not going to do (extend) this every three months."

Of course, given the "indicative votes" that were held earlier this year the current Parliament cannot tell the EU what they want as they've voted against every option. They just know they don't want what Boris (apparently) wants.

Now France (and by extension the EU) may be bluffing and France may not have the political pull in the EU to back this statement, but they certainly were not happy about the last extension; gambling on this being a bluff now as Labour will be doing if they block an October election again on Monday (either by voting against or abstaining) seems to be quite a risk.

Will holding an election in November be enough of a change of position to "as things stand" (using the phrasing the politico.eu article on this story uses) to satisfy France?

Of course, if the polls and voting models are right we are heading for another hung Parliament so it may not matter which way Labour votes on Monday anyway...

[Tamas]

I have no doubt the EU just wants to see as gone already, but they will not deny an extension - that would make the no deal ordeal their fault, and they won't choose that. Not after the great PR victory for the EU Brexit has turned out to be. Why turn it upside down at the last moment and make Britain the PR winner?

[Iormlund]

France doesn't need to convince anyone. Every country has a veto over extending the deadline.

[The Brain]

I have no doubt the EU just wants to see as gone already, but they will not deny an extension - that would make the no deal ordeal their fault, and they won't choose that. Not after the great PR victory for the EU Brexit has turned out to be. Why turn it upside down at the last moment and make Britain the PR winner?

Within the UK EU will be blamed regardless, and outside the UK everyone knows it's the UK's fault.