Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

Isn't that already the rule?
There's been loads of cases of people running into trouble over it.
Particularly awful is it restricts love to the rich.

[Richard Hakluyt]

It was £24k iirc and does not apply to EU citizens until/if we leave.

[crazy canuck]

Good article in the Guardian weekly about how a non confidence vote could bring down this government.  The key strategic mistake they have identified the PM made was not keeping people in cabinet who are now free to vote against him and likely will.  According to the Guardian's math, that would be enough to tip the balance.

[Josquius]

The deciding factor won't be tory rebels but Labour rebels.
An awful lot of careerists in the party worried of losing their seat if they're seen to impede brexit in any way.

[crazy canuck]

The deciding factor won't be tory rebels but Labour rebels.
An awful lot of careerists in the party worried of losing their seat if they're seen to impede brexit in any way.

That is going to be an issue for sure and the only reason the non confidence vote has not already been held.   

[PJL]

I'm not sure having an election before Brexit is a good idea anyway. Actually, I'm not sure if having an election at all right now is a good thing, I'd much prefer a referendum.

[Iormlund]

I'm not sure having an election before Brexit is a good idea anyway. Actually, I'm not sure if having an election at all right now is a good thing, I'd much prefer a referendum.

Boris is transparently trying to have a No Deal exit. It's not like Remainers have a lot of choices here.

[crazy canuck]

I'm not sure having an election before Brexit is a good idea anyway. Actually, I'm not sure if having an election at all right now is a good thing, I'd much prefer a referendum.

I agree that an election based on a single issue like this can create its own problems.  But I think all other options are now gone.   The current PM has already declared he is carrying out the democratic will.  The only hope now is that he thinks he has a political advantage by calling a general election on the issue or, if not, he is forced to do so through a non confidence vote.

[Josquius]

Le sigh.
Right out of the nazi playbook

BBC News - Boris Johnson: Brexit opponents 'collaborating' with EU
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49348072

[Valmy]

I hate to break it to the PM but even if Brexit happens the UK will still need to collaborate with the EU on most things.

[crazy canuck]

Boris' big play is to convince the EU that he really means it when he says he will leave with no deal if a better deal cannot be negotiated. The problem he has is it is hard to bluff after you have already shown your cards.  Blaming others for showing the cards doesn't work either.  Your opponent (holding a pair of aces) knows what cards you hold regardless of who told them.

[The Minsky Moment]

The bigger problem is that even if he isn't bluffing the EU won't care. No deal Brexit is an annoyance at worst to the rest of the EU bar Ireland. The political fallout from caving to BoJo and renegotiating the entire deal is a worse outcome.

[Iormlund]

Yeah. No Deal will cost us money. Giving in will gut the Single Market, on which our entire prosperity is based.

[crazy canuck]

The bigger problem is that even if he isn't bluffing the EU won't care. No deal Brexit is an annoyance at worst to the rest of the EU bar Ireland. The political fallout from caving to BoJo and renegotiating the entire deal is a worse outcome.

I think it was the Guardian Weekly, perhaps the Economist, that had a great cartoon about that.  Boris is sitting in a small boat riding on the back of a large EU sailing ship, threatening the EU that if they don't give him a bigger boat he will jump out of his existing boat into the sea, which is infested with sharks awaiting his arrival. 

[Richard Hakluyt]

I think he doesn't care whether the EU caves or not. The important thing is that he gets all the brexiteer votes in the next election; he can get these by getting the EU to back down or by blaming no-deal on their putative intransigence.