Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

Stop with the naysaying! If you will it, it will be ok!


Besides, note how the past year or so, the Leave goalposts have been moved from "it'll be the easiest thing in the world" to "it won't be THAT bad, we have survived WW2 as well!"

[Zanza]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/29/dominic-raab-uk-will-be-better-able-to-negotiate-with-eu-after-no-deal-brexit

Dominic Raab has claimed Britain will be in a better position to negotiate a "good deal" with the European Union if it crashes out of the bloc before the end of October.

The foreign secretary believes a no-deal scenario could provide more leverage in the context of a free trade agreement and resolve long-standing issues such as the Irish backstop.

So why not crash out tomorrow?
I hope someone explained to him, that Ireland or e.g. the regional parliament of Wallonia will then have a veto...

The MP for Esher and Walton in Surrey also suggested the EU's "stubborn" behaviour would be responsible if the UK left without a deal

[Tamas]

The MP for Esher and Walton in Surrey also suggested the EU's "stubborn" behaviour would be responsible if the UK left without a deal

Well that is a given. In their future rhetoric, I mean.

One of the great things about this whole anti-EU bullshit is that it won't stop giving just because we leave. The EU can continue being the major barrier in front of Empire 2.0

[Zanza]

The EU can continue being the major barrier in front of Empire 2.0

But...

Raab added there was a mandate for a no-deal Brexit and "Brussels isn't the only game in town", with opportunities for trade deals with the US, Latin America and Asia.

[mongers]

The EU can continue being the major barrier in front of Empire 2.0

But...

Raab added there was a mandate for a no-deal Brexit and "Brussels isn't the only game in town", with opportunities for trade deals with the US, Latin America and Asia.

What a tosser, it's not that he doesn't know the reality of the situation, but that he and his fellow ministers are intentionally choosing the populist bullshit route.

[Valmy]

Yeah Europe is not going anywhere and it is always going to have a large impact on the economic life of the UK. It is just soon the UK will have considerably less control and power over this impact.

[Tamas]

Boris is really doubling down on the game of chicken, with his spokesperson confirming he won't meet EU leaders until they drop the idea of the backstop.

[The Minsky Moment]

Dear Boris - we note your concern about the backstop.
We are willing to drop the backstop and replace it with an "embankment" 
Admittedly it will be similar to a backstop, however, all measurements will be converted into imperial.

[The Minsky Moment]

Before you laugh, that would work on Trump.

[Tamas]

https://politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/07/26/week-in-review-brexit-deja-vu-but-with-messier-hair

The only thing that's changed is the hair. Everything else is precisely the same. We seem to have gaslighted ourselves so badly that we don't even realise we're saying the same things today that we did three years ago.

You wake up in the morning. The same godawful news reports on the radio. The same meaningless debates on the evening news. It's like we're trapped in some sort of political purgatory

...

They say the same now. Having Vote Leave in charge will make them 'own' Brexit.
...
Maybe they will own it. Maybe this is the defining moment of Brexit policy, which will test the proposition to its limits, in its idealised form, leaving it truly defeated if it does fall apart.

But let's face it. That's unlikely. It's a religion, not an argument. That's why the only justification that can be found for why Johnson would be successful is 'optimism' - which operates in this context like some kind of magic spell.

There will be one difference, though. If they fail, it won't be blamed on themselves, as it was on May. It'll be blamed on Europe for refusing to give in to everything they wanted. And it'll be blamed on Remainers at home, whether in other parties, or the media, or parliament, or the civil service. It's never, ever their fault.

Johnson's apparent optimism is now screeched at us hourly with an alarming manic energy, like a friend going through a divorce who shouts "I'm fine" while looking on the verge of tears. But even this is not new.

..

We already tried optimism. Sweet lord above, we tried it for those long painful months of late 2016 and 2017, when a constant flurry of myth-making and nonsense was substituted for a meaningful negotiating strategy.

We've also tried the domestic bullying, the attempt to portray scrutiny as treason, the subtle and not-so-subtle references to Remainers as traitors or people lacking in national self-esteem.

And we've tried the threats to the EU, upon which Johnson's current strategy appears to be based. He has set a high baseline for talks - the complete rejection of the backstop - in the expectation that playing hardball will make the EU budge.

Again - tell me if you've heard this one before - it didn't work last time. Davis promised the issue of sequencing would be the 'row of the summer' in 2017. It lasted about an hour. He insisted that Brussels needed to be faced down. "They will come to us eventually, we just need to hold our nerve." That proved false too. They didn't blink first. We blinked first. Over and over again.

Why? Because they have a strategic advantage based on size, capacity, preparation and default-outcome continuity. It isn't complicated. If you put down the crack-pipe of optimism and look at the situation dispassionately, the reason for the imbalanced dynamic is obvious.

So here we are, going through all of it again, as if for the first time. The cheering in the Commons, the swagger of those who have already been proved wrong on limitless occasions, the fake-enthusiasm, the hasty shushing of any mention of no-deal problems, that quivering sense of faith which tries to look like certainty but comes across more like emotional fragility.

It is all exactly the same as before, and regardless of elections or majorities or anything else, it'll end the same way: because Brexit is, simply put, a really silly idea. That's it, at base.

You can sell it how you like, or make it a matter of national destiny, or even use it to develop a culture war, but it won't change that central problem: It's just not a very good idea.

[Tamas]

Before you laugh, that would work on Trump.

To be fair, I think Boris is much smarter than Trump, although that is not a high bar at all. He is just lazy and sleazy and with no apparent morals.

He can still develop into the dangerous version of Trump, precisely because his total lack of morals and extreme self-obsessedness is not being constrained by stupidity, but I think he lacks the stamina for it. I think he will soon turn into the dog who finally caught the car he was chasing.

[Valmy]

You can sell it how you like, or make it a matter of national destiny, or even use it to develop a culture war, but it won't change that central problem: It's just not a very good idea.

Wow. That is a great line.

[Tamas]

Yes.


Also I have just come to a realisation: the next election will present the alternative of Johnson vs. Corbyn. With the utterly right-wing government assembled by Johnson, that is a terrifying prospect.

I mean, I hope the LibDems will do well, if I have my citizenship by that time I will definitely vote on them, but I can't see how they would grow immediately big enough to have a majority, and Corbyn will not play secondary to them in a coalition, so there we go.

[Iormlund]

The company's chief executive, Carlos Tavares, told the Financial Times the business would switch to a plant in southern Europe to build Vauxhall Astra and Opel Astra

[Valmy]

Hey people tried to warn them about Corbyn.